There’s a running joke among the DRB writers: JT, Darby Robinson, and myself are stationed atop Miller Mountain. As staunch Brad Miller defenders, whenever Miller collects a timely hit, or makes a nice snag at first base, one of us will tag the other two with a “Miller Mountain” comment, our us-against-the-world mentality in full gear.
Since the start of the season, it’s only gotten lonelier on Miller Mountain.
Through Friday’s game, Miller is slashing .235/.315/.383 with just three home runs and 21 RuBIns (runs+RBI) - a 93 wRC+ if you want to get composite with it.
He’s been below replacement level, per both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.
This is far from just a 2018 problem, though. In 2017, Miller was worth 0.0 fWAR, or 0.6 rWAR - pick your poison. He saw his home run total drop from 30 in 2016 to just nine in 2017, and his OPS dropped 122 points.
Here’s the thing, though: A lot of the stats say he shouldn’t be this bad. His walk rate surged in 2017, reaching a team-best 15.5 percent; his hard-hit ball rate (38.4 percent) ranked in the 81st percentile among batters in 2017 (min. 400 plate appearances), and the story hasn’t been all that different in 2018.
His walk rate is down a bit (15.5 percent to 10.9 percent), but it is still solidly in double-digits. Similarly, his hard-hit ball rate is down a bit (38.4 percent to 33.9 percent), but as we saw yesterday, he has been one of the “unluckier” batters by wOBA-xwOBA. His xwOBA (.365; league around is typically around .320) actually ranks third on the team behind only Denard Span and Daniel Robertson.
So what is going on here?
I asked noted robot and perpetually level-headed DRB writer, JT Morgan, and his response should help calm the nerves (at least a bit): It’s mostly (still) a small sample size issue.
In case, you’re skeptical, we’ve got some numbers for you. (Well, actually, JT has some numbers for you.)
So far, in 2018 (before Friday’s game), Miller owned a .116 wOBA on fly balls. The league average is .416. Lest you think that is just poor contact, Miller’s xwOBA (which, remember, accounts for launch angle and exit velocity, two vitally important factors of fly balls) is .432 - that gap is massive. He is 1-for-16 with a homer on fly balls.
In 2018, Miller has hit three fly balls at 100+ mph. He has nothing to show for any three of them. The league average on fly balls with an exit velocity between 100-105 mph is a .980 wOBA.
It’s not just fly balls, though. Here are the top ten in line drive exit velocity (min. 10 line drives) in 2018 (again, before Friday’s games):
1. Giancarlo Stanton 106.8 MPH
2. Gary Sanchez 103.2 MPH
3. Brad Miller 103.1 MPH
4. Joey Gallo 103.1 MPH
5. Miguel Cabrera 102.2 MPH
6. JD Martinez 101.6 MPH
7. Aaron Altherr 101.1 MPH
8. Yoan Moncada 101.1 MPH
9. Khris Davis 100.6 MPH
10. Logan Morrison 100.1 MPH
That’s a list of some of the hardest baseball hitters in the league right now, and it’s telling that despite that elite exit velocity, Miller is still underperforming in terms of wOBA on line drives, as well. His .791 wOBA far trails his 1.000 xwOBA on line drives this season.
Now, Miller has actually run a bit lucky on ground balls, which is why his BABIP (.302) doesn’t make him stick out as a potential “unlucky” Ray, at least in that sense.
As the numbers show, though, and as JT pointed out after all the numbers provided for this article: Miller’s SLG should show some serious signs of a bounceback before too long. His BA may still hover around the .235 mark it is at right now, but in his 2.3 fWAR 2016 season when he hit 30 home runs, he hit only .243. In fact, it’s not hard at all to imagine this 2018 Miller posting a better overall 2018 than his 2016 season.
In 2016, Miller posted only a .304 OBP; whereas, this season, with a much better walk rate, he is at .315. His defense has also been noticeably improved this year, and if he can just start getting some luck on those fly balls and line drives, it’s not hard to imagine his posting an OPS right around the .786 figure he had in 2016. His current OPS is .698, but this early in the season, simply one huge game could raise that figure almost the entire 88 point difference in OPS.
It’s far too early to give up on Miller.
The Rays have shown patience with Miller, pretty much consistently giving him at bats this season, despite the frustrations that must be growing without the lack of actual production. However, if he continues to hit the ball as he has, it’s just a matter of time before the numbers start to swing around in his favor again.