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Rays playoff odds, six games left

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

How do you dramatically improve your chances of making the playoffs? Simple. You walk off from a massive 18 inning game using almost your entire bullpen and one of your starters, then you win on the back of a near complete game by one of your pitching studs, then you win despite starting a pitcher with only one career appearance above double-A, then you win yet another walk-off, this time with a pinch hit home run. All against a playoff-dreaming rival.

With six games to go, the playoff hunt has essentially become a three team race. The Rays will play the Yankees and the Blue Jays, while Cleveland gets Chicago and Toronto, and Texas faces Houston and Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Wins Losses Games Back
Rays 4 0 +1
Indians 3 0 -
Rangers 2 2 1
Royals 3 1 3
Yankees 2 1 4
Orioles 0 4 5

Yes, both Texas and Cleveland have a marginally easier schedule, but it's better to be two games ahead than two games behind but playing a bad team. Here's where the wildcard odds now stand, according to FanGraphs playoff odds and Baseball Prospectus's Pecota' playoff odds.

Sept. 9 Sept. 13 Sept. 16 Sept. 20 Sept. 24
Coin flip 52.5% 50.1% 60.1% 62.0% 90.9%
Season to-date 48.6% 45.8% 52.6% 49.3% 82.2%
FanGraphs 61.4% 63.9% 61.8% 65.2% 90.7%
Pecota 67.2% 62.8% 78.6% 70.0% 90.1%

I'll take that. Now sweep the Yankees.

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