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There are already plenty of projects trying to harness the wisdom of the crowds. Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report uses said wisdom to rate defense based on directly-observed tools, and the FanGraphs Fan Projections shows the voter a player's production from previous years, collects fan projections of basic statistics, and then builds a complete projection from the ground out. While it's often optimistic as far as rate stat goes, it's very good at predicting playing time.
Still, I think there's room for another set of crowd-sourced projections. My suspicion is that we fans are pretty bad at taking everything we see about a player and turning it into a number, but that we're much better at evaluating a predicted trend, one player at a time.
For each player, I've provided their career numbers and their Steamer prediction* (all stats from FanGraphs). All you need to do is say if you think the prediction is too high, about right, or too low (It's okay to not have an opinion. That's an option too.) For players without a major league record, I've omitted the career stats.
Once all the data has been collected, I'll figure out how to scale it, and then adjust the Steamer projections up or down based on your responses. I'll repeat this process during the all-star break using season-to-date stats and rest-of-season predictions.
*I use Steamer because it's available, it's good (especially concerning pitchers where its consideration of fastball velocity may make it the best publicly available projection system), and because "Steamer Cyborg" sounds way cooler "Zips Cyborg" or "Marcel Cyborg."
If you haven't already, make sure to also fill out your predictions for the Rays hitters.
Rays fans, you're my guinea pigs, so let me know anything you think is wrong with the concept, the execution, or the presentation. Please only complete the survey once.
Thanks a ton for participating, guys. Really appreciate it.
