Evaluating the second base market for the Rays

During this offseason, the Rays traded away their middle infield, sending Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist to the Oakland Athletics. If one of the middle infield question marks was solved quickly with the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera, there is still some uncertainty around the other position.

We don't really know yet if Tampa Bay will stick with the Franklin/Forsythe duo for 2015 and considering their past record in the big leagues, there is no harm to look for other possibilities on the market. First of all, we need to establish the level of these two guys before being able to see if we can find anyone better who would be a realistic choice for the Rays.

Nick Franklin

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2013	102	412	12	38	45	6	0.102	0.274	0.157	0.29	0.225	0.303	0.382	-3.9	-4.7	0.5
2014	28	90	1	7	6	2	0.067	0.356	0.086	0.24	0.16	0.222	0.247	-6.4	1.9	-0.2

Logan Forsythe

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2011	62	169	0	12	12	3	0.071	0.195	0.073	0.269	0.213	0.281	0.287	-7.1	5.7	0.4
2012	91	350	6	45	26	8	0.08	0.163	0.117	0.316	0.273	0.343	0.39	6.6	-6	1.2
2013	75	243	6	22	19	6	0.078	0.222	0.118	0.255	0.214	0.281	0.332	-6.6	-0.2	0
2014	110	336	6	32	26	2	0.074	0.211	0.106	0.268	0.223	0.287	0.329	-7.9	-5.2	-0.2

Clearly these career statistics don't look extremely good, especially when you are trying to replace some guy named Ben Zobrist. If I don't hope much for Forsythe, there is still room for Franklin to improve considering his young age and his good numbers in AAA last season when he still was in the Mariners system:

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	75	333	9	45	47	9	0.141	0.18	0.161	0.34	0.294	0.392	0.455

Now let's see how Forsythe and Franklin projects for the 2015 season according to ZiPS:

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	Def	zWAR
Nick Franklin	565	0.09	0.237	0.123	0.295	0.234	0.305	0.357	2	1.6
Logan Forsythe	357	0.087	0.23	0.117	0.277	0.224	0.301	0.341	3	0.3

Combined, they would be worth a 1.9 WAR with a -1 Def and below average batting numbers overall. Not really the type of players you want to have if you hope to contend in the American League. The thing is that the second base and even shortstop market aren't really overcrowded these days and this year's free agents are not filled with great names.

In spite of this, let's have a look at the remaining free agents at second base and shortstop, according to MLB Trade Rumours:

Second Basemen

Gordon Beckham (28)
Mark Ellis (38)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Jonathan Herrera (30)
Brandon Hicks (29)
Ramon Santiago (35)
Chris Valaika (29)
Rickie Weeks (32)

Shortstops

Everth Cabrera (28)
Jonathan Herrera (30)

Of all these players, Rickie Weeks has arguably the best résumé, although his last good season goes back to 2011 when he posted a .269/.350/.468 20HR/77RBI line for a 3.3 WAR. Since then, he only managed to get 0.9, -0.4 and 1.2 WAR with the Brewers, who decided to not activate their 2015 team option worth 14 million dollars. Gordon Beckham, Rafael Furcal, Everth Cabrera also have some major league experience with past success, but there are not really convincing cases.

So, Tampa Bay should be looking more at trade options than free agents, except if they want to roll the dice with one of the guys mentioned above. Thus, who could they consider as a realistic acquisition and an overall improvement from Franklin/Forsythe?

Tier 1 - Starlin Castro, Danny Espinosa

Starlin Castro

I have always had a soft spot for Starlin Castro ever since he entered the big leagues. He is athletic, spectacular and he has a freaking nice first name. He can hit for contact and a bit of power too, he gets on base and above all, he rebounded very well after a very unsatisfying 2013 season.

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2010	125	506	3	53	41	10	0.057	0.14	0.108	0.346	0.3	0.347	0.408	-0.8	3.6	1.9
2011	158	715	10	91	66	22	0.049	0.134	0.125	0.344	0.307	0.341	0.432	7.8	-0.3	3.1
2012	162	691	14	78	78	25	0.052	0.145	0.147	0.315	0.283	0.323	0.43	-0.5	9.2	3.2
2013	161	705	10	59	44	9	0.043	0.183	0.102	0.29	0.245	0.284	0.347	-24.3	4	0.1
2014	134	569	14	58	65	4	0.062	0.176	0.146	0.337	0.292	0.339	0.438	6.9	2.4	2.9

Last year, he posted a 2.9 WAR, not his career best although he played only 134 games due to a left ankle sprain in September. Aside from this minor injury, Castro can play 162 games a year and has no other record of serious injuries.

I guess that the Cubs would not mind losing Castro in exchange for prospects and maybe some pitching staff (their rotation and bullpen look a bit weak in my opinion). Also, Chicago could still play Javier Baez at shortstop, his native position, and put Arismendy Alcantara at second base. Oh and they also have Addison Russell who is expected to make his debut this year.

As for the Rays, they could acquire a still young and promising player, whose defensive statistics could only become better at second base. Moreover, Castro is locked until 2019 with $47M remaining on his contract, which is in the Rays financial range.

Danny Espinosa

Year	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2010	28	112	6	16	15	0	0.08	0.268	0.233	0.239	0.214	0.277	0.447	-1.7	2.6	0.5
2011	158	658	21	72	66	17	0.087	0.252	0.178	0.292	0.236	0.323	0.414	5.9	3.7	3.2
2012	160	658	17	82	56	20	0.07	0.287	0.155	0.333	0.247	0.315	0.402	-5.6	16.4	3.3
2013	44	167	3	11	12	1	0.024	0.281	0.114	0.202	0.158	0.193	0.272	-14.2	3.7	-0.6
2014	114	364	8	31	27	8	0.049	0.335	0.132	0.319	0.219	0.283	0.351	-10	4.2	0.6

If Castro does not end up in Tampa Bay, the Rays could also be looking towards Washington and Danny Espinosa. The Nationals expect him to start on the bench according to reports in the league, and even if they would be happy to keep him, the Rays could explore a trade idea with Washington for Espinosa and his $1.8M 2015 compensation. Although the Nats do not have Chicago's depth in the middle infield, they still have Dan Uggla who might rebound from his horrendous 2014 concussion season and also Jeff Kobernus who played decently in AAA last year (.257/.338/.359).

On the Rays side, they would acquire a good defensive player, with the ability to hit for some power. Yet his strikeout ratio and on-base percentage aren't really exciting and his 0 WAR combined over the last two seasons doesn't help his case. Although, it could help Tampa to get him at a reasonable value, if they think that he could bounce back to the level of his 2012 & 2011 seasons.

Ultimately, an Espinosa trade would be more difficult to consider because Washington already have a very strong team and I am not sure if the Rays could offer them an interesting compensation in return. Also, the Nationals acquired Yunel Escobar to play second base, so there still might be hope for a Espinosa trade.

Tier 2 - Justin Turner, Darwin Barney

This tier is only composed by Dodgers players, which means that they have depth and could be willing to trade one of their middle infielders hopefully.

Justin Turner

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2011	117	487	4	49	51	7	0.08	0.121	0.097	0.292	0.26	0.334	0.356	-1.7	-9.2	0.5
2012	94	185	2	20	19	1	0.049	0.13	0.123	0.301	0.269	0.319	0.392	-0.7	-2.9	0.2
2013	86	214	2	12	16	0	0.051	0.159	0.105	0.327	0.28	0.319	0.385	-1.1	0	0.6
2014	109	322	7	46	43	6	0.087	0.18	0.153	0.404	0.34	0.404	0.493	21.5	-1.9	3.2

After five season in the MLB, Justin Turner had his breakout season last year, posting a .340/.404/.493 line in 322 plate appearances for a 3.2 WAR. With a utility role in the Dodgers infield, he managed to put up a strong offensive performance rewarded by $2.5M contract for 2015.

Turner had an amazing offensive season and his bat could be very appreciated in the Rays line-up, even if his defence isn't really strong. The question about him is more about his future and potential regression. Justin Turner might very well be one of the top 'regression' candidates for 2015, yet at $2.5M I guess he is worth the risk, even for the Rays. He can play at 1B, 2B and 3B and his career OBP is well above Franklin's.  My main concern is more about how he would do in a full season and in a stronger league.

Nonetheless, Turner might be a good Rays target and the Dodgers wouldn't say no to some pitching upgrades probably and prospects. Also, even with Turner gone they would still have infield depth with the young Alex Guerrero and Darwin Barney.

Darwin Barney

The Dodgers acquired Barney at the trade deadline last season from the Cubs and he avoided arbitration last month with a $2.525M compensation for the upcoming season.

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2010	30	85	0	12	2	0	0.071	0.141	0.051	0.284	0.241	0.294	0.291	-3.5	5.2	0.5
2011	143	571	2	66	43	9	0.039	0.117	0.078	0.31	0.276	0.313	0.353	-8.4	8.7	1.9
2012	156	588	7	73	44	6	0.056	0.099	0.1	0.273	0.254	0.299	0.354	-13	17	2.4
2013	141	555	7	49	41	4	0.065	0.115	0.096	0.222	0.208	0.266	0.303	-26.7	14.7	0.5
2014	94	262	3	24	23	1	0.065	0.13	0.101	0.267	0.241	0.3	0.342	-5.8	7.8	1.1

Barney gets most of his value thanks to his defence. Among all second basemen, he has the best UZR/150 since 2012 as Eno Sarris explained after his trade. Yes, the best UZR/150 in the league.

Even if his offensive  numbers are below league average, he would still be better than Nick Franklin according to some projections. My main concern here is "Would the Dodgers be willing to trade him?" Especially since he put such great offensive numbers in the second half of the season with a .324/.469/.486 line and a 177 wRC+.

Yet, as I mentioned before, Los Angeles does have several good infielders and our friends at True Blue LA think that the Dodgers will need some starting rotation depth, so maybe the Rays could explore the idea of such a trade before Spring Training.

Tier 3 - Marwin Gonzalez, Munenori Kawasaki, Everth Cabrera

This tier is maybe more optimistic on a "feasibility" point of view, but I still think these players could help the Rays in 2015.

Marwin Gonzalez

The good thing about evaluating trade possibilities is that you know you can go have a look at the Astros and you will find someone interesting. In this case, it is Marwin Gonzalez.

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2012	80	219	2	21	12	3	0.059	0.132	0.093	0.264	0.234	0.28	0.327	-13.5	4.7	-0.2
2013	72	222	4	22	14	6	0.041	0.167	0.098	0.25	0.221	0.252	0.319	-11.1	0.3	-0.4
2014	103	310	6	33	23	2	0.055	0.187	0.123	0.33	0.277	0.327	0.4	2.5	-5.3	0.8

The soon-to-be 26-year old can play shortstop and second base and he posted above-average numbers in 2014 and a remarkable .293/.333/.408 and 112 wRC+ in the second half of the season.

Houston seems very open to consider new solutions to improve their team and they will still look for ways to do it until Spring Training according to Jeff Lunhow, their general manager. The Rays could wisely try to get him, especially considering that the Astros have some infield depth with Jonathan Villar and Matt Dominguez for instance.

Munenori Kawasaki

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2012	61	115	0	13	7	2	0.07	0.157	0.01	0.233	0.192	0.257	0.202	-9.6	2.6	-0.3
2013	96	289	1	27	24	7	0.111	0.142	0.079	0.269	0.229	0.326	0.308	-5.4	3	0.8
2014	82	274	0	31	17	1	0.08	0.179	0.038	0.323	0.258	0.327	0.296	-5.9	0.8	0.4

Kawasaki can not hit for power. It's simple, he just can't. Yet he has the ability to get on base, in fact since 2013, among players with at least 500 plate appearances during the last two years (I know, it's not a lot), he ranks seventh among shortstops, just behind Yunel Escobar and in front of Ian Desmond or Jimmy Rollins for instance.

While he does not provide the offensive numbers of the players presented above, he could still have something to help the 2015 Rays. Especially if he manages to improve his defence a little bit, which should not be a major issue if he switches to 2B.

Everth Cabrera

Now this is the tricky part. Everth Cabrera is a free agent, he received a $2.45M compensation last season from the Padres, before being non-tendered by the organization in December.

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	Off	Def	WAR
2009	103	438	2	59	31	25	0.105	0.201	0.106	0.325	0.255	0.342	0.361	-1.8	-4.9	0.7
2010	76	241	1	22	22	10	0.079	0.224	0.071	0.274	0.208	0.279	0.278	-12.7	2.3	-0.3
2011	2	9	0	1	0	2	0.111	0.333	0	0.2	0.125	0.222	0.125	-0.4	-1	-0.1
2012	115	449	2	49	24	44	0.096	0.245	0.078	0.336	0.246	0.324	0.324	0.2	-0.1	1.5
2013	95	435	4	54	31	37	0.094	0.159	0.097	0.337	0.283	0.355	0.381	13	3.2	3.1
2014	90	391	3	36	20	18	0.051	0.22	0.067	0.294	0.232	0.272	0.3	-12.9	-0.6	-0.2

Overall, his career statistics are not extremely good with a .248/.319/.333 line, yet he had two good seasons in 2012 and 2013. Unfortunately, he used performance-enhancing drugs before and maybe during this period, officially to recover from a shoulder injury. Before the 2014 season, Cabrera acknowledged that he had to "come back from zero" and he did "some work everyday to get that momentum again". As you can see on the table above, it did not really came back in 2014.

However, this does not stop some teams to have interest in him, as Baseball Prospectus reports that the Blue Jays may want to look at him to play second base. So if your division opponent wants a player at a position you might want to improve, why not look yourself too?

In the case Toronto gets him first, it could also be an opportunity for Tampa Bay to get Kawasaki at a very reasonable value.

These players are among the ones the Rays should consider targeting, in my opinion, if they do not feel safe with the Franklin/Forsythe duo for 2015. Some would be substantial improvements and exciting to see in a Rays uniform, others could be more of a bet and provide, at worst, infield depth. In any case, there are still opportunities available on the market and it's worth a try.

All statistics used in this article come from Fangraphs and contract information from Baseball Prospectus.