Series preview: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

This week Baltimore comes to St. Pete to take on the Rays, whose offense has woken up and will look to continue to perform against less-than-great pitchers. Baltimore is coming off a series loss 1-2 to the Kansas City Royals.

Matchups:

Monday: Kevin Gausman vs Chris Archer

Tuesday: Ubaldo Jimenez vs Jake Odorizzi

Wednesday: Chris Tillman vs Matt Moore

The Rays should have the advantage on the mound on the mound in the first two matchups if Chris Archer brings his fastball command (that has eluded him so far this season). The Wednesday matchup could also favor the Rays if Matt Moore continues his hot start to the season.

Baltimore Starting Pitching

Kevin Gausman is expected to be activated off the disabled list (shoulder) to make his first start of the season for the Orioles. Gausman was the fourth overall pick of the 2012 MLB draft out of LSU. He has spent parts of the last three seasons in the majors with 42 starts and 23 appearances in relief.

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off an effective five-inning start against the Blue Jays where he allowed two runs on five hits while striking out six and walking four.

Chris Tillman is the leader of a weak Orioles starting rotation and is coming off a season high six-inning outing against the Blue Jays where he allowed two runs while striking out four and walking three.

Orioles Starting Pitching Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Hitters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Kevin Gausman	122.1	19.5%	5.1%	13.5%	0.271	0.313	0.450	0.329	4.93	4.11
Ubaldo Jimenez	237.2	21.4%	10.3%	9.6%	0.263	0.340	0.378	0.320	3.60	3.54
Chris Tillman	281.0	18.9%	7.9%	13.9%	0.238	0.303	0.429	0.320	4.68	4.62

Gausman and Tillman have a history of allowing hard contact against right-handed hitters, allowing ISO's of .179 and .191 respectively.

Jimenez has been tough on right-handed hitters, but if the hitters are patient they should have opportunities. He can be wild, with a career 4.08 BB/9.

Orioles Starting Pitching Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Hitters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Kevin Gausman	151.0	22.1%	8.5%	8.9%	0.241	0.308	0.388	0.306	3.64	3.54
Ubaldo Jimenez	271.1	23.8%	10.9%	12.0%	0.230	0.325	0.392	0.319	4.31	4.31
Chris Tillman	324.0	17.8%	8.2%	8.2%	0.250	0.317	0.391	0.312	3.36	3.94

Gausman and Tillman have limited the damage against opposite handed hitters, so this series may be a good opportunity to see Steve Pearce and Brandon Guyer get some additional playing time.

Jimenez has struggled against left-handed hitters and I would expect the full allotment of Rays lefties to be in the lineup against him.

Baltimore Bullpen

The bullpen is one of the best in the league. It might not get the hype that surrounds the Yankee's three-headed monster, but it has a really effective back end in Darren O'Day, Zach Britton, and Mychal Givens.

The bullpen is fresh coming off the series in Kansas City that saw the back end see limited use. In the three games Givens pitched 1.1 innings on Saturday and Britton faced one batter yesterday. T.J. McFarland pitched five innings on Friday night when Yovani Gallardo was pulled after two innings.

The Orioles will have to make a move in order to activate Gausman for tonight's start. McFarland and Givens are the only pitchers in the bullpen with options remaining, so I'd imagine McFarland is sent down.

Orioles Relievers Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Hitters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Darren O'Day	132.0	30.4%	5.0%	5.7%	0.171	0.237	0.243	0.221	1.36	2.39
Zach Britton	130.1	20.9%	8.2%	17.7%	0.233	0.301	0.352	0.290	2.97	3.57
Mychal Givens	26.2	41.6%	5.9%	11.1%	0.160	0.220	0.301	0.226	1.35	1.74
Brian Matusz	66.1	19.2%	11.7%	8.0%	0.275	0.368	0.425	0.343	4.88	4.46
Brad Brach	94.0	28.9%	10.4%	10.4%	0.224	0.309	0.367	0.301	3.26	3.41
T.J. McFarland	100.2	11.0%	9.5%	7.8%	0.301	0.371	0.413	0.339	4.29	4.33
Vance Worley	135.0	15.6%	3.6%	8.7%	0.294	0.330	0.433	0.333	4.87	3.45
Dylan Bundy	3.0	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	0.333	0.429	0.333	0.351	3.00	4.43

O'Day and Givens have been lights out against righties. Britton has been good, but not great against right-handed hitters. Having a good lefty bat could be useful in this series. As it stands, the only left-handed bat the Rays will typically have on the bench is Hank Conger, if he doesn't see the start.

If the Rays can get into the middle bullpen there are some opportunities for runs, as the quality of arms falls off and many of the pitchers have control issues.

Orioles Relievers Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Hitters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Darren O'Day	71.1	24.2%	8.6%	13.6%	0.227	0.303	0.410	0.306	2.40	4.29
Zach Britton	59.0	26.3%	5.8%	10.0%	0.195	0.246	0.224	0.216	1.22	2.05
Mychal Givens	12.1	21.4%	7.1%	0.0%	0.294	0.357	0.420	0.339	3.65	2.40
Brian Matusz	85.2	29.9%	5.4%	8.1%	0.189	0.246	0.319	0.250	2.10	2.79
Brad Brach	90.0	20.0%	12.3%	6.5%	0.206	0.306	0.321	0.279	2.40	3.86
T.J. McFarland	84.1	19.8%	5.1%	16.7%	0.262	0.309	0.379	0.304	3.31	3.11
Vance Worley	107.2	15.8%	8.4%	12.3%	0.288	0.355	0.437	0.345	3.26	4.72
Dylan Bundy	4.0	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%	0.286	0.375	0.429	0.354	2.25	4.59

Against O'Day left handed hitters have found much more success than right handed hitters. Against Britton left handed bats haven't fared well and will likely see high leverage action against Corey Dickerson. Givens has given up runs in his limited time against left handed hitters, but has a lower FIP due to not allowing a homerun.

Overall the lesser arms in the Oriole's bullpen do a good job against left handed bats and we'll likely see some of our right handed bench bats get some action in this series in big spots if the game is tight.

Baltimore Offense

The Oriole's offense has helped carry them to an 11-6 start. The Orioles lead the league in wRC+ with a .275/.339/.475, .351 wOBA, 128 wRC+ line. That line is propped up by basically only three starters being significantly above average. Manny Machado has been on a tear through the early season as he's posted a .380/.436/.746 .496 wOBA 236 wRC+ line. Mark Trumbo (.373/.408/.642, .450 wOBA, 202 wRC+) and Chris Davis (.230/.382/.525, .393 wOBA, 159 wRC+) have been the other threats in the lineup.

Joey Rickard, JJ Hardy, and Jonathan Schoop have helped out offensively being just above average. Matt Wieters (.233/.298/.349, .288 wOBA, 82 wRC+) and Adam Jones (.205/.286/.318, .272 wOBA, 70 wRC+) have struggled at the start of the season, but will need to produce more if the Orioles are going to build off their successful start.

The target of many Rays fans as a replacement to James Loney, Pedro Alvarez, has struggled in posting a .108/.267/.135, .199 wOBA, 16 wRC+).

Orioles Offense Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Pitchers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Manny Machado	1333	55	21	7.0%	17.0%	0.295	0.346	0.492	0.363	130
Mark Trumbo	1191	43	6	7.2%	26.2%	0.239	0.294	0.407	0.305	93
Chris Davis	1312	100	6	14.2%	31.6%	0.262	0.374	0.593	0.406	159
Adam Jones	1460	68	20	2.6%	18.1%	0.276	0.303	0.473	0.336	111
Matt Wieters	737	20	0	7.7%	17.9%	0.244	0.299	0.391	0.300	85
Pedro Alvarez	1292	73	12	9.8%	26.1%	0.242	0.319	0.478	0.340	119
JJ Hardy	1241	31	2	5.3%	16.4%	0.260	0.300	0.385	0.301	87
Jonathan Schoop	621	30	3	1.9%	22.7%	0.243	0.269	0.450	0.312	95
Joey Rickard	61	1	1	3.3%	26.2%	0.281	0.295	0.368	0.286	81
Caleb Joseph	437	11	0	7.8%	21.7%	0.221	0.288	0.357	0.286	77
Nolan Reimold	243	11	0	9.1%	28.0%	0.207	0.284	0.392	0.296	83
Ryan Flaherty	756	22	4	8.3%	23.4%	0.220	0.295	0.366	0.291	80
Hyun Soo Kim	12	0	0	16.7%	16.7%	0.500	0.583	0.500	0.483	227

The Orioles have four bats you'll want to avoid beating you in Machado, Davis, Jones, and Alvarez. Their lineup is deep and has a lot of power, but there are a lot of strikeouts to be had. Limit the walks and only allowing solo homeruns will be the key for the pitchers to give the offense the chance to score enough runs.

Orioles Offense Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Pitchers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Manny Machado	522	12	7	6.1%	15.3%	0.268	0.318	0.418	0.320	100
Mark Trumbo	465	32	2	7.3%	23.2%	0.275	0.329	0.566	0.380	145
Chris Davis	632	32	2	7.1%	29.9%	0.230	0.296	0.447	0.324	102
Adam Jones	541	22	4	6.5%	21.8%	0.282	0.335	0.481	0.351	121
Matt Wieters	283	16	2	6.0%	25.4%	0.272	0.311	0.510	0.350	120
Pedro Alvarez	303	8	1	7.6%	33.7%	0.194	0.254	0.305	0.251	58
JJ Hardy	469	13	0	5.3%	14.7%	0.236	0.276	0.376	0.285	76
Jonathan Schoop	258	5	1	5.4%	28.3%	0.221	0.268	0.308	0.258	59
Joey Rickard	16	0	0	6.3%	6.3%	0.400	0.438	0.600	0.445	198
Caleb Joseph	219	9	0	5.0%	23.7%	0.228	0.273	0.401	0.293	82
Nolan Reimold	193	5	1	9.3%	30.1%	0.262	0.326	0.413	0.317	98
Ryan Flaherty	139	4	0	3.6%	28.1%	0.189	0.241	0.354	0.262	60
Hyun Soo Kim	No MLB Plate Appearances

Trumbo, Jones, and Wieters are the landmines the southpaws will need to keep from doing too much damage. You would probably expect better results for Machado against left-handed pitchers and that league average number could look much different in the near future.

As a whole the Orioles offense doesn't walk a lot outside of Davis and Alvarez. Against lefties that is magnified and the Rays pitchers will need to avoid unnecessary base runners.

An Opportunity to Gain Ground in the Division

The Rays have plenty of time to make up ground, but they can't afford to fall too far behind. Winning a series against a divisional opponent would be a good outcome.

The Rays bats have woken up after a sluggish start that saw them only score 24 runs in the first ten games. In the last eight the Rays offense has put up 41 runs including outbursts of seven, eight, and twelve runs.

The Rays have the advantage on the mound, but will need help from the offense as the Orioles will likely score some runs this series.