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They've scored only 3.2 runs per game, and two runs or less in half of the fourteen games they've played this season. Only five players have hit at an above average rate, and one of them, Sean Rodriguez, does not play everyday.
Name | PA | wOBA |
Matt Joyce | 41 | 0.451 |
Ben Zobrist | 60 | 0.384 |
Sean Rodriguez | 13 | 0.368 |
Desmond Jennings | 56 | 0.354 |
Evan Longoria | 58 | 0.352 |
James Loney | 50 | 0.301 |
Ryan Hanigan | 33 | 0.267 |
David DeJesus | 34 | 0.257 |
Wil Myers | 50 | 0.248 |
Yunel Escobar | 50 | 0.241 |
Logan Forsythe | 30 | 0.221 |
Brandon Guyer | 11 | 0.196 |
Jose Molina | 15 | 0.059 |
So, is it time to freak out? How much should the first fourteen days of the season change your opinion of an offense? Well, there are smart people standing by to answer that exact question.
Before the season began, the major projection systems looked at each Rays player's prior history and his age, and gave an estimate of what to expect from that player in 2014. Now, both the ZiPS and the Steamer projection system have started incorporating the new information we have from the season into their projections. They know that Wil Myers is currently batting .217/.280/.261. They actually think that the new information is more telling than the old, so they weigh it more heavily. Here's what they predict.
ZiPS:
Player | Original wOBA | RoS wOBA | Difference |
Evan Longoria | 0.354 | 0.355 | 0.001 |
Ben Zobrist | 0.337 | 0.341 | 0.004 |
Matt Joyce | 0.336 | 0.344 | 0.008 |
Wil Myers | 0.331 | 0.328 | -0.003 |
Desmond Jennings | 0.322 | 0.324 | 0.002 |
James Loney | 0.306 | 0.306 | 0 |
Brandon Guyer | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 |
David DeJesus | 0.305 | 0.302 | -0.003 |
Sean Rodriguez | 0.305 | 0.307 | 0.002 |
Yunel Escobar | 0.300 | 0.296 | -0.004 |
Logan Forsythe | 0.292 | 0.287 | -0.005 |
Ryan Hanigan | 0.290 | 0.288 | -0.002 |
Kevin Kiermaier | 0.283 | 0.281 | -0.002 |
Jose Molina | 0.268 | 0.260 | -0.008 |
Average: -.001
Steamer:
Player | Original wOBA | RoS wOBA | Difference |
Evan Longoria | 0.360 | 0.358 | -0.002 |
Ben Zobrist | 0.340 | 0.342 | 0.002 |
Matt Joyce | 0.336 | 0.339 | 0.003 |
Wil Myers | 0.333 | 0.329 | -0.004 |
Desmond Jennings | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0 |
Vince Belnome | 0.313 | 0.311 | -0.002 |
James Loney | 0.311 | 0.312 | 0.001 |
David DeJesus | 0.307 | 0.306 | -0.001 |
Logan Forsythe | 0.305 | 0.301 | -0.004 |
Brandon Guyer | 0.302 | 0.301 | -0.001 |
Yunel Escobar | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 |
Sean Rodriguez | 0.296 | 0.297 | 0.001 |
Ryan Hanigan | 0.288 | 0.288 | 0 |
Kevin Kiermaier | 0.287 | 0.284 | -0.003 |
Jose Molina | 0.270 | 0.265 | -0.005 |
Average: -.001
Both projection systems are discouraged by the Rays slow start, but not by much. They now think that the Rays will be .001 points of wOBA worse than they originally thought. That translates to about 4.7 runs, or half a win over the course of an entire season.
Should you worry? That's really your call. For reference, Matt Moore's season-ending injury is probably about a three-win loss, unless one of his replacements steps up big. Wins matter in a stacked AL East, but don't read TOO much into the slow offensive start.
All stats from FanGraphs.