Tampa Bay Rays news and links: Why did the Rays stop winning?

We fan-shotted this yesterday, but it’s worth top billing in the Tank as well. Jeff Sullivan devoted an article to the Rays of the past five years. On the one hand, it looks like the Rays—once contenders in the stacked AL East—have simply been unable to keep pace as the rest of the league got wise to their organizational smarts; the window of opportunity that opened in 2008 and stretched through 2012 seems to have closed.

But if you look at it through the lens of base runs, it’s not clear that the Rays were no longer competitive. They scored plenty of runs and prevented plenty of runs—they just were best at the moments that mattered least and worst at the moments that mattered most.

What’s up with that? Everybody has their theories, which is fine. Just be aware that those theories are guesses, generally not backed up upon a close examination of the data (heavy reliance on three true outcomes is not enough of an answer—that creates high variance, with little evidence to suggest it pushes hard in one direction or the other). I’m certainly not saying that the Rays haven’t done something wrong, but it’s tough to say what.

Sorta Rays News

• Chipper Jones thinks Fred McGriff should be in the Hall of Fame.
• Eno Sarris looked at the players who fell the furthest on prospect lists while they were in the minors—a couple Rays, headlined by Jake McGee, on that list.

Around Baseball

• Vladimir Guerrero will enter The Hall as the first player to wear an Angels cap.
• The Brewers are going for it, with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield.
• David Laurila was at the MLB Executive Panel Q&A (a roundtable discussion).
• The THT Baseball Annual is out.

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