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DRaysBay 2014-2015 Offseason Simulation Poll: How did we do?

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Joe Robbins

Before we ask you how you think we did, let's review.

Major League Roster

Player Salary Player Salary
C1 Ryan Hanigan $3,500,000 SP Alex Cobb $4,500,000
1B Paul Goldschmidt $3,100,000 SP Drew Smyly $3,000,000
2B Nick Franklin $550,000 SP Jake Odorizzi $550,000
SS Yunel Escobar $5,000,000 SP Justin Grimm $550,000
3B Evan Longoria $11,000,000 SP Kwan-Hyun Kim $2,900,000
LF Wil Myers $550,000 DL Matt Moore $3,100,000
CF Desmond Jennings $3,200,000
RF Kevin Kiermaier $550,000 RP Rafael Soriano $10,000,000
DH Michael Cuddyer $11,000,000 RP Jake McGee $3,800,000
RP Brad Boxberger $550,000
C2 Jose Molina $2,750,000 RP Jared Hughes $1,100,000
IF Logan Forsythe $1,200,000 RP Louis Coleman $700,000
IF Yonder Alonso $1,600,000 RP Jeff Beliveau $550,000
OF David DeJesus $5,125,000 RP Cesar Ramos $1,300,000

Total Salary: $83,125,000

Again, the budget the Rays were given was $84 million, and we took advantage, including trading $1.4M in cash to facilitate the trade of Sean Rodriguez for prospects.

Batting Order

by Steamer wOBA

CF Desmond Jennings - .310
1B Paul Goldschmidt - .386
LF Wil Myers - .328
3B Evan Longoria - .340
DH Michael Cuddyer - .323
2B Nick Franklin - .306
RF Kevin Kiermaier - .305
C1 Ryan Hanigan - .286
SS Yunel Escobar - .296

Steamer does not come out sexy for the bottom half of the order, but some platoon work should help things along, particularly from Yonder Alonso (.325) and David DeJesus (.306). All should improve slightly with a handedness advantage. The rest of the bench is Logan Forsythe (who knows what his bat will do this year) and Jose Molina (who doesn't own a bat anymore - budget cuts).

I'm giving the starting nod to Nick Franklin at second base in hopes that Derek Shelton can begin his magic and help the switch hitter step up his game. Wil Myers moves to left field, presumably because he could defend better than Cuddyer would in left, though I expect David Dejesus could push his way into the conversation.


Kim Kwang-hyun -- iamkoream.com

Rotation

by Steamer ERA - FIP

RH Alex Cobb - 3.45 - 3.33
LH Drew Smyly - 3.51 - 3.85
RH Jake Odorizzi - 3.96 - 4.34
LH Kwan-Hyun Kim - ? - ?
RH Justin Grimm - 4.24 - 4.32

LH Matt Moore (DL) - 4.03 - 4.29

Kim has no projection just yet, but the Fake Rays think they can teach him a change up, and I gave Grimm a 1.00 penalty for switching from relief to starting again. There's six names because Moore is recovering from TJ, and will take someone's place in the rotation down the road, given injury or incompetence. If need be, Nate Karns is next in depth, with a 4.38 - 4.47 projection.

The Bullpen looks solid with MFIKY Rafael Soriano back at 2/3 his contract in Washington. McGee/Boxberger are high leverage, and the rest of the roll players will fill in nicely.

Salary Commitments

Player 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
C1 Ryan Hanigan $3,500,000 $3,700,000 ($3,750,000)
1B Paul Goldschmidt $3,100,000 $5,750,000 $8,750,000 $11,000,000
2B Nick Franklin $550,000 Pre-Arb Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
SS Yunel Escobar $5,000,000
3B Evan Longoria $11,000,000 $11,500,000 $13,000,000 $13,500,000 $14,500,000
LF Wil Myers $550,000 Pre-Arb Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
CF Desmond Jennings $3,200,000 Arbitration Arbitration
RF Kevin Kiermaier $550,000 Pre-Arb Pre-Arb Arbitration Arbitration
DH Michael Cuddyer $11,000,000 $11,000,000
C2 Jose Molina $2,750,000
IF Logan Forsythe $1,200,000 Arbitration Arbitration
IF Yonder Alonso $1,600,000 Arbitration Arbitration
OF David DeJesus $5,125,000 ($6,500,000)
SP Alex Cobb $4,500,000 Arbitration Arbitration
SP Drew Smyly $3,000,000 Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
SP Jake Odorizzi $550,000 Pre-Arb Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
SP Kwan-Hyun Kim $2,900,000 $3,100,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 ($6,000,000)
SP Justin Grimm $550,000 Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
DL Matt Moore $3,100,000 $5,000,000 ($7,000,000) ($9,000,000)
RP Rafael Soriano $10,000,000 $10,000,000
RP Jake McGee $3,800,000 Arbitration
RP Brad Boxberger $550,000 Pre-Arb Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
RP Jared Hughes $1,100,000 Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
RP Louis Coleman $700,000 Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
RP Jeff Beliveau $550,000 Pre-Arb Arbitration Arbitration Arbitration
RP Cesar Ramos $1,300,000 Arbitration

We are rather pleased with the core of players that will be around into 2016 and 2017.

The slew of prospects will inject some life around then as well, including Almora and Jokisch from the Cubs, and Arcia from the Brewers. That's not to mention the power prospect possibilities of Vogelbach, Jones, Roache, and Lambo, or Rays top flight prospects Adames and Gillaspie.


Albert Almora - Photo by Sarah Glenn/Getty Images

Full List of Transactions

We will have a write up on the week's transactions tomorrow, but for now here's a full list of the moves made by the Fake Rays, GM Hatfield, and VP D-Russ.

  • Rays trade P Jeremy Hellickson and OF Mikie Mahtook to the Pirates for OF JaCoby Jones, OF Andrew Lambo and P Jared Hughes
  • Rays exercise the option on IF Ben Zobrist
  • Rays decline the option on P Joel Peralta, making him a free agent
  • Rays trade IF Ben Zobrist and P Taylor Guerreri to the Cubs for OF Albert Almora and 1B Dan Vogelbach
  • Rays trade OF Matt Joyce to the Reds for P Ben Lively and P Ismael Guillon
  • Rays trade 1B James Loney, P Alex Colome, P Steven Geltz, IF Tim Beckham to the Brewers for IF Orlando Arcia, OF Victor Roache, and P David Goforth
  • Rays sign OF Michael Cuddyer to a 2 year $22 million contract
  • Padres trade OF/1B Yonder Alonso to the Rays for OF Kes Carter
  • Rays sign P Rafael Soriano to a 2 year $20 million contract
  • Rays sign P Kwan-Hyun Kim to a 6 year $29 million deal, including two club options
  • Rays sign OF Ryan Ludwick to a minor league contract
  • Cubs trade 1B Paul Goldschmidt, P Eric Jokisch, P Justin Grimm to the Rays for P Chris Archer, P Enny Romero, P Ryne Stanek, 2B Ryan Brett, P Blake Snell, 3B Richie Shaffer, and P Grant Balfour
  • Royals trade P Louis Coleman, P Sam Selman, and P John Lamb to the Rays for IF Sean Rodriguez and $1.4 million
  • Rays trade P Brandon Gomes and OF Brandon Guyer to the Yankees for P Preston Claiborne and OF Ramon Flores
  • Rays sign SS Hiroyuji Nakajima and DH Raul Ibanez (as player/coach!) to a minor league contract

I'm giving those last two minor league deals to myself, as the deadline ended before the Commish was able to approve, but in all likelihood those moves would not have been contested, and it paints the full picture of what GM Hatfield and I were after.

Closing Thoughts

This entire process was a microcosm of the entire offseason within just four days, requiring snap judgements on limited information, and throwing around monopoly money to create the best team possible. And damn was it fun.

Tomorrow we will have analysis from Scott and Ian with a final verdict on whether we improved the farm system and major league roster, or sank the ship we planned of sailing to the World Series. Before all that, though, we would like your opinion.

How did we do?