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Dock of the Rays on the 2015 outfield

An application of regressed splits.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

We're going to continue to spotlight the work done by friend-of-the-site Jason Hanselman, over at Dock of the Rays.

To quote:

It’s probably a small thing, but it always irks me when so-and-so writer or scout says something along the lines of, “(Lefty batter) looks like a really good hitter against righties, but it looks like he’s never going to hit lefties.” The reason I find this so bothersome is that MOST lefties can’t hit lefties. Why take the time to point it out. To show this we can use the matchup tool to look at regressed platoon splits for all batters that received 100 PA or more in 2014. Recall that we’re using these regressed splits to project how a batter will handle the average lefty or righty based on his 2015 Steamer wOBA projection (big ups to that crew, BTW). We’re able to project the matchup based on who the pitcher is, as well, but that won’t be necessary for this exercise.

After some pretty spreadsheets to make the point, Jason gets to the Rays:

On to the Rays hook. Tampa Bay has a veritable wealth of good, but not great outfielders. Once you resign yourself to the fact that the potential return for Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist necessitates them being traded you realize that there are still a ton of moving parts. Take those two off the table and you’re still looking at David DeJesus, Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermaier, and Wil Myers as guys that could be everyday players on a different team. Let’s pluck their wRC+ projections out of the above sheet and also take a look at their defensive value:

One of the goals of sabermetrics is to take all of the attributes of a player and quantify them. This quantification may not be exciting, but it's necessary if you plan to make an informed comparison between two players. Jason's done all the legwork, so this is a must read for anyone playing Rays GM this offseason.