After a long slog through the minors, and a near miss in spring training, Johnny Field finally got his promotion to big club on April 12. Injuries to Kevin Kiermaier and Carlos Gomez have made the Rays lean on the rookie more than they intended, and it’s fair to say that he’s responded well, putting up a .308/.354/.554 triple slash line in 23 games (70 plate appearances). He’s even hit for power, not normally his calling card; his four homers are tied for fifth on the club.
So yes, Johnny has played well in his brief time. But you’ve been watching the games; you knew all that. The real question is this: is Johnny Field for real? Because lots of guys run hot for a while.
Joey Wendle was really good for a month before coming back to earth. Joey Butler was great for two months before he crashed. Curt Casali had his moments, and so did Mikie Mahtook.
Can Johnny keep up this pace? Let’s take a look!
First, his defense: Field has been called on to play all three outfield positions, and he has done admirably, recording positive DRS at all three spots and +4 DRS overall in just over 160 innings. His 18.7 UZR/150 is also small sample solid.
And that’s not news. Though his range and arm have never graded at the top of the class in the minors, versatility and reliability have always been a strength. You can see this if you squint at his Statcast catch probabilities, where he’s made only one out of six three star or above plays, but he’s 11 for 11 on one and two star plays. So Johnny can field like a big leaguer.
Things get dicier with the stick.
The first thing that jumps out at you when you look deeper at Field’s stats is his batting average on balls in play is a little elevated. The .372 BAPIP is higher than any full season he’s ever put up. The closest match to this sustained level was after his promotion to high-A in 2014, when he hit .320/.396/.547 with a 137 wRC+ over 40 games.
Then you see his .235 ISO, and...well, that’s not really sustainable for him. Especially for the contact he’s been getting.
Because honestly, for a guy who’s been this hot, his quality of contact is pretty average. His hard hit percentage is almost exactly league average, in fact, and his average exit velocity per Statcast is just 84.5 mph, good for 288th out of 313 hitters (minimum 50 batted balls).
He’s also pulling the ball less than he did in the minors, which could show that (maybe?) he’s not getting around on the ball as much. Or maybe it shows nothing at all, because we’re talking under 100 plate appearances.
On the plus side, his zone discipline hasn’t shown any glaring holes. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone more than typical, and his contact percentage is lines up with the average big leaguer. He’s maybe a touch passive in his approach, but nothing out of the ordinary.
If anything, his very typical plate approach could signal trouble itself, given that with this approach Field is still carrying a 25% strikeout rate (2% higher than league average, and several ticks higher than his track record), and walk rate of just 4.3%. But again, small sample size, yada yada.
[Note: There has been a lot of chat about stats “stabilizing” and their “reliability” and whatnot. For our purposes, lets just say that the strikeout numbers are at the point you can officially arch an eyebrow, while a shrug is still appropriate for the walk numbers.]
So has Johnny Field been “lucky”? Eh. In the sense that every one of us are lucky not to have been hit by a bus today, sure. But mostly, Field had gotten the results he deserved for his approach and the manner in which he’s hit the ball, with a couple of “well that was a nice surprise”s thrown in.
But no, you should not expect Field to keep hitting like this. The BABIP and especially the ISO will come back down. When it does, hopefully the walk rate rebounds to counteract that. If not...well, I’m sure Joey Butler is a nice person.
Field is simply a guy who is running hot. So let’s enjoy it while it lasts and not get ahead of ourselves. When the numbers come back to earth, we’ll get another chance to reevaluate him and see about his long term future. But given the way he’s played the outfield, I’d say he’s at least earned a long look as a fourth outfielder type.