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This is purely speculation, but we may have a much clearer vantage point about first base once the week is over. The Brewers have emerged as the Rays' greatest nuisance in finding a first baseman, having already made an offer to Corey Hart (which was expected), and reportedly shown interest in trade targets Logan Morrison and Ike Davis.
Here's how the first base market is shaping up as we enter the third day of the Winter Meetings, with tweets and commentary. In Part 1, I provided steamer projections to provide a little context when comparing one to another. This time I'm using our early Christmas present, the new Fangraphs spray charts, to display each player's range and consistency at first base over the last two seasons.
Source: Andrew Friedman is on the phone
— Dave Brownyonvirgin (@AnswerDave) December 11, 2013
He says hi.
Ike Davis - Rays looking likely
Andrew's not dishing on what he's up to, but it's been understood that the Brewers are in on Davis as their fall back for Corey Hart:
If #Brewers find out they're not signing Hart, sound positioned to move quickly on Ike Davis. Have done extensive background work on him.
— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) December 11, 2013
But this is new -- the Brewers might actually be out on Ike, with an offer lower than what at least one other team could offer.
Source: Mets asked Brewers for young, controllable pitching for Ike - Thornburg among others. MIL said no and were told they're out.
— Jim Duquette (@Jim_Duquette) December 11, 2013
There's no doubt the Rays have lots of young pitching, more because they're hoarders though, normally dealing to acquire more. Perhaps there was a change of direction for a controllable first baseman.
As mentioned above, here's some brief fielding data on Ike:
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.
Corey Hart - has offer from Brewers
According to Tom Haudricourt, the former Milwaukee outfielder has an offer in hand from his old club, and the Brewers are holding off their decision to make a trade or not based on his decision.
They want him back.
#brewers are working to try to secure a return for free agent corey hart, who they love.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2013
Don't be surprised if free agent 1B Corey Hart makes his decision tonight. #Brewers still in play.
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) December 11, 2013
It's my belief that #Brewers have told Corey Hart what they'd be willing to do. A matter of accepting it or not. If not, trade for 1B.
— Tom (@Haudricourt) December 10, 2013
He hasn't made his decision as of this morning, but McCalvy's tweet seems to indicate the Brewers are but one team involved.
Update: confirmed, there are multiple teams.
multiple teams are in on corey hart. relationship with #brewers is strong but others also in with offers.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2013
I'm somewhat surprised that teams are already able to make a determination on Hart's knee after he was cleared for baseball activites only a week ago, but the offer is surely on the Brewers terms and without many concessions.
Harts fielding graph is really just 2012, due to the surgery.
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.
James Loney - Pirates interested; Rays waiting
The Pirates GM is on the record saying Gaby Sanchez is not the answer. After taking a gander around the league, it looks like Pittsburgh has turned back to Loney, who had scared them off with lofty contract demands last week. They may be the only team willing to come close to his AAV of $8-9M over a few years of contract security. For now, the option is just back on the table for the Buccos.
Pirates are resuming talks here about possibly signing James Loney.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 10, 2013
This graph was linked this morning, but wow, Loney can field just about anywhere.
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.
Mitch Moreland - I hope not
Add another name tip #Rays 1B field. Could match up with #Rangers for Mitch Moreland.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 10, 2013
or
One possible #Rays-#Rangers scenario is a Moreland for Matt Joyce swap. But no indication that's gained traction.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 10, 2013
Just seems like speculation to me, but it's in the twittersphere. I've already said what I want to say about Moreland, which is to find someone different.
The bat carries all the problems and frustrations of what Joyce already gives us -- which hasn't been a joyful experience, peaks and valleys of an incredible leadoff hitter and a guy who needs benched -- but with the fielding range of Loney there's a discussion to be had.
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.
Logan Morrison - Seattle is your mystery team
The Rays have not been mentioned much since the weekend rumor that Miami held an interest in Sean Rodriguez, which also reported the Rays were in on Morrison.
Hottest teams on LoMo, per source: #Brewers, #Pirates, #Mariners. Others also involved.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 10, 2013
Like Hart, his fielding graph has a more limited sample size due to right knee surgery.
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.
Michael Morse - stock falling
So, the Michael Morse market has been suspiciously quiet, but we're finally getting some waves:
Mike Morse is said by teams to be looking for $7m/$8m range in his one-year deal.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 10, 2013
ZiPS actually doesnt' see Morse much different than last year - 248/300/418 in Seattle, 98 OPS+, horrible defense, 0.0 WAR.
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 10, 2013
Ouch. I think Morse can put together a great season or two, but it's a roll of the dice when that'll be; however, there is one team interested.
Confirming @brianmctaggart: baseball source says "mutual interest" for Astros and Michael Morse
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) December 10, 2013
More on Morse Beyond the Box Score. His fielding data at first base was not readily available, but here's his outfield plays made and missed.
Mark Reynolds - a backup plan
He has a bat with a better projection than Morrison, and set for a rebound season after a dramatic power outage last year. Reynolds should fall through the cracks this off season, so the Rays might be able to land whim on the cheap if things don't break out way.
#rays are casting wide net in search for 1B types. another free agent who interests them is power bat mark reynolds.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2013
The fielding range is much better than I expected.
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.
Mark Trumbo - traded once
Kevin Towers pulled off a rather unpopular three-team trade yesterday, sending off 90-mph pitching prospect Tyler Skaags and 4th OF Adam Eaton, both of whom have big believers and big opponents, for Mark Trumbo, slotting him into the outfield in a press for power.
Trumbo is blocked at first base by Paul Goldschmidt and is an awkward fit to say the least, so if you need me, I'll be dreaming of scenarios where the Rays can land one of the slugging first basemen. I wouldn't put it past Towers to flip a huge trade piece shortly after his acquisition.
Source: FanGraphs
Probability breakdowns for plays made and missed are available here.