With the off season dragging on and the market unclear, I conducted a survey of some of our sister sites at SB Nation to see how other clubs might value the Tampa Bay Rays players that have been rumored to be available.
The best responses are below.
Athletics (Alex Hall): I’d take a flyer on Odorizzi as a bounce-back candidate, but with only two years of control at arbitration prices I wouldn’t give much. An offer would begin by picking one of the following: Daniel Gossett, Ryan Dull, Renato Nunez, Sheldon Neuse, Greg Deichmann. Maybe toss in a lotto ticket too.
Brewers (Kyle Lesniewski): The Brewers should be interested in Odorizzi, but he’s probably the difference-maker that they really need for their rotation (can you just give us Archer, plz?!). They are shopping Santana but a 1-for-1 there feels like an overpay, imo. I’d give up a couple of mid-tier prospects for Odorizzi, though.
Cardinals (Craig Edwards): The Cardinals would only take Odorizzi for a prospect or two outside the Cardinals top-15.
Cubs (Al Yellon): Jake Odorizzi could definitely help the Cubs rotation, where he’d be a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. The asking price might be too high though. Would consider trading Kyle Schwarber for him, but I think the Rays would have to throw in a pitching prospect.
Mariners (Lookout Landing Staff): We like him but aren’t sure if the Mariners have the pieces to get him. We bandied about the idea of Ben Gamel plus some of the M’s blue-chip prospects (White, Lewis, Carlson). Or maybe Gamel, Art Warren (a little birdie told us TB has interest there), and one of White/Lewis/Carlson? For the number of teams that need pitching, though, we recognize the Mariners would be pretty easily outbid.
Marlins (Thomas Bennett): I would think Jake Odorizzi would fetch a middling prospect and a perhaps a project/throw-in type player coming off of the year he did. On the plus side he’ll only be 28 and has a few solid 2 plus fWAR years under his belt already, but the Rays in hindsight would’ve been better served trying to move him earlier for max value.
Nationals (Matt Weyrich): Jake Odorizzi would be a prime target for Washington if the front office decides to look outside the organization for a fifth starter. If the Rays don’t demand either of the Nationals’ top two prospects in Victor Robles and Juan Soto, this trade makes a lot of sense for both sides.
Phillies (Liz Roscher): Jake Odorizzi would have been a great fit for the Phillies’ rotation maybe a year ago, but now they have a lot of guys who are sort of like him: Decent ceiling, good potential, but consistency issues. The Phillies just don’t have room for another project, but if they did, I could see them giving up someone like Franklyn Kilome, who has been on the edges of overall prospect lists, and outfielder Roman Quinn.
Rockies (Eric Garcia McKinley): The Rockies have no shortage of young controllable pitching, but you can never have too much young controllable pitching. Odorizzi would fall in the “nice to have” camp, where there’s high value but hesitation to give up too much.
Twins (Tyler Gorsegner): On a scale of 1-10 I’d have to put trade interest at about a 9. The Twins desperately need to bolster their rotation, and while Odorizzi isn’t the ace they are seeking, he would immediately be no worse than the #3 starter, and probably their #2. Given his contract status and career numbers, I’d be very, very interested. I’d probably be willing to give up Max Kepler plus a B-level prospect, as a starting point for the trade conversation.
Yankees (Tyler Norton): The Yankees have checked in on Jake Odorizzi, per Ken Rosenthal, and that makes sense; Brian Cashman has been hunting for a starter all winter. Guessing the value of the right-hander, however, proves difficult. He has two years of control remaining, which is appealing, but hasn’t built upon his breakout 2015 season. Odorizzi’s peripherals, particularly his HR/FB rate, have gone backwards. I see him as a back-end starter, not a frontline rotation piece. Gerrit Cole, also traded with two years of team control, brought back a package headlined by a former top-100 prospect and the Astros’ organizational number five prospect. Odorizzi doesn’t have the same star power as Cole, but maybe a deal around those parameters could work. A fringe top-100 prospect and a player in the second half of the Yankees’ system? I’m not sure that Cashman would pull the trigger, though. If they gave up a Cole package, fans would be mad, but Cole hasn’t been as good as Odorizzi has over the last two years.
Read More: Potential landing spots for Jake Odorizzi
Athletics (Alex Hall): The A’s are not the least bit interested in a low-OBP slugging LF/DH, and I’m not sure why anyone else would be. Plus he’ll get expensive quick in arbitration thanks to dingers. If I did needed that skill set, I’d find a free agent slugger on the scrap heap -- there are plenty to choose from these days.
Cubs (Al Yellon): Corey Dickerson had a really good year in 2017, but doesn’t really fit the Cubs as he’s an OF (full) and DH (can’t use). He could have very high trade value for a team looking for an OF/DH though.
Marlins (Thomas Bennett): Corey Dickerson is another example of selling at the right time; if the Rays had tried to move him at the All-Star break, he would’ve garnered much more then at this point, where teams are forced to factor in his poor second half at the plate. I’d generously throw two middle prospects at him for his age 29 season.
Phillies (Liz Roscher): The Phillies already have Nick Williams, so Dickerson is just a redundancy. And I don’t mean to be rude, but Williams’ smile has the wattage of a million Dickersons. That doesn’t really factor in here, except in my mind. But if they did need or want him, they’d send a package that’s around what they’d send for Odorizzi, but perhaps a little more.
Rockies (Eric Garcia McKinley): Dickerson’s a hitter who has value for any team that needs hitting, and the Rockies fit that description. What they don’t need is another left-handed outfielder. Can he play first?
Twins (Tyler Gorsegner): Probably not very interested here. Maybe a 3 out of 10. Simply put, he fits the same general profile as Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Zack Granite, etc. If they were to add him, the deal would have to end up with a net improvement to my farm system or something. Basically, he would need to be part of a package.
Yankees (Tyler Norton): In any other year, Corey Dickerson would make sense for the Yankees. He’s a left-handed hitter with a nice amount of power. The Yankees love those guys. In light of the Giancarlo Stanton trade, however, the team has no shortage of outfielders. In fact, they’re trying to move one of their own. I just don’t see a match here.
Athletics (Alex Hall): The versatility would fit with the A’s but there’s not really space for more position players. I’d swap him straight-up for Brandon Moss if you needed a short-term LoMo replacement, just to shuffle around some mid-sized salaries to rosters where they make more sense.
Brewers (Kyle Lesniewski): Miller might be an interesting change of scenery guy and there is a need at 2B, but I’m not exactly sure he’s an upgrade over Villar/Sogard/Perez that’s currently in-house. As for a trade: You guys still need a 1B, right? Aguilar has become a bit of a spare part now.
Cubs (Al Yellon): Brad Miller had a bad year in 2017, and he could not break into the Cubs infield. Miller might be a buy-low candidate for someone, as he was really good in 2016, though.
Mariners (Lookout Landing Staff): Brad Miller? lol. Seriously, though, Miller wouldn’t make a bad utility option, but a man can’t stand in the same river twice.
Marlins (Thomas Bennett): Brad Miller...huh...noticing a theme here with all these guys coming off of poor seasons. He probably nabs a couple low prospects or another team’s change of scenery type player.
Nationals (Matt Weyrich): Brad Miller might’ve been a trade target for Washington earlier in the offseason before it signed Howie Kendrick to a two-year deal, but that utility role has since been filled.
Phillies (Liz Roscher): The Philies just don’t need any infielders. They don’t. They already have too many, and sadly Miller just isn’t good enough to warrant trading for. He hit .201 in 2017, and I just can’t imagine he’d be worth much. As it stands, even with his decent past performance, I wouldn’t send more than a low-tier prospect and some cash, or maybe a PTBNL.
Rockies (Eric Garcia McKinley): If infield depth is the need Miller’s a decent fit, but he’s redundant for anybody who already has either a glove or bat first utility player.
Twins (Tyler Gorsegner): He would need to be part of a package, and not the featured player.
Athletics (Alex Hall): Not interested in paying premium prices for proven closers, nor in speculating what such a thing would be worth. Saves are dumb.
Brewers (Kyle Lesniewski): Colome is an interesting piece and it’s always nice to have more good pen arms, but I’m guessing that’s probably not their focus right now. He would probably fetch one of their remaining top-100 level sort of guys plus another good prospect at the bare minimum though, I would imagine.
Cardinals (Craig Edwards): I could see the Cardinal acquiring Colomé for Harrison Bader and one other lower prospect.
Cubs (Al Yellon): Alex Colome is perhaps the No. 1 closer who is a trade candidate. Some Cubs fans think they should trade for him, I think the asking price is too high and the Cubs are committed to Brandon Morrow closing. A couple of mid-level pitching prospects at the Double-A level gets it done.
Mariners (Lookout Landing Staff): Alex Colome is intriguing, but the one area of depth the Mariners have is the bullpen, so any trade would be just swapping like for like, with the Mariners probably giving up younger relievers who they’d prefer to develop. Signing Juan Nicasio seems like a signal they’re done for now on that front with Nicasio, Diaz, and Vincent all set up to handle the back end of the pen.
Marlins (Thomas Bennett): 47 saves five years ago would’ve garnered a top prospect in return; nowadays, Alex Colome might get back a decent middle prospect and an interesting lower.
Nationals (Matt Weyrich): There never seems to be a time when the Nats aren’t rumored to be in seek of relief help. Colome would bump Sean Doolittle down from closer, which wouldn’t be the first the team has replaced a successful closer to add depth. This trade hinges on the Nationals’ willingness to part ways with Victor Robles or Juan Soto.
Phillies (Liz Roscher): Alex Colome would be a perfect fit if the Phillies hadn’t recently stocked up on relievers. His back-to-earth strikeout numbers are a little concerning, though. If a reliever went down, the Phillies could send a dude or two to the Rays, but since they’re not going to compete this year, I don’t think they’d give up much. Maybe a handful of their lower tier guys, or a combo of mid and lower tier. Objectively he’s probably worth more, but given how juiced the ball has been, that decline in strikeouts just spells disaster to me.
Rockies (Eric Garcia McKinley): Colomé may be more valuable at the trade deadline than he is right now (unless Greg Holland’s still a free agent in July), but there’s little value at the moment for a team that currently has a late inning bullpen plan.
Twins (Tyler Gorsegner): Alex Colome probably rates as about a 5 out of 10, but prior to this off-season, I would have rated him at about an 11 out of 10. The bullpen desperately needed some big time arms, but the Twins already addressed that problem. At this point, adding another arm is a luxury, and probably not worth the prospect cost. I’d pull the trigger on something like an A-ball pitcher with upside. I doubt you would do that though.
Yankees (Tyler Norton): The Yankees have a stacked relief corps as it is. That said, if Cashman can’t land a starter, he could go the “stupid good bullpen” route. Believe me, he’s done it before. Alex Colome would fit right in as a setup man-extraordinaire alongside David Robertson and Dellin Betances. The bullpen market has been tough to peg lately. I think a halfway point between the Ken Giles and Wade Davis trades makes sense. A back-end top-100 prospect and another young change-of-scenery character? They could always just sign Greg Holland and keep their prospects, though.
Athletics (Alex Hall): The only way I take Span is if it either lowers/negates the price for Odorizzi, or if you send me a solid prospect in exchange for taking the contract. No other team should do any differently.
Cubs (Al Yellon): Denard Span puts up pretty consistent numbers, but at his age and defensive ability he wouldn’t fit the Cubs outfield, and I think his value is low for pretty much anyone.
Mariners (Lookout Landing Staff): Jerry would rather eat McDonald’s.
Marlins (Thomas Bennett): You’re stuck with Denard Span. Sorry. Every team’s got one.
Nationals (Matt Weyrich): Denard Span was a fan favorite during his time in D.C. but his $15 million in guaranteed money over the next two years would be far to steep for the Nats to pay for a backup outfielder. Maybe if the Nats’ starting outfield suffered a string of injuries and Tampa Bay was willing to eat some of that contract…
Phillies (Liz Roscher): Denard Span hit fine last year, but he’s the opposite of what the Phillies are looking for. They’re a young team, and they’re looking for guys they can have around long term. If the Phillies are interested in him, something tragic has happened. If a team wants to trade for him, he could be worth an actual prospect or two. The Phillies just wouldn’t be the team to give it up.
Twins (Tyler Gorsegner): We’ve seen this movie. At Twinkietown, we love our old friends, but this is one reunion that shouldn’t happen. He would make our outfield worse, and therefore I would need to gain something else in a deal to make it worthwhile.
Yankees (Tyler Norton): Can I interest you in one slightly used Jacoby Ellsbury?
Thank you to all of our survey participants.