The Rays head back to the state of Florida after a costly visit to Detroit that saw them lose two games, plus their platinum glove center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays face off against Miami for a four game series.  After getting off to a modestly strong start, the Marlins have scuffled a bit of late, and sit just one game over .500. Thus far this season they have fared much better on the road (13-9) than at home (9 - 12).

Matchups:

Monday: Matt Moore vs Wei-Yin Chen

Tuesday: Jake Odorizzi vs Tom Koehler

Wednesday: Justin Nicolino vs Matt Andriese

Thursday: Jose Fernandez vs Drew Smyly

Rays face two lefties, but don’t avoid Jose Fernandez.

The series kicks off with Miami sending Wei-Yin Chen, their major 2016 free agent acquisition, to the mound. The left handed pitcher is to the Rays, who faced him often during his four years in Baltimore. Chen has made 19 starts against the Rays and is 5-6 with a 3.55 ERA,   allowing a .269/.322/.464 line with 18 homers. Chen performance this year is consistent with his past, with a slight bump in strikeouts at 7.71 per nine (helps to face the opposing pitcher a few times a game)  and walking just 1.65 per 9. He has continued to allowed a higher than average homer/fly ball rate of 12.8%.

Tom Koehler has struggled with command as he’s allowed walks to 13.1% of batters while only striking out 16.2%. Koehler has limited homers to 6.5% of fly balls for the lowest rate of his career to keep his 4.71 ERA from being much worse.

Justin Nicolino is the second left hander the Rays will face. He doesn’t strike guys out as he has a career 6.8% K-rate. This year he has struggled to reach even that standard as in 29.1 innings he has struck out six (4.9%) while walking eleven (8.9%). His 5.12 FIP believes he has been lucky to put up a 4.30 ERA.

In the series finale the Rays face off against the undisputed ace of the Marlins, Jose Fernandez. Fernandez has uncharacteristically struggled with command, walking 11.1% of batters since his return from Tommy John surgery. Fernandez has seen an uptick in strikeouts to an eye-popping 35.9%. The elevated walk rate has limited Fernandez’s innings;  he’s averaging just shy of 6 innings per outing. The Rays might have caught a break by facing him at Tropicana Field as he's been much more human on the road throughout his career with a 3.65 ERA and .282 wOBA versus a 1.64 ERA and .228 wOBA at home.

Marlins Starting Pitchers Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Wei-Yin Chen	427.2	18.8%	5.6%	11.6%	0.270	0.315	0.463	0.336	3.94	4.18
Tom Koehler	281.0	16.6%	8.8%	9.0%	0.257	0.334	0.412	0.327	4.39	4.20
Justin Nicolino	81.1	5.7%	7.5%	8.9%	0.258	0.323	0.449	0.330	4.32	5.24
Jose Fernandez	178.1	35.0%	5.4%	6.5%	0.168	0.221	0.257	0.212	2.52	1.88

The left handed pitchers Chen and Nicolino struggle against right handed batters and should be a good matchup for the Rays offense.

Koehler has slight reverse splits, so it would be a good opportunity to get the guys who are performing the best regardless of handedness.

Fernandez allows very little to right handed batters, so the Rays need to get as many left handed batters in the lineup as possible.

Marlins Starting Pitchers Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
Wei-Yin Chen	135.1	18.0%	4.4%	8.9%	0.238	0.280	0.360	0.281	2.79	3.35
Tom Koehler	282.2	17.9%	10.1%	9.4%	0.248	0.330	0.386	0.318	3.85	4.25
Justin Nicolino	22.0	11.0%	6.6%	5.6%	0.238	0.300	0.329	0.279	3.27	3.75
Jose Fernandez	164.1	25.7%	10.5%	9.6%	0.231	0.315	0.332	0.290	2.46	3.16

All four pitchers are pretty solid against left handed batters with the two lefties leading the way. Koehler is slightly worse against right handers.

Fernandez really needs to be attacked by left handed bats. Unfortunately the Rays lost one of one of those when Kiermaier went down,  so the work will need to be done by Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, and Hank Conger.

Marlins bullpen is very similar to the Rays.

The Marlin’s bullpen has had three reliable options in A.J. Ramos, Kyle Barraclough, and David Phelps. Ramos has picked up 13 saves with a 2.00 ERA, but has had issues with a 16.0% walk rate. Barraclough has had a similar problem, 15.9% bb-rate, but has posted a 2.40 ERA. David Phelps has pitched a lot and been very good (1.44 ERA, 1.87 FIP) over 25 innings. The less we see of those three pitchers in the series the better.

Bryan Morris has played the role of Steve Geltz in the Marlins bullpen as he’s allowed a 30.8% home run per fly ball rate leading to a 6.55 FIP, but has managed to only allow a 3.24 ERA over 16.2 innings.

Marlins Relievers Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
A.J. Ramos	130.2	29.2%	11.0%	3.6%	0.172	0.270	0.250	0.239	2.48	2.67
Kyle Barraclough	24.0	38.7%	12.9%	0.0%	0.148	0.258	0.241	0.225	1.50	1.61
David Phelps	162.0	18.1%	7.5%	7.5%	0.272	0.335	0.395	0.322	3.94	3.65
Edwin Jackson	216.0	18.1%	7.2%	12.4%	0.259	0.320	0.435	0.329	5.54	4.09
Dustin McGowan	78.1	19.7%	9.7%	11.2%	0.247	0.326	0.404	0.324	4.37	4.61
Bryan Morris	125.2	18.1%	8.8%	13.7%	0.237	0.314	0.349	0.295	2.65	3.83
Jose Urena	43.0	14.1%	7.3%	5.1%	0.307	0.370	0.438	0.351	5.23	3.59

Ramos and Barraclough have been really tough on right handed batters, but outside of them there’s nobody that really shuts down right handed batters.

Marlins Relievers Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Batters:

Player	IP	K%	BB%	HR%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ERA	FIP
A.J. Ramos	101.2	26.6%	15.2%	7.1%	0.193	0.327	0.300	0.286	2.57	3.69
Kyle Barraclough	15.1	27.0%	23.0%	15.4%	0.214	0.405	0.357	0.348	4.11	5.72
David Phelps	174.2	20.2%	9.4%	10.2%	0.242	0.327	0.394	0.319	4.74	4.21
Edwin Jackson	161.1	18.0%	10.8%	6.9%	0.296	0.377	0.452	0.362	4.63	3.98
Dustin McGowan	63.2	16.5%	12.4%	14.8%	0.246	0.347	0.460	0.353	4.24	5.89
Bryan Morris	83.1	14.1%	11.2%	15.3%	0.263	0.361	0.416	0.335	3.13	5.27
Jose Urena	35.0	6.3%	10.8%	9.1%	0.266	0.354	0.441	0.336	5.40	5.66

The Marlins bullpen doesn’t have a single left handed pitcher. Left handed batters have fared well against this group of pitchers with Ramos being the best option.

Is Giancarlo Stanton the Marlins third best outfielder?

The Marlins outfield is their strength as Giancarlo Stanton (.211/.324/.469 111 wRC+) has been their third best outfielder behind Christian Yelich (.320/.420/.524 156 wRC+) and Marcell Ozuna (.311/.355/.553 143 wRC+).

Stanton is currently in a really deep slump.  Over the last week he’s 1 for 22 with 17 strikeouts and 3 walks. Keeping Stanton in check will be a key for the pitching staff. The Marlins have struggled offensively as they’ve only scored nine runs over their past five games (1-4 record).

The PED suspension of Dee Gordon has opened up consistent playing time for former Rays farmhand Derek Dietrich. He’s taken advantage of his opportunity in posting a .282/.387/.466, .368 wOBA, 130 wRC+ line.

Marlins Batters Last 3+ Years vs Right Handed Pitchers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Christian Yelich	1193	22	43	11.1%	19.4%	0.300	0.380	0.438	0.360	129
Giancarlo Stanton	1279	72	16	13.2%	30.3%	0.253	0.356	0.502	0.368	134
Marcell Ozuna	1260	32	9	6.1%	23.6%	0.266	0.309	0.413	0.316	99
Justin Bour	576	33	0	8.9%	21.0%	0.271	0.335	0.505	0.357	126
Derek Dietrich	681	21	2	8.2%	20.1%	0.246	0.340	0.441	0.341	115
Martin Prado	1504	23	4	4.9%	12.2%	0.280	0.319	0.385	0.310	92
J.T. Realmuto	519	9	10	3.5%	14.3%	0.266	0.292	0.394	0.295	83
Adeiny Hechavarria	1404	8	18	4.1%	15.2%	0.251	0.282	0.333	0.267	65
Ichiro Suzuki	1101	4	42	6.1%	13.4%	0.249	0.295	0.301	0.265	63
Chris Johnson	1081	18	5	4.3%	25.7%	0.255	0.288	0.361	0.285	80
Cole Gillespie	170	3	4	6.5%	20.0%	0.239	0.293	0.368	0.291	83
Miguel Rojas	294	2	0	6.8%	15.0%	0.259	0.313	0.320	0.279	75
Jeff Mathis	447	4	0	7.6%	30.4%	0.165	0.229	0.242	0.210	26

Against right handed pitchers the offense is led by its outfielders, Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton. They are joined by Justin Bour and Dietrich as the real threats.

There isn’t a lot of depth against right handed pitchers, but the top five can do damage. Rays pitchers need to take advantage of the weak bottom of the lineup.

Marlins Batters Last 3+ Years vs Left Handed Pitchers:

Player	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVE	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Christian Yelich	439	3	7	9.1%	23.0%	0.277	0.345	0.365	0.318	100
Giancarlo Stanton	355	27	2	16.1%	21.7%	0.303	0.414	0.646	0.442	186
Marcell Ozuna	309	12	1	5.8%	23.3%	0.303	0.343	0.502	0.365	132
Justin Bour	91	0	0	6.6%	29.7%	0.214	0.275	0.274	0.248	52
Derek Dietrich	148	5	0	2.0%	31.8%	0.219	0.272	0.365	0.283	75
Martin Prado	449	12	3	10.2%	6.9%	0.325	0.392	0.494	0.382	142
J.T. Realmuto	121	3	0	4.1%	19.8%	0.278	0.314	0.461	0.330	108
Adeiny Hechavarria	392	3	7	7.1%	16.8%	0.285	0.335	0.365	0.310	95
Ichiro Suzuki	340	5	6	5.3%	10.9%	0.308	0.343	0.410	0.329	107
Chris Johnson	386	8	3	5.4%	22.5%	0.362	0.397	0.485	0.384	147
Cole Gillespie	145	0	2	9.0%	16.6%	0.269	0.331	0.323	0.291	84
Miguel Rojas	72	0	0	6.9%	11.1%	0.136	0.197	0.197	0.182	9
Jeff Mathis	141	5	0	7.1%	27.7%	0.234	0.293	0.391	0.294	84

Against left handed pitchers the outfielders are joined by lefty mashers Martin Prado and Chris Johnson. Their lineup is much more potent against left handed pitching.

J.T. Realmuto brings a good bat for a catcher that is stronger against left handed pitching.

Rays starting pitching needs to get on track.

The key to this series will likely fall on the Rays starting pitchers keeping the Marlins offense at bay. Playing by National League rules means at least one of the nine outs out to come easily!  The Rays bats need to continue doing what they do especially to the two left handed pitchers.

This series will feature two afternoon games, Tuesday at 12:10 PM and Thursday at 1:10 PM. Tuesday afternoon’s game will be an off day for Dewayne Staats and Brian Anderson as the game will be shown on Fox Sports Florida with the Marlins crew.