Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays head to Canada, coming off a rough series against the Athletics, to face the Toronto Blue Jays, who were literally roughed up by the Texas Rangers just yesterday.

The Blue Jays have had an unexpected start to the season as they have been carried by (believe it or not) their starting rotation, with an offense that's been similarly effective as the Rays.

Many Blue Jays players are likely facing suspensions, but are unlikely to serve them during this series including Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kevin Pillar, and Jesse Chavez.

Matchups:

Monday: Drew Smyly vs J.A. Happ

Tuesday: Chris Archer vs Marcus Stroman

Wednesday: Jake Odorizzi vs R.A. Dickey

Can the starting rotation continue to carry the Blue Jays?

After not resigning David Price this offseason the Blue Jays went the route of signing a middle of the rotation arms of Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ. This series the Rays will face J.A. Happ, owner of a 2.05 ERA, their ace, Marcus Stroman, and inconsistent results of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

Starting Pitchers Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
J.A. Happ	361.1	18.8%	7.5%	9.5%	0.250	0.311	0.407	0.315	3.94	4.03
Marcus Stroman	96.2	20.1%	3.9%	7.5%	0.254	0.289	0.329	0.275	3.54	2.73
R.A. Dickey	368.0	18.8%	6.5%	11.7%	0.241	0.303	0.416	0.315	4.06	4.25

Stroman has been really tough against right handed batters. Happ and Dickey have been roughly league average.

Happ has been much improved over the last year and affected by Ray Searage magic. The biggest improvement has been in avoiding homers. Happ is a lefty, so the Rays offense will have its preferred matchup.

Starting Pitchers Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
J.A. Happ	109.2	22.1%	8.3%	9.8%	0.270	0.333	0.421	0.331	3.53	3.58
Marcus Stroman	117.0	19.4%	7.2%	8.4%	0.221	0.281	0.333	0.274	3.23	3.36
R.A. Dickey	334.2	15.8%	8.7%	10.4%	0.237	0.309	0.403	0.313	3.87	4.63

Stroman is equally tough against lefties where he allows a lower average, but many more extra base hits.

Happ has allowed fewer runs against lefties with a higher wOBA, but seems to be mostly be an elevated .334 BABIP against lefties.

Who's going to help Osuna in the bullpen?

Going into the season the Blue Jays bullpen looked like a real strength after acquiring Drew Storen from the Nationals. The starting pitching has put them in position to win games, but the Blue Jays lead the league with 13 losses.

Brett Cecil was placed on the disabled list this past weekend and Storen has really struggled. Storen is sporting a 8.25 ERA. This leaves the Blue Jays with thin backend bullpen depth.

Relievers Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Roberto Osuna	40.1	29.7%	6.5%	6.1%	0.181	0.240	0.305	0.238	2.23	2.63
Drew Storen	103.0	25.7%	5.3%	6.1%	0.214	0.271	0.297	0.255	3.15	2.64
Jesse Chavez	172.2	24.2%	7.1%	9.2%	0.235	0.296	0.358	0.288	3.75	3.31
Gavin Floyd	56.1	19.7%	3.9%	10.5%	0.245	0.297	0.393	0.301	3.04	3.60
Joe Biagini	7.1	13.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.222	0.300	0.259	0.258	1.23	3.21
Chad Girodo	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.286	0.375	0.714	0.458	4.50	11.07
Dustin Antolin	Has not pitched in MLB

The Blue Jays are down to four options that have much MLB experience, but in their favor, Jesse Chavez and Gavin Floyd have been successful in their transitions to the bullpen.

The rotation has averaged just over 6.5 innings a game, and that has limited the exposure to the weak arms in the pen.

Relievers Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Roberto Osuna	45.1	26.3%	6.2%	9.8%	0.196	0.246	0.365	0.257	2.58	3.21
Drew Storen	82.0	20.9%	7.4%	11.4%	0.272	0.336	0.422	0.327	3.73	3.93
Jesse Chavez	201.0	19.1%	8.1%	11.6%	0.267	0.334	0.408	0.325	3.85	4.18
Gavin Floyd	53.2	22.4%	10.5%	14.0%	0.241	0.326	0.397	0.320	3.19	4.05
Joe Biagini	4.0	25.0%	15.0%	0.0%	0.235	0.350	0.313	0.299	0.00	2.82
Chad Girodo	4.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.071	0.071	0.071	0.063	0.00	1.07
Dustin Antolin	Has not pitched in MLB

Left handed batters have been much more successful against their four relievers with major league experience. Osuna is still a really tough assignment for lefties, but they have hit for more damage.

Chad Girodo is the only lefty in the bullpen.

Will the TOR bats that led the league in runs last season wake up?

Last year this lineup put 891 runs on the board (5.50 runs per game) and this year they have struggled in scoring only 161 through their first 39 games (4.13 runs per game). The Blue Jays have hit .238/.319/.398, .315 wOBA, 97 wRC+.

Josh Donaldson (.258/.364/.510, .376 wOBA, 140 wRC+) has been aided by Michael Saunders (.328/.393/.541, .402 wOBA, 159 wRC+) and Justin Smoak (.307/.435/.480, .400 wOBA, 158 wRC+) this season. Jose Bautista has been good, but not great (.217/.360/.442, .352 wOBA, 123 wRC+).

Troy Tulowtizki (.200/.290/.407, .302, 88 wRC+) has continued to struggle as the Blue Jays haven't gotten what they were expecting since they acquired him from the Rockies last season. He has hit eight homers.

Russell Martin has been one of the worst position players this season (.168/.239/.178, .198 wOBA, 14 wRC+).

This offense has the pieces to go off at any time and let's hope the brawl in Texas didn't ignite their offense.

Batters Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Pitchers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Michael Saunders	633	18	16	10.7%	24.2%	0.265	0.342	0.440	0.340	119
Josh Donaldson	1683	66	18	10.4%	19.4%	0.273	0.353	0.466	0.357	129
Jose Bautista	1617	86	15	15.1%	16.0%	0.258	0.375	0.511	0.382	144
Edwin Encarnacion	1557	98	10	11.6%	14.6%	0.270	0.358	0.546	0.386	146
Troy Tulowitzki	1196	54	2	9.4%	19.7%	0.287	0.357	0.494	0.380	122
Russell Martin	1237	42	13	9.9%	21.1%	0.245	0.335	0.416	0.331	111
Justin Smoak	870	40	0	12.2%	25.2%	0.238	0.336	0.450	0.344	120
Kevin Pillar	726	14	21	3.7%	16.1%	0.264	0.299	0.392	0.301	87
Ryan Goins	646	8	3	6.7%	19.5%	0.233	0.284	0.333	0.273	68
Ezequiel Carrera	270	2	10	5.6%	21.9%	0.259	0.311	0.342	0.288	80
Darwin Barney	639	8	6	5.8%	11.7%	0.209	0.263	0.297	0.249	52
Josh Thole	285	1	0	9.1%	17.9%	0.200	0.277	0.247	0.243	48
Andy Burns	2	0	0	0.0%	100.0%	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-100

For all their offensive struggles this year you still have to avoid the middle of the lineup in Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion as they can put a crooked number on the board quickly. Saunders has been productive when healthy and he's stayed healthy to this point.

If Tulowitzki and Martin are able to turn it around this offense could be the juggernaut we saw last season.

Batters Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Pitchers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Michael Saunders	269	7	1	11.2%	26.4%	0.247	0.330	0.396	0.322	106
Josh Donaldson	567	37	4	12.9%	14.5%	0.310	0.402	0.636	0.438	186
Jose Bautista	422	23	7	16.6%	14.0%	0.274	0.396	0.527	0.397	155
Edwin Encarnacion	398	18	2	13.8%	13.3%	0.265	0.369	0.496	0.374	138
Troy Tulowitzki	380	17	1	12.9%	15.8%	0.327	0.421	0.548	0.413	152
Russell Martin	349	7	4	16.0%	20.1%	0.241	0.371	0.357	0.329	109
Justin Smoak	347	8	1	7.8%	23.1%	0.214	0.277	0.333	0.273	72
Kevin Pillar	291	5	9	4.5%	15.8%	0.283	0.321	0.401	0.315	97
Ryan Goins	204	2	0	3.9%	24.5%	0.199	0.235	0.285	0.230	37
Ezequiel Carrera	63	2	1	4.8%	23.8%	0.339	0.381	0.475	0.375	141
Darwin Barney	266	5	1	7.1%	13.5%	0.266	0.327	0.398	0.318	101
Josh Thole	90	1	0	7.8%	20.0%	0.225	0.287	0.288	0.262	60
Andy Burns	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.361	130

The biggest surprise has been the lack of production against left handed pitchers this season. The Blue Jays have only hit .252/.326/.398, .318 wOBA, 100 wRC+ after hitting .278/.354/.463, .354 wOBA, 124 wRC+ last year.

Smyly will have to avoid the middle of the lineup and his nemesis Saunders who is three for six with two homers this season against the southpaw.

TB needs to pounce on the Blue Jays while they're struggling

The Rays need to take advantage of the Blue Jays while they aren't hitting the ball like they are capable of. The Rays throw who should be their three best pitchers against this series and get to face the only lefty in the Blue Jays rotation and Dickey. Winning games in the division is huge if they want to stay within reach of first place.

It would be nice if the suspensions that are coming would see their big bats miss this series, but I would expect them to appeal their suspensions. The Rays could miss one of them if one chooses to accept their penalty thereby staggering the suspensions and not be hit all at once.

Yesterday was a frustrating day, but the Rays get to get back on the field and have the opportunity to take a series from a divisional foe and put the loss behind them.