Danny Russell: Did we all see this today?
You Can’t Blame Tanking for the Lack of Competitive Teams
A lot of teams are losing a lot of games. Are they actually tanking, though …
John Ford: Yes, I read a 538 piece a couple days about all the “tanking” teams, and it included the Padres and the Orioles, and I’m like NO that’s not tanking that’s being bad.
JT Morgan: Padres is questionable, but they did sign Hosmer so that’s something, and the Orioles definitely weren’t tanking. I think they massively misjudged where they were.
John Ford: Meanwhile “everybody” said the Rays were tanking and yet...
Baseball gonna baseball.
JT Morgan: Ya 30 games tells you very little about true skill level.
John Ford: I was pretty clear that I thought the Rays were going to be horrible, and I think they still might be. But just like it’s tough to build a baseball dynasty, it’s also tough to really tank
JT Morgan: I feel really conflicted. I thought they wouldn’t be bad because of pitching and defense. Those have under performed expectations and the bats have over performed. It’s a small sample though, and I expect it to swing back the other way and still be somewhere in the high 70s to 80 wins.
Ian Malinowski: Why do people not accuse teams of tanking when they sell at the deadline? (I think that’s an article that could be written)
Danny Russell: The Rays still might be real bad.
John Ford: Yep, it’s very early. They might have a 1-23 run in them.
Adam Sanford: 8 game win streak aside, they have been bad.
JT Morgan: I think part of this is also perception. I think somewhere around 80 wins and you definitely aren’t bad. The article even talks about the teams thinking they might win 80 games (teams like the Braves and Phillies) and be competitive.
John Ford: I think the only team that was “obviously tanking” that looks like they are doing it successfully so far is the Marlins. And it took an epic tear down to get there. And they still might be better than their record.
JT Morgan: Also divisions play some role in this. If you place the Rays in the ALC I think they’re a mid 80s win team this year.
John Ford: And I disagree that the Rays have actually been bad aside from the 8 game win streak. They are a reliable closer (which is the one piece they were actually supposed to have) away from being a .500-ish club against a really tough schedule.
JT Morgan: The Rays aren’t anywhere close to as good as the Yankees and Red Sox and if you’re judging that talent level to be good then I can’t say for certain the Rays will ever be good again like they were from 2008-10.
Mat Germain: Can’t predict the future, but I would say Rays could have taken first series vs Red Sox if they had any production from vets not named Span
So far in 2018 Rays have played like a 500 team. I think they finish 3rd in div.
Darby Robinson: I strongly push back against the idea that the rays have been bad except for their win streak
I mean that’s just empirically untrue. Close games against the Red Sox, including two games blown in the 9th and 8th innings (including a 6 run collapse). This is the first series lost in 5 and the Rays could have won all three with a single play here or there different. I think a near .500 ball club is what I expected and it’s what we got
Unless the Rays hit a ton more injuries, I can’t imagine this team is going to be “real bad” this season. But 75 wins and up for me is beyond the “real bad” level
Mat Germain: I will say that it’s possible a refreshed and younger pen mid-season along with Adames and Bauers takes this team to new heights. It’s also possible that they combine to sink the season below 70 wins.
Volatile’s the name of the 2018 Rays season.
JT Morgan: Every team is volatile though. It’s why having what people think are accurate projections aren’t really possible. You can project well over the a large group, but injuries (both enough to keep them out or just something that lingers for the whole year) and just luck. I know people hate the idea that luck is a major contributor, but it’s the truth.
My bad luck has moved onto the house. There’s a leak in my bathroom that I can’t currently find the culprit of. There’s just a massive puddle in the spare bedroom.
Danny Russell: JT, I’m sorry, that sucks!
I’m not sure it’s all luck though.
A good portion of my lawn is dead because I didn’t clear a bundle of sticks and some bushes I’d cleared before it snowed. That’s my fault for not knowing my grass would die! It was an unknown unknown. Still my fault though.
Elizabeth Strom: Not all luck, but some portion luck.
Well some things are obvious cause and effect relationships.
Not watering plants = plants die (my prime example).
JT Morgan: Right I’m not saying everything is luck, but there’s a big patch of luck both on the plus and minus side. Even if you’re bad you can be unluckily bad. Or you could be lucky to only look as bad as you do.
Mat Germain: unless like me you have nothing but cactus
JT Morgan: But there is a big dash of luck there.
Elizabeth Strom: But most things are mix of controllable and uncontrollable.
Danny Russell: Cause: The Rays are rebuilding, and have traded away the veteran players too expensive for this club
Effect: Bad luck? I think we can make other connections.
Elizabeth Strom: Smoking increases your risk of x disease but there is never a 100% causal relationship.
Having bad players makes it less likely you will win but you will still win some.
JT Morgan: I mean Longoria is the only one who qualifies there. The rest they just made choices. Maybe they were the wrong choices, but they didn’t do it to save money.
Danny Russell: Not only! Corey Dickerson leads left fielders in DRS and has not stopped sporting a Top-20 ranking on the Fangraphs leaderboard.
JT Morgan: I’ve been the biggest supporter of Dickerson in the outfield during his time here. I wrote about it a few times.
He was lucky to be the best in baseball the first month, because he’s clearly not that.
Mat Germain: I think this is Dickeron’s Beckham phase
Adam Sanford: Really wish we have found a way to get Tommy Pham...
Danny Russell: It’s not a direct line, Span has been good, but Span was also not necessary
JT Morgan: Span was necessary to get rid of Longoria’s contract. That is really the only guy gets too expensive for Rays that they traded.
Back to trying to figure this leak out.
Adam Sanford: Corey Dickerson isn’t this good, he striking out less than 10% of the time, making a ridiculous rate of contact against his career. Eventually the roof will cave in
Mat Germain: So I think the close calls on the Rays end - with Yarby, Yonny, Alvarado, and Pruitt especially - are not getting as much lenience in calls
And that’s led to a lot of extended innings that resulted in a few runs
Danny Russell: If there’s any luck trouble with the Rays it’s the elbow injuries (and two Tommy John surgeries so far) for Eovaldi and their three best starters out of Durham
Mat Germain: Nobody would argue against that. Were all 3 throwing splitters?
Danny Russell: No
Adam Sanford: I think they all 3 have un -rdinary pitching styles though
JT Morgan: Luck is always a factor. I agree the pitching injuries have been more unfortunate.
Adam Sanford: Honey as the screwball
Mat Germain: Yonny added the splitter last yr on Kyle’s advice. So did Stanek. I was wondering if JDL did the same, but wasn’t sure and he was already injured at that point anyhow
Danny Russell: Back on topic, I’d say the Rays biggest weakness has been the collapse of Colome. Is that luck?
Elizabeth Strom: That we saw coming a mile away.
I assume they tried to trade him hoping others hadn’t noticed.
Mat Germain: If the Rays had dealt Colome and pen was all youth, they would have been crucified for throwing young arms to wolves. I think it’s better that Colome takes the hits for now.
Elizabeth Strom: But JT is always reminding us that relief pitching involves such small samples with so little room for error that there’s a good dollup of luck always present.
JT Morgan: Ya I don’t think you can say this is Colome being broke or anything. He definitely went through a bad stretch.
Elizabeth Strom: Who was the reliever we all hated so much over the last few years? Dana Eveland? Well, even he sometimes got outs.
JT Morgan: Colome’s getting whiffs and Ks now. So I would expect things to be better.
Mat Germain: Agreed
Danny Russell: But struggling to get outs is not luck! I guess if his early season troubles were was caused by weather, then you could call it luck, but everyone was playing in snow, not just him.
Mat Germain: True - Rays done in by Weather?
JT Morgan: It’s not only that. Luck can be just timing of a bad stretch.
Elizabeth Strom: But different players may be impacted differently by weather. Maybe some fall apart in the heat.
JT Morgan: All pitchers go through bad stretches.
Are we going to say Kenley Jansen is useless because he was hit around?
I’m not saying Colome is Jansen.
Danny Russell: I certainly didn’t call Colome useless! Given the leverage of the situations, I imagine he deserves the most blame for the Rays being below .500 though.
JT Morgan: Yes, he deserved a lot of the run bad.
To be clear: I’m not really arguing for or against the Rays being lucky or unlucky so far. They’ve been lucky some and unlucky some. I don’t really know what the overall would equal.
The Honeywell, JDL, and Eovaldi injuries all combined have been pretty unlucky. The Rays have been quite lucky if you look at major arm injuries for pitchers. I don’t think they have a magic bullet of injury prevention and they would still be somewhere in the middle going forward.
Darby Robinson: For the most part the Rays have made smart gambles with the players they chose to let go (Dickerson’s ridiculous level of defense in the first month, not withstanding), but the three big arm injuries certainly threw a real wrench into things and Colome collapsing has definitely been a hindrance
I can’t fault bad luck for the losses too much or good luck for the wins. There’s always a good deal of luck, but for the most part the Rays are fairly normal as a team. Colome collapsing has been matched with Alvarado ascending. Archer slipping has been met with Snell rise to Ace. Faria early struggles were matched with Yonny, and now in the reverse
The Rays made questionable moves in the off-season, but I don’t have any reason to doubt that they actually did indeed build a team that wouldn’t be significantly worse than last years product. Despite some big injuries, that’s pretty much what we have got over a fairly small sample. The 8 game losing streak was propped up with some bad luck, but the 8 game win streak was propped up with good, so they sort of cancel out for me.
The Rays are firmly somewhere in between those extremes, and while that’s a fairly boring conclusion, I think that’s probably an accurate one.
JT Morgan: Found a pinhole sized hole in a pipe. So hopefully should be able to get this fixed pretty easily.
Elizabeth Strom: How did you even find it if it’s pin sized?
JT Morgan: Turn the water on and it sprays you in the face!
Danny Russell: A pinhole problem sounds like good luck, JT!