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The Rays will have a tough time today. Simply put: Jake Odorizzi is no Masahiro Tanaka. The rookie from southern Japan has been unstoppable. By my count, he has faced 1 terrible offense (the Cubs), two decent offenses (the Orioles and Blue Jays), and two great offenses (the Angels and Red Sox). The results have been about the same with each:
| Date | Team | Opp | GS | W | L | IP | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/27/2014 | NYY | LAA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15.63 | 5.68 | 1.42 | 0.364 | 93.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.84 | 4.07 | 2.83 |
| 4/22/2014 | NYY | @BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8.59 | 0 | 2.45 | 0.263 | 100.0% | 42.9% | 33.3% | 2.45 | 4.76 | 2.27 |
| 4/16/2014 | NYY | CHC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11.25 | 1.13 | 0 | 0.125 | 100.0% | 46.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.96 |
| 4/9/2014 | NYY | BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12.86 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 0.353 | 75.8% | 38.9% | 25.0% | 3.86 | 2.55 | 1.43 |
| 4/4/2014 | NYY | @TOR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10.29 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.278 | 65.2% | 63.2% | 16.7% | 2.57 | 2.70 | 1.94 |
| Total | - - - | - - - | 5 | 3 | 0 | 35.2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 11.61 | 1.51 | 1.26 | 0.272 | 88.9% | 48.2% | 19.2% | 2.27 | 2.96 | 2.07 |
So what's the secret to beating Tanaka? That's the problem. No one knows. There's a chance he's got a reverse platoon split (see Tommy's article), but he's also got a 40% K-rate against righties, so if I'm making wagers, I'm going to be on the 40% K-rate, not the .400 BABIP. Tanaka had a 2.30 ERA in Japan. Over his final 600 IP there, he had about a 1.50 ERA. The guy is good at playing baseball.
But every pitcher can have a bad day. And maybe Odorizzi can have a good day? He hasn't really had a good day since his first day this season. So maybe he's due.