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Rays playoff odds, 10 games left

Al Messerschmidt

The six team race for two spots continues. Here's how each team fared over the past four days.

Wins Losses Games Back
Rays 2 2 -
Rangers 2 2 -
Indians 2 2 0.5
Orioles 2 1 2.5
Royals 2 1 3.0
Yankees 1 2 3.5

The Indians, as is well documented and much discussed, have the easiest path with Houston, Chicago, and Minnesota left to play. The Rays are about to play a four game series against the Orioles, and then will face the Yankees. The Royals and Rangers start a three game series tonight as well. Clarity will come soon.

Here's where the wildcard odds now stand, according to FanGraphs playoff odds and Baseball Prospectus's Pecota' playoff odds.

Sept. 9 Sept. 13 Sept. 16 Sept. 20
Coin flip 52.5% 50.1% 60.1% 62.0%
Season to-date 48.6% 45.8% 52.6% 49.3%
FanGraphs 61.4% 63.9% 61.8% 65.2%
Pecota 67.2% 62.8% 78.6% 70.0%

These odds reflect the fact that when you control your own destiny, treading water isn't the worst thing in the world. The standings haven't really changed, but there are now fewer games for the chasing teams to make up ground in. The coin flip standings most clearly show this aspect of a limping race. Season to-date rankings weigh more heavily recent record, and both FanGraphs and Pecota estimate team strength based on projection systems. The reward the Rays in their simulations for being a good team. Onward.

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