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With the 2015 season over, the draft order is set for next year's draft, and the Rays' 80-win season provides the franchise with the 14th overall pick.
Draft order is based on the reverse order of 2015 regular-season standings, with 2014 records used to break ties.
1. Phillies (63-99, .389)
2. Reds (64-98, .395)
3. Braves (67-95, .414)
4. Rockies (68-94, .420)
5. Brewers (68-94, .420)
6. Athletics (68-94, .420)
7. Marlins (71-91, .438)
8. Padres (74-88, .457)
9. Tigers (74-87, .460)
10. White Sox (76-86, .469)
11. Mariners (76-86, .469)
12. Red Sox (78-84, .481)
13. D-backs (79-83, .488)
14. Rays (80-82, .494)
15. Orioles (81-81, .500)
16. Indians (81-80, .503)
17. Twins (83-79, .512)
18. Nationals (83-79, .512)
19. Giants (84-78, .519)
20. Angels (85-77, .525)
21. Astros (86-76, .531)
22. Yankees (87-75, .537)
23. Rangers (88-74, .543)
24. Mets (90-72, .556)
25. Dodgers (92-70, .568)
26. Blue Jays (93-69, .574)
27. Royals (95-67, .586)
28. Cubs (97-65, .599)
29. Pirates (98-64, .605)
30. Cardinals (100-62, .617)
In the end, the Rays won four or five more games than would have secured an unprotected draft pick, meaning if they'd like to sign a top free agent next season they may have to forfeit the 14th overall selection, but short of a new owner stepping in named Rich Uncle Pennybags, I doubt it will be an issue.
Last year the Rays finished with 77-wins and were awarded the 13th overall selection, which they used on high school OF Garrett Whitley.
Relive the Whitley selection: News | Reaction | Signing
The value difference between the 13th and 14th draft choice is minimal, so we can hope for a similar signing in 2016. Reverting to some research in 2014 by Matthew Murphy, which updated work by Nate Silver, here are your odds on finding a superstar at certain draft slot ranges:
| ODDS OF DRAFTING MAJOR LEAGUE CONTRIBUTOR, BY DRAFT PICK | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Pick | Chance of 10+ WAR Player | Chance of 3+ WAR Player | ||
| 1-5 | 35% | 55% | ||
| 6-10 | 25% | 43% | ||
| 11-15 | 23% | 41% | ||
| 16-20 | 17% | 32% | ||
| 21-30 | 11% | 23% | ||
| 31-40 | 7% | 15% | ||
| 41-50 | 7% | 15% | ||
Using some tongue in cheek in the final week's game previews, I kept wondering why the Rays were so willing to win games when the Red Sox and Orioles were sucking just as much. Giving a higher draft pick to a rival is a disadvantage! (Where's the Extra 2%!?), but as we can see, there's not a huge difference in the odds between the 6th and 15th overall selections.
You can read on in the Hardball Times here, where the same tiers are used to show an avg. WAR of 1.9 for players drafted 6-10, and of 1.5 for players drafted 11-15. Interesting stuff!
Links
- Boxberger finished the season as the AL leader in saves with 41
- You can vote for Logan Forsythe to win the Hank Aaron Award
- Tampa Bay continues to love watching the Rays on TV
Fox: #Padres, #Diamondbacks, #Rays, #Tigers, #Royals and #STLCardinals broadcasts: highest-rated prime-time TV in each market this summer.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) October 5, 2015
- Times: John Romano gives a retrospective on Stadium Talk up to this point.
- Save you a click: Marc Topkin says the Rays would "like most" to trade James Loney (source)
- Mystery link of the day! Not telling you what it is, but you'll love it.