The 2016 PECOTA projections have been released by Baseball Prospectus, and the Rays are poised for the only 90-win season in the division.
True to form, the Rays appear to have a low number of runs scored, but typical of their defense and pitching focus is also the fewest runs allowed, and this by a wide margin.
Subject to change as personnel decisions are finalized, here is the introductory projection for the AL East:
|Tampa Bay Rays||91||71||713||619||.253||.318||.411||.266||57.8|
|Boston Red Sox||88||74||735||671||.272||.334||.426||.268||4.1|
|Toronto Blue Jays||86||76||764||710||.258||.331||.437||.276||20.6|
|New York Yankees||85||77||725||686||.252||.322||.409||.261||12.3|
Impressive in the standings above his a higher slugging percentage than the Yankees, who have all the advantages of their tailored stadium to help them along.
We'll have more on the PECOTA projections throughout the day, but this is a wonderful start.
According to analysis by Russell A. Carlton, the PECOTA projections of 90-win season have a 41.8% correlation.