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DRaysBay Prospect Predictions Series: The 2011 Draft

By Michael Valancius

As you have undoubtedly heard, RaysProspects.com is running out there prospect predictions, as they do every year. Here at DRaysBay, we have decided to complement that predictions series by addition our own. The format is essentially the same, except instead of asking the questions to bloggers, the questions will be asked to a handful of prospect experts. Each of the experts was asked the same seven questions, and the answers to one of the questions will be reviewed each day for the next week.

After the jump is a list of the participants, today's question, and their answers.

The experts that decided to take part in the list are as follows: Jim Callis of Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Frankie Piliere of Scout.com, David Rawnsley of Perfect Game, and John Sickels of Minor League Ball.

Here is today's question, followed by the answers:

1. In the 2011 draft, the Rays possessed a historic seven supplemental first round picks. Which of these picks was your favorite?

Jim Callis: I'll go with Tyler Goeddel, and not just because he had the highest price tag ($1.5 million). He's an ultraprojectable player who really fits the third-base profile with bat speed, power potential, arm strength and athleticism. I also like Brandon Martin and Grayson Garvin a lot as well.

Kevin Goldstein: I like Goeddel the best of the group, but I do think we have to be realistic about what all of these picks mean. I wrote an article last year about these picks and how they anything but guarantee a bunch of future big league players for the Rays. There's just not a good track record for picks in the 30-50 range.

Frankie Piliere: I'm a big Tyler Goeddel fan. I love the combination of athleticism, projection, and present hit tool.

David Rawnsley: The Rays paid a big chunk of money for him ($1.5M) but I’m a big fan of Tyler Goeddel. We first got to know the Goeddel family at Perfect Game when his brother, RHP Erik Goeddel (now with the Mets), was a freshman back in the early 2000’s. David Goeddel, Tyler and Erik’s dad, is a legend in the biotech field and it’s a great family.

Tyler has huge projection and can probably play almost any position on the field athletically. He’s a 6.6 type of runner with the arm strength to play any position and a smooth, low tension right handed swing. All he’s lacking right now is physical strength; if he’d gone to college scouts would have immediately tabbed him as a sure-fire first round pick in three years.
I also like Grayson Garvin in much the same way I liked Lenny Linsky as a second round pick. The Rays pick plenty of young toolsy high school players and have a tremendous depth in starting pitching. Drafting high chance potential mature pitchers fills in potential holes in the system and creates assets for Andrew Friedman to deal with.

John Sickels: Of the supplemental picks, I think you have to look at Jeff Ames as a sleeper of a sort. It is easy to overlook him due to the ugly 7.12 ERA in rookie ball, but 1) his K/BB ratio was excellent at 39/7, 2) his ERA was inflated by a couple of bad games, 3) the scouting reports indicate good arm strength. He needs to polish up his changeup to remain a starter but I think he has sleeper potential.

I like Kes Carter too as a guy with solid across-the-board tools although he might end up as a tweener type. Tyler Goeddel's tools and offensive potential would have gotten him into the regular first round in many draft classes, so he's not really a sleeper, but I like him a lot too.


I'd like to thank these experts for choosing to participate. The next question will be posted tomorrow, so be sure to check it out!

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