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Game 112 Preview: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays try to even the series in Toronto after opening with a loss

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Starting Pitchers:

2016 W L ERA FIP xFIP K% IFFB% BB% BABIP GS IP fWAR
Drew Smyly 3 11 5.14 4.30 4.15 24.3 14.8 6.1 .311 21 124.1 1.6
Marco Estrada 7 4 2.92 3.81 4.41 23.5 18.8 8.6 .208 19 123.1 2.6

Coming off one of his better outings of the season, starting LHP Drew Smyly will hope to continue that success against Toronto's right handed sluggers. I added a column for IFFB% to show how dominating Smyly is in that regard. Popups are essentially strikeouts in that they are free outs, so Smyly gets a free out from more than 38% of his batters faced. Let's hope that continues tonight.

Marco Estrada Scouting Report:

If you're thinking Smyly's IFFB% doesn't seem very dominating when compared to Estrada, it's because the latter leads the majors in the category. Estrada is a flyball pitcher that has done well in the ERA column since moving to Toronto, but his FIP and xFIP do not think his performance has been nearly as good. If you ask me, tonight feels like a great time to start the regression.

His Aresenal:

Pitch Avg Velo vs RHB vs LHB
Fastball 89 mph 48.8% 47%
Change up 78 28.4 31.3
Curve 77 11.7 8.0
Cutter 86.5 11.1 13.8

His Splits:

2016 TBF wOBA AVG OBP SLG HR K% BB%
vs RHB 236 .238 .158 .233 .308 6 23.3 8.5
vs LHB 254 .276 .199 .272 .359 8 23.6 8.7
Home 251 .257 .172 .251 .335 7 24.7 8.8
Away 239 .258 .187 .255 .335 7 22.2 8.4

Today's Lineups:

Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays
Logan Forsythe - 2B Devon Travis - 2B
Kevin Kiermaier - CF Jose Bautista - RF
Evan Longoria - 3B Josh Donaldson - 3B
Brad Miller - 1B Edwin Encarnacion - DH
Mikie Mahtook - LF Russell Martin - C
Corey Dickerson - DH Troy Tulowitzki - SS
Steven Souza Jr - RF Michael Saunders - LF
Tim Beckham - SS Justin Smoak - 1B
Luke Maile - C Melvin Upton Jr - CF
Drew Smyly - LHP Marco Estrada - RHP