:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/32975199/20140510_ads_sv7_155.JPG.0.jpg)
The Tampa Bay Rays are on the brink of a very long season. 2009 all over again: a really great team assembled, and nothing doing.
Five and a half games is surmountable in the AL East, which is where the Rays currently are, but more than seven games back might be devastating. How dire is the situation?
The good news is that the division remain's tight, but the Rays have dropped from a coin flip for the playoffs, down to... well... it depends on who you ask.
| 2014 Year to Date | 2014 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||||||
| Team | W | L | W% | GB | EXPW | EXPL | rosW% | DIV | WC | POFF | DOFF | ALDS | ALCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 19 | 18 | .514 | 1.5 | 87.1 | 74.9 | .545 | 48.4 % | 13.8 % | 62.2 % | 55.8 % | 29.5 % | 15.6 % | 9.6 % |
| Toronto | 19 | 20 | .487 | 2.5 | 82.4 | 79.6 | .515 | 16.7 % | 12.5 % | 29.2 % | 22.8 % | 10.6 % | 5.2 % | 2.8 % |
| New York | 19 | 18 | .514 | 1.5 | 82.1 | 79.9 | .504 | 14.4 % | 12.2 % | 26.6 % | 20.6 % | 8.8 % | 3.7 % | 1.9 % |
| Baltimore | 20 | 16 | .556 | 0.0 | 81.2 | 80.8 | .486 | 12.3 % | 10.3 % | 22.6 % | 17.1 % | 6.7 % | 2.9 % | 1.5 % |
| Tampa Bay | 16 | 23 | .410 | 5.5 | 79.9 | 82.1 | .519 | 8.1 % | 7.8 % | 16.0 % | 12.1 % | 5.7 % | 2.8 % | 1.5 % |
| Rnk | Team | Win |
Loss |
Expected Win Pct |
Sim Win |
Sim Loss |
Div Pct |
WC Pct |
 Playoff Pct |
Playoff Pct (Adj) |
WS Win Pct |
1 Day Delta |
7 Day Delta |
| 1 | Boston | 19 | 18 | .526 | 84.6 | 77.4 | 37.2% | 15.2% | 52.4% | 45.0% | 6.5% | 0.5% | 8.6% |
| 2 | New York | 19 | 18 | .513 | 83.4 | 78.6 | 28.0% | 15.8% | 43.8% | 35.9% | 4.4% | -3.4% | -2.6% |
| 3 | Toronto | 19 | 20 | .501 | 80.5 | 81.5 | 12.1% | 11.6% | 23.7% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| 4 | Tampa Bay | 16 | 23 | .522 | 80.0 | 82.0 | 11.5% | 10.7% | 22.2% | 17.0% | 2.3% | -2.7% | -26.3% |
| 5 | Baltimore | 20 | 16 | .474 | 79.7 | 82.3 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 20.7% | 15.7% | 1.1% | -2.3% | 3.4% |
| AL | WS | |
| New York | 6:1 | 12:1 |
| Boston | 13:2 | 14:1 |
| Tampa Bay | 8:1 | 14:1 |
| Baltimore | 15:1 | 25:1 |
| Toronto | 20:1 | 40:1 |
Personally, my gut says the Rays are on the edge. Losing this series to the Mariners could have a lasting impact after failing to take either series in the last home stand.
Of course, if the rest of the division continues to lose games, the fall is stymied. But travelling to the Angels next (a four game set) should be even more difficult than this stop in Seattle.
All of that is to ask, where do you fall on the Rays' current outlook?