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PECOTA projects Rays to win AL East

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Defense wins championships.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016 PECOTA projections have been released by Baseball Prospectus, and the Rays are poised for the only 90-win season in the division.

True to form, the Rays appear to have a low number of runs scored, but typical of their defense and pitching focus is also the fewest runs allowed, and this by a wide margin.

Subject to change as personnel decisions are finalized, here is the introductory projection for the AL East:

AL East W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
Tampa Bay Rays 91 71 713 619 .253 .318 .411 .266 57.8
Boston Red Sox 88 74 735 671 .272 .334 .426 .268 4.1
Toronto Blue Jays 86 76 764 710 .258 .331 .437 .276 20.6
New York Yankees 85 77 725 686 .252 .322 .409 .261 12.3
Baltimore Orioles 72 90 697 786 .257 .307 .435 .262 -19

Impressive in the standings above his a higher slugging percentage than the Yankees, who have all the advantages of their tailored stadium to help them along.

We'll have more on the PECOTA projections throughout the day, but this is a wonderful start.

According to analysis by Russell A. Carlton, the PECOTA projections of 90-win season have a 41.8% correlation.