The Rays will have a tough time today. Simply put: Jake Odorizzi is no Masahiro Tanaka. The rookie from southern Japan has been unstoppable. By my count, he has faced 1 terrible offense (the Cubs), two decent offenses (the Orioles and Blue Jays), and two great offenses (the Angels and Red Sox). The results have been about the same with each:
|Total||- - -||- - -||5||3||0||35.2||10||9||5||6||46||11.61||1.51||1.26||0.272||88.9%||48.2%||19.2%||2.27||2.96||2.07|
So what's the secret to beating Tanaka? That's the problem. No one knows. There's a chance he's got a reverse platoon split (see Tommy's article), but he's also got a 40% K-rate against righties, so if I'm making wagers, I'm going to be on the 40% K-rate, not the .400 BABIP. Tanaka had a 2.30 ERA in Japan. Over his final 600 IP there, he had about a 1.50 ERA. The guy is good at playing baseball.
But every pitcher can have a bad day. And maybe Odorizzi can have a good day? He hasn't really had a good day since his first day this season. So maybe he's due.