DRaysBay: All Posts by Cole MitchemA Tampa Bay Rays Blog: Ball on a Budgethttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48753/drb-logo-fv.png2022-11-28T12:03:33-05:00https://www.draysbay.com/authors/cole-mitchem/rss2022-11-28T12:03:33-05:002022-11-28T12:03:33-05:00Five free agent pitchers that fit The Rays Way
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<figcaption>Michael Lorenzen | Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Diving into some available arms on the open market ahead of next week’s winter meetings.</p> <p id="Apmewi">Over the past few winters the Tampa Bay Rays have been very active in the free agent pitching market. Corey Kluber, Brooks Raley, and Jason Adam were inked to major league contracts before the 2022 season, and Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Collin McHugh were signed in the previous offseason.</p>
<p id="wG1ZrJ">While none of these signings were of the super splashy variety, the Rays have seen successful results from this group of pitchers overall. Heading into 2023, the need for pitching is not as obvious. Realistically, the Rays could roll into the season with the arms that are currently on the roster and probably be just fine. As things stand today, FanGraphs projects the Rays to have the<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team"> 6th best pitching staff in MLB</a> by WAR.</p>
<p id="ATakyF">Although, the pitching corps is undoubtedly in good shape, the always opportunistic and creative Rays will not shy away from targeting a pitcher they think has some untapped potential. The Rays also appear to have some wiggle room spending-wise as their current payroll is projected to be about $18M less than the final figure they landed on in 2022 (though they do seem likely <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2022/11/24/rays-roster-taj-bradley-colby-white-curtis-mead-carson-williams/">to spend on a hitter or two this winter</a>).</p>
<p id="I4F5Yz">So, it’s not a given that the Rays will add pitching this offseason, but if they do, who fits the profile that they’ve been after recently?</p>
<h2 id="5TsPSO">Starting Pitcher/Bulk Options</h2>
<p id="QTkfNM">The Rays have a strong foursome at the top of their rotation in Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs. The fifth starter spot is a bit up in the air though, and the leading candidates appear to be Luis Patino, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming, top pitching prospect Taj Bradley, or a new roster addition.</p>
<p id="KirSBi">If the Rays look to add a veteran on a short-term contract to stabilize the back end of the rotation, just like they did in previous seasons, here are a few names that could make sense.</p>
<h3 id="eC1WTO">Michael Lorenzen</h3>
<p id="iCYNV5">Lorenzen has worn many hats in his career as far as pitching roles go. Starting games, closing games, middle relief, set-up duties, you name it and Lorenzen has probably done it. He even started big league games as an outfielder for a period of time a few years ago!</p>
<p id="aYuaSn">Last season, Lorenzen worked exclusively as a starting pitcher for the Angels where he posted a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP over 18 starts. He figures to hit the market again this offseason looking for another starting gig, but his flexibility to pitch in many different roles is likely very appealing to a team like Tampa Bay.</p>
<p id="04hkc3">The 30-year-old gets his outs using a wide array of offerings, many of which possess qualities that the Rays have sought out in other arms before. He works with both a four-seam fastball and a sinker that sit in the mid-90’s with above average spin rates. He also varies the usage of these two pitches depending on the handedness of the hitter (more sinkers to righties, more four-seams to lefties) in the exact same fashion that <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/2022/2/21/22914158/rays-way-pitching-extreme-sinker-splits">many Rays pitchers currently do</a>.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wondering what free agent pitcher the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rays</a> might target next? Here's a primer on a more recent addition to The Rays Way from last winter: Extreme sinker splits. <a href="https://t.co/bERh4cqITc">https://t.co/bERh4cqITc</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/draysbay?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@draysbay</a></p>— Danny Russell (@d_russ) <a href="https://twitter.com/d_russ/status/1597273356914462720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 28, 2022</a>
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<p id="7JvEKG">Both of his fastballs also generate a considerable amount of horizontal movement, which the Rays have placed a strong emphasis on recently. And speaking of horizontal movement, Lorenzen also uses a sweeping slider as his primary out-pitch, which is exactly what free agent targets Collin McHugh, Corey Kluber, and Brooks Raley primarily use as well.</p>
<p id="z7DMED">Mix in a curveball that gets big vertical drop, as well as a useable cutter and changeup, we’re looking at a pitch mix with a ton of intriguing ingredients here. Lorenzen’s 20.7 K% and 10.7 BB% in 2022 were both mediocre figures, but with new and improved coaching voices, hitter attack plans, and cues for throwing strikes, the Tampa Bay Rays may just be the team to help him blossom as a starter.</p>
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<h3 id="I8UweV">Seth Lugo</h3>
<p id="axR89j">The 33-year-old Lugo spent the 2022 campaign pitching out of the Mets bullpen and turned in a quality season (65 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.76 FIP). He’s being mentioned in the starting/bulk pitcher category here because he is <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/seth-lugo-rumors-free-agency-starter-mets.html">reportedly drawing interest as a starter</a> this winter. </p>
<p id="TcVdJq">Lugo worked as a starting pitcher in his first three seasons (2016-2018) and made a handful of starts in 2020 as well. He’s only been working in relief over the past two years, but the Rays have had recent success in turning relievers into starters (see Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs). Lugo could be the next in line.</p>
<p id="9m0vFF">Lugo’s curveball has always been his prized possession and he used it more than any of his other pitches in 2022. The pitch spins at an average of over 3,200 RPM which is right <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-arsenals?year=2022&min=250&type=avg_spin&hand=&sort=6&sortDir=desc">up there with the best in the sport</a>. The high spinning nature of the pitch creates a ton of vertical dropping movement, which is also a quality found in the curveballs of Rays pitchers Calvin Faucher and Tyler Glasnow, two trade acquisitions.</p>
<p id="gkI3Di">He pairs that right hook with a riding four-seam that sits in the mid-90’s, as well as a sinker and sharp upper 80’s slider that he uses sparingly. If a team thinks his four-pitch mix is diverse enough to work in longer stints, it could make sense to give Lugo a crack at earning a rotation spot with a relief role as a fallback option. </p>
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<h2 id="eHN1ZK">Relief Options</h2>
<h3 id="oGVLSJ">Tommy Kahnle</h3>
<p id="xLNr8b">After many successful seasons with the White Sox and Yankees, Tommy John Surgery caused Kahnle to sit out for the majority of the past three seasons. He finally made it back to MLB at the end of 2022 and finished on a high note. Kahnle only pitched in 12.2 innings last year for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but put up an excellent 30.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, and 68.0% groundball rate.</p>
<p id="b0t0Mg">Kahnle’s groundball rate ranked in the top 5 among all pitchers who threw at least 10 innings last season and was largely due to the incredible changeup that he throws. He used the pitch a whopping 76.4 percent of the time which was easily the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-arsenals?year=2022&min=100&type=n_&hand=&sort=5&sortDir=desc">highest mark in baseball</a>. </p>
<p id="w7rf0L">His changeup also averages a very firm 89.8 mph and generates over 31 inches of drop per Statcast, which is a combination of traits that is only found in a handful of big-league changeups. An important note here is that one of the other rare changeups that does meet these two criteria is thrown by the Rays very own Jason Adam, and was certainly a big reason why they targeted him last offseason.</p>
<p id="qvWTeG">The 33-year-old Kahnle also has a 96 mph four-seam in his back pocket, so he isn’t exactly a one-trick-pony either. This is the type of high-upside reliever who shouldn’t cost all that much given his age and recent injury history but could be a real difference maker for a team in 2023. <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1596900344251809792/">Jon Heyman has reported</a> that many teams have checked in on the right-hander already.</p>
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<h3 id="focKwC">Shelby Miller</h3>
<p id="h4YX8E">The 32-year-old Miller has had a long career with many ups and downs. And while you may not have realized he’s still pitching in MLB, he actually has quietly reinvented himself over the last year or so.</p>
<p id="6QPX9j">Shelby is now a reliever pitching only in short stints and split time in the 2022 season between the Yankees and Giants. He threw very well at the Triple-A level (53.1 innings, 31.2 K%, 9.5 BB%, 2.87 ERA) and was rewarded with a late season cameo in San Francisco where he struck out 14 of the 30 hitters he faced.</p>
<p id="bKw9g1">Miller is succeeding with a mid-90’s fastball that gets excellent riding action towards the top of the zone. He pairs that good heater with an 82-mph slider that generates big horizontal sweep. These unique pitch qualities have been commonplace among arms in this Rays stable in recent years. </p>
<p id="SE0eJg">On top of the intriguing movement patterns in his pitches, Miller also shows off elite release extension and spin rates on his offerings. Because of these pitch traits, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miller land a guaranteed <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/shelby-miller-drawing-interest-from-multiple-clubs.html">big league contract this winter.</a></p>
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<h3 id="a0wyLB">Pierce Johnson</h3>
<p id="DRXa2W">Johnson has been a very successful under-the-radar reliever for the San Diego Padres in recent years. He owns a 3.39 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and 32.2 K% over the past 3 seasons (93 IP) combined.</p>
<p id="AuNjWa">The 31-year-old was still effective in 2022 but did miss a large chunk in the middle of the season due to forearm tendinitis. Fortunately, he was able to come back and pitch meaningful innings for the Padres down the stretch.</p>
<p id="A7LwKD">The curveball is Johnson’s bread and butter, he throws the pitch <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-arsenals?year=2022&min=250&type=n_&hand=&sort=6&sortDir=desc">more often than anybody in baseball.</a> It’s thrown at a hard 84-mph, spins at a rate in the 92nd percentile, and possesses above average movement in both directions. The offering has always produced great results for Johnson, which also speaks to the good command he has of the pitch given the frequency he’s throwing it at.</p>
<p id="eW8b8l">He pairs his breaking ball with an active 95-mph fastball that has above average movement as well. This is a power relief profile that is likely available for a fraction of the price that many of the top arms in the class will go for.</p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2022/11/28/23480310/five-free-agent-pitchers-that-fit-the-rays-wayCole Mitchem2022-11-03T12:27:36-04:002022-11-03T12:27:36-04:00The Rays need a left-handed hitter. Who is out there?
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<figcaption>Joey Gallo | Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Analyzing the lefty sticks on the market</p> <p id="2ggFtI">A few days after the Rays 2022 season concluded, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander and manager Kevin Cash made themselves <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/kevin-cash-erik-neander-on-rays-2022-season">available for a media session</a> to reflect on the season past and share ideas about the offseason to come.</p>
<p id="5H0FsG">First, it certainly seems that the front office recognizes that there is room for improvement offensively. From Neander:</p>
<blockquote><p id="If1HAj">“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better. There’s an acknowledgement that, our standards offensively, we want to raise them.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="UkdIEw">Neander also touched on the fact that young players may have been overexposed in 2022:</p>
<blockquote><p id="pN5sKk">“Ideally, we find a little bit of a better balance (between young and experienced players). We don’t want to ask too much of too many who haven’t yet established themselves, but you want to give them those opportunities too”</p></blockquote>
<p id="3X3d4k">The lack of production against right-handed pitching specifically was also a talking point for Neander:</p>
<blockquote><p id="JlKTqT">“I don’t know if we’ve ever had a club that has struggled as much against right-handed pitching as this one did. That is something we’ve got to find a way to improve, and we faced a couple of good righties in the postseason and struggled with them.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="eiI88d">There were more topics discussed in this press conference, but these are the general themes that can help us try to think alongside the front office. The Rays are looking to improve their offensive unit by injecting more of a veteran presence in the lineup and by producing better against right-handers in particular. Given this, let’s take a look at the veteran lefty (and switch) hitters out on the market this winter.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Ideally, we find a little bit of a better balance (between young and experienced players)." <a href="https://t.co/NY79jF4EzK">pic.twitter.com/NY79jF4EzK</a></p>— Sports by Tampa Bay Times (@TBTimes_Sports) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Sports/status/1579980425828519938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 11, 2022</a>
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<h2 id="jAa3ir">Free Agents</h2>
<p id="VCJpPW"><strong>Brandon Nimmo:</strong> There may not be a more well-rounded lefty bat on the free agent market than Brandon Nimmo. He plays a fine center field and has posted gaudy OBPs throughout his career. Coming off of a 5.4 fWAR season, Nimmo may be looking at<a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10054457-mets-rumors-edwin-diaz-brandon-nimmo-to-be-prioritized-in-mlb-free-agency"> 9-figure offers this winter.</a></p>
<p id="7J3MS8"><strong>Anthony Rizzo:</strong> Rizzo is <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/cubs/news/report-former-chicago-cubs-anthony-rizzo-expected-opt-out-contract-with-new-york-yankees">expected to opt-out</a> of his contract with the Yankees this winter and become a free agent. The 33-year-old first basemen is coming off a 32-homer season in which he posted a strong 132 wRC+ over 548 plate appearances.</p>
<p id="VPXXG0"><strong>Michael Brantley: </strong>The sweet swinging Brantley is back on the open market and was off to a strong start in 2022 before a shoulder injury ended his campaign in late June. He will be turning 36 next year and may be heading towards full-time DH duties, but the veteran has posted a 120 wRC+ or higher in five straight seasons.</p>
<p id="jztY3w"><strong>Josh Bell: </strong>The switch-hitting Bell has a better career track record against right-handers than he does left-handers and is coming off a strong 2022 campaign. Bell has split time between DH and first base over the years, and he’s never been regarded as a strong defender.</p>
<p id="5XkAPR"><strong>Joey Gallo:</strong> The ups and downs of Gallo’s career are well documented, and his free agency will be a fascinating one to follow. He still plays solid corner outfield defense and has all the power in the world, but strikeouts have drowned his production. Could the Rays be the team that takes a shot on fixing the 29-year-old?</p>
<p id="zAl5na"><strong>Andrew Benintendi:</strong> The 2022 season was the best version of Benintendi we’ve seen in a while. He pairs great contact rates with solid plate discipline and corner outfield defense. The 28-year-old owns a career 116 wRC+ against righties and is due for a nice pay day in his first chance in free agency. </p>
<p id="0Iutc0"><strong>Joc Pederson: </strong>Pederson showed some of the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics">best quality of contact metrics</a> in baseball last season, and his production (144 wRC+) certainly matched it. The Giants used him mostly in left field in 2022, but his poor speed and defensive capabilities may force him to a DH role sooner rather than later. </p>
<p id="fFO3Uw"><strong>Michael Conforto:</strong> 2022 was a lost year for the veteran outfielder, as a shoulder injury prevented him from playing at all. He did <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/michael-conforto-drawing-interest-from-multiple-teams-boras/">receive signing interest from multiple teams</a> this summer but opted to recover and set his sights on 2023. Conforto will be entering his age-30 season and owns a career 136 wRC+ against righties. </p>
<p id="1KtDa1"><strong>Brandon Belt:</strong> Believe it or not, Brandon Belt was one of the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=18,d">best hitters in baseball across 2020 - 2021</a>. He unfortunately experienced an injury-riddled 2022 season though and will be turning 35 next year. After spending all 12 of his big-league seasons with San Francisco, it will be intriguing to watch what kind of interest he garners from different organizations this winter.</p>
<p id="jS9Lrf"><strong>Others: </strong>Carlos Santana, Matt Carpenter, David Peralta, Kole Calhoun, Tyler Naquin</p>
<h2 id="9eanhp">Non-Tender Candidates</h2>
<p id="VchMLv"><strong>Cody Bellinger:</strong> After his 2019 MVP campaign, Bellinger has seen his production fall off in recent years. He is still a strong defender in center field and was at least serviceable against right handers last season (92 wRC+), but Los Angeles will have to ultimately decide<a href="https://twitter.com/fabianardaya/status/1582471356733861888?s=46&t=v3rWkiHBHVyjJKqCC5_76Q"> whether or not he is worth the projected $18.1 million</a> he will receive in his final arbitration year.</p>
<p id="HEHWlX"><strong>Rowdy Tellez:</strong> Even after swatting 35 homeruns and 89 RBI for Milwaukee in 2022, Tellez was only able to accumulate 0.8 fWAR, mostly due to poor baserunning and first base defense. With a 2023 arbitration estimate of $5.3 million, the small-market Brewers may have to consider <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/potential-trade-candidate-rowdy-tellez.html">trading or non-tendering the lefty slugger</a>.</p>
<p id="hMfzf9"><strong>Ji-Man Choi:</strong> It’s worth mentioning that there is a corner lefty bat already on the Rays roster in Ji-Man Choi. However, Choi is projected to earn $4.5 million in his final arbitration year, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has reported that the <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2022/10/11/rays-primary-challenge-2023-getting-more-offensive/">Rays are likely to move on from him this offseason</a>.</p>
<p id="1D4UCM"><strong>Others: </strong><a href="https://nypost.com/2022/08/26/mets-dominic-smith-faces-trade-or-non-tender-after-season/">Dominic Smith</a>, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-12.html">Franchy Cordero</a>, <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/10/27/23380350/2022-season-in-review-ryan-ohearn">Ryan O’Hearn</a></p>
<h2 id="IcfCEK">Trade Candidates</h2>
<p id="6cvA3o"><strong>Bryan Reynolds:</strong> Seemingly in trade rumors every year, will we finally see<a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F3698550%2F2022%2F10%2F17%2Fpirates-offseason-bryan-reynolds%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.draysbay.com%2F2022%2F11%2F3%2F23422629%2Fthe-rays-need-a-left-handed-hitter-who-is-out-there" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank"> Bryan Reynolds traded this offseason</a>? The switch-hitting center fielder is coming off of yet another strong campaign and owns a 130 wRC+ against right-handers for his career. </p>
<p id="mB6rvS"><strong>Ian Happ:</strong> Happ was a <a href="https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/07/26/report-almost-everyone-wants-ian-happ-and-the-cubs-are-likely-to-trade-him/">hot commodity at the 2022 trade deadline</a>, but the Cubs ultimately decided to hold on to their 2022 gold glove left fielder. Happ, another switch-hitter, has seen significantly better results from the left side throughout his career, but in 2022 his splits were fairly even.</p>
<p id="Xko7ms"><strong>Jesse Winker:</strong> With only one year of team control remaining, there is a chance that Seattle entertains trading Winker, who has reportedly <a href="https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1680585/whats-next-for-mariners-and-jesse-winker-mlb-insiders-react/">developed a sour relationship with management and teammates</a> in his first year out west. Even after a disappointing 2022 season, Winker owns a career 136 wRC+ against righties.</p>
<p id="sA1HpT"><strong>Anthony Santander:</strong> The Orioles took major steps towards competitiveness in 2022, but they still did show a willingness to trade away veterans with dwindling team control (Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez). Could Santander, who is coming off a career-high 2.5 fWAR season and projected to make $7.5 million in his second arbitration year, <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2022/10/26/23419974/anthony-santander-broke-out-offensively-but-could-be-trade-bait-soon">be next on his way out</a>?</p>
<p id="REL4Ni"><strong>Seth Brown:</strong> Brown launched a career high 25 homers in 2022 including a very productive 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Oakland has been busy dealing veterans lately and the recently turned 30-year-old <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F3725665%2F2022%2F10%2F25%2Foakland-athletics-offseason-outlook-infielders%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.draysbay.com%2F2022%2F11%2F3%2F23422629%2Fthe-rays-need-a-left-handed-hitter-who-is-out-there" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Brown could generate trade interest this winter</a>.</p>
<p id="tJLAtf"><strong>Max Kepler: </strong>With only 1 year left on his contract, <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F3637566%2F2022%2F09%2F30%2Ftwins-trade-offseason%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.draysbay.com%2F2022%2F11%2F3%2F23422629%2Fthe-rays-need-a-left-handed-hitter-who-is-out-there" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kepler is seen as a likely trade candidate this offseason</a>. He pairs strong outfield defense with a good hitting track record against right-handers (career 111 wRC+). There’s also <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">a whole lot of red on his Statcast page</a>, if you’re into that.</p>
<p id="cLq6vx"><strong>Others:</strong> <a href="https://aroundthefoghorn.com/2020/08/17/sf-giants-trade-mike-yastrzemski/">Mike Yastrzemski</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1578091684721790976">Alex Verdugo</a>, <a href="https://www.soxon35th.com/examining-the-white-sox-1b-dh-log-jam-decision/">Gavin Sheets</a>, <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F3600963%2F2022%2F09%2F16%2Flamonte-wade-jr-2023-giants%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.draysbay.com%2F2022%2F11%2F3%2F23422629%2Fthe-rays-need-a-left-handed-hitter-who-is-out-there" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Lamonte Wade Jr.</a>, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/dbacks-rumors-daulton-varsho-outfield-alek-thomas-corbin-carroll-jake-mccarthy.html">DBacks outfielders</a></p>
<h2 id="ThJbmC">The Big Fish</h2>
<p id="O6LztQ"><strong>Shohei Ohtani: </strong>Back before the 2022 trade deadline it was reported that the <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/angels-trade-rumors-shohei-ohtani.html#:~:text=Jon%20Heyman%20and%20Joel%20Sherman,reigning%20AL%20MVP%20Shohei%20Ohtani.">Angels were at least listening to offers on Ohtani</a>, he of course did not end up getting traded. Los Angeles was said to have an astronomical asking price for their superstar and are <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/angels-not-discussing-shohei-ohtani-trades-at-present.html">reportedly not interested in trading him at this time</a>. Ohtani is a generational talent who is entering his final year of control for a poorly constructed team, will the Angels dare to open back up the phone lines this winter?</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/11/3/23422629/the-rays-need-a-left-handed-hitter-who-is-out-thereCole Mitchem2022-10-20T09:37:30-04:002022-10-20T09:37:30-04:00Rays 40-man roster end of season update
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<img alt="MLB: Wild Card-Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RE0Lm9tIJ-iv8d6ziltcKTWMOlQ=/0x0:7185x4790/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71520270/usa_today_19190007.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Where the Rays roster stands heading into the offseason</p> <p id="eA7abs">The 2022 regular season has concluded, and the brains of the Rays front office likely entered off-season mode weeks ago, so it’s time for us to do the same. This winter won’t be much different than recent off-seasons for the Rays, as they yet again have more quality players than the rules will allow for them to hold onto.</p>
<p id="RyH1GB">All of these moving parts will force the Rays to be active early on in the offseason. Everything will be on the table for the always creative Rays including trades, signings, non-tenders, prospect promotions, you name it. For all of us who love to put our GM caps on, here is your guide for where things currently stand roster-wise for the Tampa Bay Rays:</p>
<h2 id="4S0yo1">Current 40-man roster (38)</h2>
<p id="03IJP0"><strong>Pitchers (19): </strong><em>Jason Adam, Shawn Armstrong, Jalen Beeks, JT Chargois, Yonny Chirinos, Garrett Cleavinger, Pete Fairbanks, Calvin Faucher, Josh Fleming, Tyler Glasnow, Javy Guerra, Shane McClanahan, Luis Patiño, Colin Poche, Brooks Raley, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, Jimmy Yacabonis, Ryan Yarbrough</em></p>
<p id="iNpD2b"><strong>Catchers (3): </strong><em>Christian Bethancourt, Francisco Mejia, Rene Pinto</em></p>
<p id="aXvEfu"><strong>Infielders (8):</strong> <em>Jonathan Aranda, Vidal Brujan, Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco, Miles Mastrobuoni, Isaac Paredes, Taylor Walls</em></p>
<p id="COFECS"><strong>Outfielders (8):</strong> <em>Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Bligh Madris, Manuel Margot, Roman Quinn, Luke Raley, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri</em></p>
<p id="OQWlmB">After subtracting the impending free agents (which are listed in the next section), The Rays current 40-man roster sits at 38, including an even 19 pitchers and 19 position players. It is fair to say that not all of these players will be back with the Rays next year, especially considering a major league high <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/mlb-projected-arbitration-salaries-2023.html">19 of them will be arbitration eligible</a>. </p>
<p id="d5Zyov">The non-tender deadline is on December 1st.</p>
<h2 id="FCSNtw">Free Agents (4)</h2>
<p id="wGJZEg"><em>Kevin Kiermaier*, Corey Kluber, David Peralta, Mike Zunino</em></p>
<h5 id="VkPH1N">*Kevin Kiermaier is not technically a free agent yet, but it has been <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1573805497181929484?s=20&t=1VZtIW_yonk7G5t3wfZ7Pw">widely speculated</a> that the team will not be picking up his $13 million 2023 option and will instead pay him a $2.5 million buyout.</h5>
<p id="okZh0M">Impending free agents David Peralta and Corey Kluber were the two oldest players to play for Tampa Bay in 2022. After four straight seasons of serving as the Rays primary catcher, Mike Zunino is entering free agency, though there is some <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2022/10/11/discussions-then-decisions-coming-kevin-kiermaier-mike-zunino/?itm_source=parsely-api">mutual interest in a reunion</a>. </p>
<p id="FGC0Xd">On the whole, that’s a lot of veteran leadership heading out the door. </p>
<h2 id="BN14IA">60-day Injured List (7)</h2>
<p id="TTl2xp"><em>Nick Anderson, Shane Baz, J.P. Feyereisen, Andrew Kittredge, Brandon Lowe, Brendan McKay, Ryan Thompson</em></p>
<p id="Mk4iL7">On November 5th the Rays will face their first deadline of the offseason: The 60-day IL activation date. </p>
<p id="vbwRzs">This means that for any injured players the Rays wish to keep in the organization, they will need to add them to the 40-man roster a few days after the World Series concludes. Once this deadline passes, free agency and trading opens up for all clubs.</p>
<p id="WUAYTj">Right now, there are only two open spots on the 40-man roster, which means the Rays will need to find a way to clear five additional spots in order to protect all seven of these injured players. It is fair to wonder though if all seven of these players will in fact be protected. For example, will Tampa Bay look to move on from oft-injured pitchers like Nick Anderson and Brendan McKay?</p>
<h2 id="hoKZxB">Rule 5 Eligible Prospects</h2>
<p id="TMJpCv"><em>Curtis Mead, Taj Bradley, Colby White, Xavier Edwards, Greg Jones, Heriberto Hernandez, Osleivis Basabe, Kameron Misner, Brett Wisely, Jose Lopez, and more...</em></p>
<p id="8cv2Rb">Shortly after the 60-day IL players must be activated, the Rays will have to decide which of their rule 5 prospects to protect by November 20th. Any eligible prospect who is not protected by the deadline will be available to all teams in the rule 5 draft at the winter meetings.</p>
<p id="wyqTE7">Curtis Mead and Taj Bradley are the two top tier prospects in this crop and will certainly be added to the roster. After those two come the hard decisions. </p>
<p id="nYylY7">The team’s infield prospects is the most interesting discussion, as there doesn't appear to be room for all of Xavier Edwards, Greg Jones, and Osleivis Basabe on the roster, especially considering utility players such as Miles Mastrobuoni, Jonathan Aranda, and Vidal Brujan are already on the 40-man. </p>
<p id="45GJFs">Colby White is another strong possibility to be added, as he had huge success as a reliever in the Rays system but he underwent Tommy John surgery during the 2022 season. </p>
<p id="2tPrN5">If you’re wondering how the Rays may approach this situation, last season’s blueprint can provide some context. </p>
<p id="tMMYXL">In November 2021, the Rays added five prospects to their 40-man roster before the rule 5 deadline (Jonathan Aranda, Calvin Faucher, Rene Pinto, Ford Proctor, Tommy Romero) and traded another (Tobias Myers). The Rays made a few small additional trades in November to clear space for these players as well (Mike Brosseau, Louis Head, Brent Honeywell Jr.).</p>
<p id="y6TrRd">This is a lot to think about, so I’ll end with a question for y’all:</p>
<div id="PI5ilT"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11576487"></div></div>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/10/20/23413595/rays-40-man-roster-end-of-season-updateCole Mitchem2022-09-23T14:00:00-04:002022-09-23T14:00:00-04:00Garrett Cleavinger is the latest Rays pitching success story
<figure>
<img alt="Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VUnEXVNOoUnNEoap5uVjl4TXiz4=/0x0:2683x1789/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71406822/1424128892.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The big lefty is filling up the strike zone, and no one is hitting it</p> <p id="W72akW">On August 1st of this year, the Rays swung a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers which didn’t generate very many headlines. Tampa Bay acquired 28-year old lefty reliever <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/garrett-cleavinger/17897/stats?position=P">Garrett Cleavinger</a> in exchange for 19-year old outfielder <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/german-tapia/sa3015850/stats?position=OF">German Tapia.</a></p>
<p id="Rk2h4Q">Cleavinger was hanging out on the Dodgers Triple-A roster at the time which made 2022 his eighth straight season pitching in the minors. He had a few cups of coffee in MLB for both Philadelphia and Los Angeles in recent years, and was actually traded from the former to the latter in <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30619255/philadelphia-phillies-get-jose-alvarado-three-team-trade-tampa-rays-los-angeles-dodgers">a 3-team deal involving the Rays.</a></p>
<p id="2091KP">The reason that Cleavinger was available probably had to do with the Dodgers managing a 40-man roster crunch, and needing to create space for their trade deadline additions. That situation paired with Cleavinger’s inconsistent results in Los Angeles led to him becoming the odd man out when push came to shove.</p>
<p id="wDCv0Q">When Garrett was acquired, the Rays optioned him to AAA Durham as they had a fairly crowded bullpen of their own at the time. Cleavinger immediately impressed.</p>
<p id="Cnzps5">He fired 9 innings with the Bulls which included 17 punch-outs and just 1 earned run allowed. It didn’t take long for the Tampa Bay front office to give him a shot with the big league club, and he has actually pitched even better since that promotion.</p>
<p id="DBBPF7">As of Friday, September 23rd, Cleavinger owns a 1.93 ERA and an absurd 0.75 FIP in his 14 frames since joining the squad. 18 strikeouts and just 1 walk allowed in his time with the Rays so far is a gaudy ratio, let’s take a look at how he’s doing it.</p>
<h3 id="QE74N8">What has he changed in Tampa Bay?</h3>
<p id="0EaCkk">Perhaps surprisingly, there actually hasn’t been a whole lot of change in Cleavinger’s repertoire. The shapes of his pitches are all similar to the pitches he threw with the Dodgers, and the usage patters of those pitches hasn’t changed a whole lot either.</p>
<p id="DwiQnu">What has changed for Cleavinger though is his attack plan. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/featured/rays-key-to-pitching-success">We’ve seen many new Tampa Bay pitchers succeed</a> by attacking the zone more often, and Cleavinger is the latest example.</p>
<p id="2HvnnC">The league average first-pitch strike rate in baseball this season is 61.3%. Before joining Tampa Bay, Cleavinger had amassed 23 total innings in his big league career and recorded a <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2022&month=1000&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=17897&startdate=2020-04-01&enddate=2022-08-02">first-pitch strike rate of 55.4%</a>, a figure well below the league average. In his 14 innings with Tampa Bay though, he has recorded a 64.1% first-pitch strike rate, a sizeable improvement.</p>
<p id="fo3Vjg">Cleavinger’s walk rate has also improved dramatically, as he’s posted a miniscule 2.0% mark as a Ray compared to his career 13.4% rate.</p>
<p id="1TVanA">In conjunction with the uptick in strike throwing for Cleavinger, batters are also chasing more pitches outside of the zone. At first blush, it might not make much sense that these two stats are coinciding—how does more strikes lead to more chases?</p>
<p id="jVljhp">The answer to that question is largely captured by these four words: Cleavinger has excellent stuff.</p>
<h3 id="Sj2QLg">Cleavinger’s Impact Arsenal</h3>
<p id="lNFIBs">The Rays have an advanced methodology when it comes to scouting and acquiring pitchers, and the quality of Cleavinger’s arsenal checks all the boxes. Starting with his fastball, the most obvious pitch trait is his velocity.</p>
<p id="fKu6uP">Cleavinger is averaging 96.1 mph on his fastball this season (83rd percentile) and has topped out at 98.8mph. While velocity is definitely important, we know in the modern game that it is only a piece to the fastball effectiveness puzzle. The best fastballs have more going in their favor than just velocity, and Cleavinger is no exception to that.</p>
<p id="vQUWSr">The chart below shows the average vertical movement plotted against the average release height of all MLB pitcher fastballs this year (minimum 25 thrown):</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/B4j3WvEGLxy6SJMmtzZF46tMOVc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24047669/Screenshot_2022_09_23_085616.png">
<figcaption>Data Source: <a class="ql-link" href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/chamb117/viz/PitchLeaderboardv4/Dashboard" target="_blank">Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard</a>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Jahn8I">If you think about the physical mechanics of throwing a fastball, the pitchers who come over-the-top the most are also going to be the pitchers with the highest release points. These high releases will lead to better backspin on the baseball, which is how good vertical movement (“ride” or “carry”) is produced.</p>
<p id="JFK2j8">Cleavinger lands on the peripheries of this plot because of how he is able to produce strong vertical movement from the low arm slot he possesses. That paired with the above-average velocity on the pitch creates a really unique offering with a high vertical angle of approach, which batters have so far had real difficulty handling.</p>
<p id="HxVE6l">In addition to a four seam with outlier traits, what if I told you Cleavinger also has a different fastball that is just as unique if not more?</p>
<p id="TiEim7">That pitch would be his sinker, which Cleavinger isn’t using a whole lot at the moment, but definitely is worth talking about. Garrett throws his sinker above 95 mph on average as well, and the pitch gets truly elite movement in the horizontal direction to his arm-side. Those two traits are a rare combination when it comes to sinkers across the league.</p>
<p id="DbnZnb">You can clearly see the pitch barreling in on the hands of Yordan Alvarez here, and he couldn’t do anything but <a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/67b7dea3-92b0-413c-b6a6-2466e67ef6de.mp4">swing right through it</a>:</p>
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<p id="BNAVBM">Two really strong fastballs are the foundation of a special repertoire for the 28-year old, but Cleavinger’s slider is the real put-away weapon. </p>
<p id="tIBcte">His slider is currently his most used pitch, and for good reason. Batters are only hitting .156 with a .216 wOBA against it in 2022. Cleavinger throws his slider at a pretty firm 82.8 mph and generates great downward movement with the pitch.</p>
<p id="t9bIiP">Pete Fairbanks is baseball’s king of slider drop, but Cleavinger is not far behind him. Both pitchers’ sliders rank in the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-movement?year=2022&team=&min=100&pitch_type=SL&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden">top 5 in vertical movement compared to sliders at similar speeds.</a> The dropping movement of this pitch paired with the carry of his fastball creates nearly perfect mirroring action between the spin of the two pitches. </p>
<p id="ejSIdk">One pitcher who possesses <em>this </em>many outlier pitch shapes is extremely hard to find in today’s game. The Rays have not only found one in Cleavinger, but have helped him harness that elite arsenal, which has lead to his emergence as an impact reliever.</p>
<p id="z0VKo2"></p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/9/23/23362816/garrett-cleavinger-latest-tampa-bay-rays-pitching-success-storyCole Mitchem2022-08-24T15:20:17-04:002022-08-24T15:20:17-04:00Yandy Díaz has found the best version of himself
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<img alt="MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/97xZbVSazjUooV4Mn1lRv2R4uTA=/0x0:5268x3512/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71280680/usa_today_18876326.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>His fourth year in Tampa Bay has been his most successful season yet</p> <p id="XaA7lb">Let’s rewind to about five years ago. The Tampa Bay Rays were coming off of four straight losing seasons (2014-2017), and weren’t exactly viewed as a threat in the AL east coming into the 2018 season. They showed a bit of life in the first half of the year, posting a record of 49-47. </p>
<p id="fD2AZu">That first half record was an improvement over recent previous records, but it didn’t really <em>feel </em>like much progress was being made. The veteran position player corps of C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, and Matt Duffy was producing, but wasn’t exactly a group that excited many fans for the future.</p>
<p id="NrDouK">The second half of 2018 was a completely different story. The team soared to a 41-25 record over that stretch, the second best record in Major League Baseball. </p>
<p id="zvxE8I">Tampa Bay acquired veteran hitters Tommy Pham and Ji-Man Choi in mid-summer trades, both of whom became among the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=170&type=8&season=2018&month=31&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2018-12-31&sort=18,d">most productive hitters in the American League after joining the Rays.</a> Minor league infielders Brandon Lowe and Willy Adames made their big league debuts in the second half and instantly became contributors. Youngsters Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows were just brought over from Pittsburgh and were knocking on the big league door. Blake Snell was cruising his way to a Cy Young Award.</p>
<p id="LbU4rd">There was suddenly a level of excitement around Tampa Bay baseball that had been missing for half a decade. The window for contention was starting to open.</p>
<p id="k0pXVF">Next came the offseason, where the Rays were looking to supplement this new young core with more external help. They added a front-line starter in Charlie Morton, a starting catcher in Mike Zunino, and a few other solid contributors (Avisaíl García, Emilio Pagán, etc.) before the start of the 2019 season as well.</p>
<p id="kLkIoQ">Those additions made plenty of sense when it came to roster construction, but the Rays made one move that winter that left many Tampa Bay fans perplexed.</p>
<p id="88NiNG">That move? Trading for Yandy Díaz.</p>
<p id="JUlIT0">The trade was a three-team deal involving Cleveland and Seattle, where Tampa Bay sent Jake Bauers and $5 million cash in exchange for Yandy Díaz and minor league reliever Cole Sulser. <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/12/13/the-upside-and-downside-of-the-rays-trade-for-yandy-diaz/">Many in the industry were confused by this move</a>, and thought that this was a steep price to pay for Díaz.</p>
<p id="Pl96v2">The Rays were acquiring a guy who was never a highly touted prospect and had yet to establish himself in the big leagues at 27-years old. Tampa Bay placed a bet on a player with outlier skills, and a bet on their coaching staff to help the player maximize them.</p>
<p id="z7mxo1">When Díaz first arrived in St. Petersburg, he immediately started to make the changes that everyone thought he would. More flyballs! More pulled balls! Extra base hits! </p>
<p id="EFEpxg">It appeared that the Rays had turned a hitter with an excellent approach and contact profile into a true producer by helping him lift more batted balls. His isolated power almost doubled from 2018 to 2019. The Rays and Yandy were really doing it. </p>
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<p id="m1bsGn"></p>
<p id="PQmTHw">Then 2020 rolled around and we saw a completely different Yandy Díaz. All the progress he had seemingly made in the power department was erased. He only racked up two homeruns during the 34 games he played and was hitting <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=130&type=2&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=6,d">more groundballs than any player in baseball</a>. He missed a considerable chunk of time during 2020 due to a hamstring injury, and it was fair to wonder if he was compensating for it in a way that changed his approach. </p>
<p id="NlbH3e">What is most fascinating here though is that Díaz was actually <em>more </em>productive in 2020 than he ever had been before. Instead of lifting more pitches, he honed in on the strike zone and posted career-best strikeout and walk rates which resulted in the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=130&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=14,d">American League’s highest OBP at .428</a>. </p>
<p id="zyvoFy">Yandy truly had a “get on base at all costs” approach in the shortened 2020 season. Even though it worked, it was fair to wonder if this groundball-heavy, no power approach was sustainable, which left a somewhat conflicted feeling among fans. </p>
<p id="ITdSr5">These first two years of Díaz’s Rays career left all kinds of questions about the future. Which Yandy will we get moving forward? Which Yandy do we want moving forward? How big of a role are injuries playing into his performance?</p>
<p id="j1RZio">Díaz answered those questions with a strong campaign the following year. From a production standpoint, his 2021 season mirrored his 2019 season very closely. His flyball/groundball and push/pull tendencies were very similar, and he traded some of his power for a bit more contact and walks. Overall though, his value as a hitter ended up being in the same neighborhood of his 2019 season (111 wRC+ versus a 118 wRC+).</p>
<p id="2rn614">After the conclusion of last year, it sort of felt like we knew who Yandy Díaz was. His 2019 and 2021 seasons represented the true talent of the player, while 2020 seemed to be a shortened and injury-riddled outlier season, even though he was still very good.</p>
<p id="Vy0QE2">That leads us right into 2022. Just when we think we’ve figured out who Yandy is as a hitter, he tinkers with his approach yet again, only this time it’s led to the best Yandy we’ve seen yet.</p>
<p id="4q0olS">In order for Díaz to achieve his first breakout at the plate, he needed to hit for more power. Check. In order for him to take yet another step forward with the bat, he needed to hit for less power? Yes, sort of.</p>
<p id="OGJFxt">Díaz isn’t exactly trying to hit for less power, but he is trying to do a few different things at the plate which in combination have led to less power, but overall have created a better hitter. Let’s dig in.</p>
<p id="psZyBq">First off, Yandy has placed a large emphasis on making contact this season, and currently owns the lowest strikeout rate and swinging strike rate of his career. Never, a big whiffer, he is whiffing even less than before on pitches located in quite literally all areas of the strike zone:</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PUL44EDkrfCnSL2k0V-9r9IQm7A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23968046/Screenshot_2022_08_24_120015.png">
<figcaption>Yandy Diaz Zone Whiff Rates 2021 vs 2022</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="FCJg3m"></p>
<p id="0YSt0X">In tandem with a career-best contact profile, Yandy is also running a career high hard-hit rate. Unlike other times in his career where these two skills were inversely connected for him (and for most hitters), this year he has mastered both skills at the same time. </p>
<p id="PEsoaw">Even though Yandy is hitting the ball consistently harder than he ever has, he is actually not hitting for more power this season. His isolated power and slugging percentage in 2022 are both below his career marks.</p>
<p id="hVVcqD">Instead, Díaz has actually toned down on the launch angle of those hard hit balls. In 2021, 17% of his hard hit balls were hit at a launch angle of 25 degrees or higher. This season, only 11% were launched 25 degrees or higher. </p>
<p id="g62EgW">What this means is that Yandy is hitting at angles where balls in play are most most likely to become hits. Batted balls hit at 25 degrees or higher do fall for extra base hits at times, but they end up in outfielders gloves more often than not. </p>
<p id="GfAlSt">Yandy is hitting balls at lower angles and the results are hard to argue with. We can see the evidence of this in his increased BABIP this season, as well as his improvements in expected stats such as <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/yandy-diaz-650490?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">xBA and xwOBA</a>.</p>
<p id="CJciof">More batted balls falling for hits equals more times on base for the big fella, and his current .384 OBP is a great reflection of that. Díaz has never had any trouble getting on base in his career, but in some seasons he has cost himself in that department in an attempt to add power. </p>
<p id="P59IGJ">This year however, he seems to have really leaned into his exceptional ability to get on base, and has only enhanced that skill of his even further. His power is still showing up at times, but it seems to be more of a byproduct of his current approach, rather than a focus.</p>
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<img alt="Tampa Bay Rays v Detroit Tigers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eunTjk3gi95F0ePsJl2W2rzZL-s=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23968537/1413312324.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="chqTRo"></p>
<p id="Mr789Y">Yandy’s 2022 season up to this point has been remarkable. He’s easily been the most consistent force the team has had on offense, and currently leads all <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=80&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=12&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=21,d">Rays position players in WAR</a>.</p>
<p id="Xf2g4N">Díaz has been a handful of different hitters during his Rays tenure, and the latest version has been the most productive one yet. This is also a good reminder that hitting is far more complex than “hit more flyballs = good.” </p>
<p id="K5y98y">Every player has certain strengths and weaknesses, and tinkering to test what works and what doesn’t is often a crucial piece to the development puzzle. How would Yandy have known that his previous approaches, which were working just fine, weren’t actually optimal if he never tried new things at the plate?</p>
<p id="J4jQxN">The Rays have such a unique and gifted hitter on their hands, and who knows, maybe we see even more tweaking and potentially more production from Yandy in the years to come.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/8/24/23312802/yandy-diaz-has-found-the-best-version-of-himselfCole Mitchem2022-07-22T13:00:00-04:002022-07-22T13:00:00-04:00Three relief pitcher trade targets for the Rays
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<img alt="MLB: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JukuiN7I4SWV64lKM3N60MPPC2M=/0x0:5080x3387/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71163083/usa_today_18566681.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s trade speculation season!</p> <p id="UbPMFG">If you find yourself reading articles about relief pitcher trade candidates between now and the end of the month, you’ll start to see a lot of familiar names. This is the case every year throughout the month of July, as competing teams are almost always looking to fortify their bullpens.</p>
<p id="RCFPyM">David Robertson (CHC), Daniel Bard (COL), and David Bednar (PIT), are just a few of the many common names that have surfaced this summer as relievers that could potentially be on the move. The Rays however have never been a team that seems all that interested in paying the inflated prospect return price for arms such as these who sit at the top of the market.</p>
<p id="HXPB0q">Instead, Tampa Bay tends to target pitchers who have unique pitch qualities in their arsenals, with the hopes of helping them maximize their potential after arriving here. </p>
<p id="dgD9Xw">Rewind to the 2019 trade deadline, when the club traded away a consensus top 50-prospect (in the public sphere at least) in Jesús Sánchez for reliever Nick Anderson, who had only logged 43.2 big league innings under his belt at the time. The acquisitions of Pete Fairbanks, Jeffrey Springs, J.P. Feyereisen, and Matt Wisler are more recent examples of this Rays organizational acquisition philosophy, and it’s not hard to see how these moves have improved the club. </p>
<p id="WTLIL5">With all of that being said, this article is going to highlight three big league relievers who are not popular trade candidates, but who are displaying traits that the Rays have valued in the past and could make for quality under-the-radar pickups at the end of this month.</p>
<p id="3utW4u"><em>The pitch movement measurements in this article are from Pitch Info Solutions</em></p>
<h2 id="xDo0O4">Tommy Nance – Miami Marlins</h2>
<p id="bYiHIr">The Marlins scooped Nance up on a minor league deal this past offseason and he’s thrown 22 innings with the big league club this year. His season results have been mixed, as his 6.00 ERA isn’t very good, but all of his other ERA estimators are under 4.00 which suggests he’s pitched better than his actual ERA implies.</p>
<p id="g4q0tu">The reason why his peripherals have been so strong this year is largely because of the quality of Nance’s repertoire. His most used pitch is his curveball, which is a true outlier offering. It’s one of the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-movement?year=2022&team=&min=q&pitch_type=CUKC&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden&sort=5&sortDir=desc">fastest thrown curveballs in the big leagues this year</a>, registering at an average of 85 mph. On top of the impressive velocity, the pitch gets great movement in both the horizontal (6 inches) and vertical (-7 inches) directions. This combination of movement and velocity on a breaking ball is basically non-existent across the league, and the curveball of Rays reliever Calvin Faucher may actually be the closest comp. These pitch qualities have allowed Nance’s <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenal-stats?type=pitcher&pitchType=CUKC&year=2022&position=undefined&team=&min=50&sort=11&sortDir=desc">curveball to rank among the league leaders in whiff rate this season</a>.</p>
<p id="bSshfI">Tommy pairs his devastating hook with a sinker that looks like a strong pitch in it’s own right. It averages 94 mph and gets very good down-and-in action out of his hand. This pitch hasn’t generated great results for Nance in 2022, but it’s raw qualities match up with what the Rays have targeted in sinkers in recent years.</p>
<p id="k8bcSM">About 80% of Nance’s pitches this season have been sinkers and curveballs, but he does also mix in a four seam fastball and slider too. Like his curveball, his slider is also thrown quite hard (86.4mph on average) and generates above average depth.</p>
<p id="YlE5yo">It’s important to note that there’s a <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article263168823.html">chance that the Marlins will look to add to their team before the deadline</a>, not subtract from it. However, Nance does not seem to be an integral part of their bullpen moving forward. Miami actually just optioned him to AAA this month, and have been using him in low leverage opportunities all year. From the outside, it doesn’t appear that it would cost very much to acquire Nance, and especially so if he gets pushed down the depth chart even further due to <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/23202334/top-2022-miami-marlins-trade-deadline-targets">the Marlins potentially acquiring in more relievers</a>.</p>
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<h2 id="2d74Ea">Robert Stephenson – Colorado Rockies</h2>
<p id="6DBEe2">Stephenson has been pitching in the big leagues for a while now, but has never been able to produce consistent results. He debuted in 2016 and owns a career 4.83 ERA and 4.92 FIP across 285 innings.</p>
<p id="3TReUv">Stephenson has a few successful seasons under his belt (2019 and 2021), but his loud stuff profile leads me to believe there’s even more in the tank. </p>
<p id="y1Ut87">We’ll start with his fastball, which averages a blazing 97 mph (92nd percentile). In addition to the velocity, it is also a fastball that averages over 21 inches of total movement (the combination of horizontal and vertical movement), which is a very high figure. The Rays have targeted these types of fastballs that don’t have amazing movement in either direction, but instead have pretty good movement in <em>both </em>directions, which makes for a fastball with a lot of total movement. Jeffrey Springs and Shane McClanahan throw this type of fastball, and Chris Ellis, Adam Conley, and Ben Bowden are more minor examples of recent Rays acquisitions who had this same type of fastball movement.</p>
<p id="Vh5LfD">In addition to the intriguing qualities of the pitch, there also may be opportunity with how Stephenson uses it. This season, <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=1%7C2%7C3%7C&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&team=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=250&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=asc&chk_pitch_type=on#results">only 15% of his fastballs have been thrown in the upper third of the strike zone</a>, which is one of the lowest marks among all four seamers in baseball. It’s likely that if he can get that pitch up to that spot more often, more whiffs and more success will come from it.</p>
<p id="wTgOI2">Stephenson is pretty much a two-pitch pitcher, with his other offering being the slider. It averages 83.8 mph and gets decent movement vertically, but not much horizontally. That scouting report doesn’t sound all that great though, so what’s there to like about it?</p>
<p id="ViDWqm">The answer lies in his spin rate. Stephenson averages 2,889 rpm on his slider, <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-arsenals?year=2022&min=250&type=avg_spin&hand=&sort=4&sortDir=desc">which ranks in the top 5 among all qualified sliders this year</a>. Now, spin rate isn’t all that meaningful if the spin isn’t translating to movement, which is exactly what is happening here. This looks like an opportunity for a pitching coach to help Stephenson maximize this great spin he is generating by using it to create more pitch movement. The Rays have helped multiple pitchers make this exact adjustment before, including <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/2022/4/18/23020929/jason-adam-looks-like-a-high-leverage-reliever">Jason Adam </a>and <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/2021/11/15/22776370/have-the-rays-been-targeting-a-specific-slider-shape">Drew Rasmussen</a>, who both had slider shapes that were very similar to Stephenson’s before they came to Tampa Bay.</p>
<p id="FMcfwo">Stephenson is 29 years old, out of minor league options, and has only one more full year of team control remaining. This is the type of player who the Rockies should be willing to discuss in trade talks, but who knows, Colorado has made all kinds of puzzling roster decisions in recent years.</p>
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<h2 id="ihCPGN">Chris Stratton – Pittsburgh Pirates</h2>
<p id="2CpH0t">As we’ve seen over the past few years, the Pirates will trade just about anybody who is running out of team control. A free agent to be at the end of 2023, 31-year old Chris Stratton looks like another player out of Pittsburgh who is likely attainable.</p>
<p id="MiwTWZ">Stratton hasn’t been all that effective this year but his 3.79 FIP does suggest that he’s probably pitched better than his 5.17 ERA would tell you. He mostly works with a four seam, curveball, and slider, all of which are pitches with intriguing characteristics. </p>
<p id="9EB8Z7">Let’s start off with what is likely Stratton’s best offering, his curveball. He is able to generate an extreme amount of sweep on this pitch, as the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=18&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=10,d">9 inches of horizontal movement ranks among the highest of all curveballs</a> thrown this year. And at an average of 80.6 mph as well, this is a curveball that is legitimately in Charlie Morton and Corey Kluber territory.</p>
<p id="jlcesJ">In addition to that wipeout breaking ball of his, Stratton possesses a shorter 86 - 87 mph slider as well. The movement profile on this pitch is more average than great, but there is evidence that <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnEcreel/status/1528867540058791936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1528867540058791936%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F3331525%2F2022%2F05%2F26%2Fmlb-hitters-fastball-count-dead-slider%2F">breaking balls thrown above 85 mph tend to produce good results no matter their shape</a>.</p>
<p id="J75pds">Stratton has a very strong ability to spin breaking balls, but his 92 - 93 mph fastball hasn’t succeeded in the same way. It’s gotten hit hard this year and doesn’t have good riding or tailing action. What it does have though is an extremely high spin rate, which is something the Rays sought out in the fastballs of <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenals?year=2022&min=50&type=avg_spin&hand=">Jason Adam and Luke Bard</a> this offseason. So while this pitch may not look great at the moment, maybe the Rays could tinker with his release and/or grip in order to put that good spin to use. Or maybe he could simply throw it less than he is now (42% usage so far in 2022).</p>
<p id="xP8k7T">What’s also appealing about Stratton is his ability to go multiple innings out of the bullpen. He has recorded up to seven outs in an outing this season and has been up to 46 pitches in an outing as recently as last July. This could prove to be very valuable for a team like Tampa Bay who just <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/2022/7/14/23219039/shane-baz-has-elbow-strain-placed-on-15-day-il">recently lost starter Shane Baz for what looks to be the entire 2022 season</a>.</p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2022/7/22/23215495/mlb-trade-targets-stratton-nance-stephensonCole Mitchem2022-07-11T15:15:00-04:002022-07-11T15:15:00-04:00Shawn Armstrong is enhancing his pitch mix
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<img alt="Minnesota Twins v Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mLV-7KH247R6gDMrT1LRi26OK8w=/0x0:5021x3347/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71096192/1339103308.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Rays reliever spoke candidly about where he is as a pitcher, and where he’s (hopefully) headed.</p> <p id="xlifeU">At the trade deadline last year the Rays struck a small in-division deal with the Baltimore Orioles, acquiring reliever Shawn Armstrong for cash considerations.</p>
<p id="5JqMQd">Armstrong threw 16 innings across 11 games down the stretch for the Rays last year. His 4.50 ERA and 5.61 FIP in those innings left more to be desired though, and he was eventually designated for assignment on September 12th, 2021.</p>
<p id="eRJy4G">Although the results weren’t great, the Rays saw enough strength in Shawn’s arm (pun intended) to give him a second go-around in 2022. Tampa Bay signed Armstrong to a minor league deal on May 10th of this year and selected him to the big league roster just three weeks later.</p>
<p id="gnjNDL">Armstrong now possesses a 25.3% strikeout rate and 5.0% walk rate across 18 innings with the Rays in 2022, both of which are above average figures. His 3.50 ERA is also better than average, and matches his FIP and xFIP ERA estimators, and he’s done this while working as many as three innings at a time.</p>
<p id="Tw0qVY">These numbers are an improvement from what he mustered last season in a Rays uniform, but what’s more interesting is how exactly he’s getting there.</p>
<p id="hVMZ6z">Below is a table that compares Armstrong’s pitch usages from his time in Tampa Bay last year to his time with the club this year:</p>
<div id="DxSDw8"><div data-anthem-component="table:11336675"></div></div>
<p id="x4qpQ3">A couple takeaways are immediately noticeable: the four seamer and slider usages are down while sinkers are up for Armstrong. Now the question is “Why?”</p>
<p id="phPSI9">Danny Russell got a chance to ask Armstrong about his new pitch mix during the last Boston series. Regarding the new sinker:</p>
<blockquote><p id="SaxsDZ">I added the sinker this offseason to give hitters a different look and to add a pitch with positive horizontal movement versus everything else that moves glove-side. I’m trying to get less comfortability out of righties who are just able to lean out over the plate. You now have to respect the four seam and the sinker which gets more horizontal separation than everything else I have.</p></blockquote>
<p id="NX4ibY">We can see exactly what Shawn is talking about too when comparing his pitch movement plots from 2021 and 2022:</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2cJ7AX4VmruK7Fy_6_iWQ9h0pJo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23757293/Armstrong_Movement_Comparison.jpg">
<figcaption>Armstrong Pitch Movement Comparison</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="cgY9in">Armstrong has always been a guy with a mostly glove-side movement arsenal, which means that everything is moving away from righties and in to lefties. That is very visible in the 2021 plot from above, where even his four-seam fastball is of the vertical up/down variety, occasionally crossing over into true cut.</p>
<p id="1uLAOF">The 2022 plot shows that brand new orange cluster of pitches which represent his sinkers from this year, and you can see that they are the only pitches with any arm-side movement. While his four-seam, cutter, and slider all moved on basically a single axis (you could draw one line through the center of each clump), the new sinker stands apart.</p>
<p id="manNU9">In his quote above Armstrong also specifically mentioned that he developed this pitch to help with righties, which checks out with the numbers. So far, 36.7% of the pitches he’s thrown to righties this year have been sinkers, while only 21.0 % of the pitches he’s thrown to lefties this year have been sinkers. Right-handed hitters have only <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=SI%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=R&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&team=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=542888&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_ba=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on#results">posted a .306 wOBA and 83.4 average exit velocity against his sinkers this year</a>, both of which are better than average marks. </p>
<p id="ipvGYu">Armstrong discussed further exactly how he developed the new pitch:</p>
<blockquote><p id="U7ovhp">I talked with (Kyle) Snyder a little bit about it last year but we weren’t going to add it in August or September of last year. I also talked with Tyler Zombro this offseason who I was with in Durham last year and he said “You can throw a two-seamer” and I said “No way, every time I throw a two-seamer it cuts.” He sat me down and talked to me about arm angle, hand axis, and the inverted spin data from Trackman. He compared my release point to Clay Holmes and told me “if he can do it, you can do it” and I bought in and it ended up working out. Its one of those pitches that is kind of a safety net but it’s also a good pitch.</p></blockquote>
<p id="LU6AOh">It’s fascinating that <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/03/07/how-coach-z-is-impacting-the-rays-pitching-staff-others/">current Rays farmhand Tyler Zombro</a>, who also now works as a pitching coach for <a href="https://treadathletics.com/">Tread Athletics</a>, essentially helped Armstrong craft an entirely new pitch, and now he is getting big league hitters out with it. </p>
<p id="kpteA9">The addition of this sinker can explain a large chunk of why Armstrong’s fourseam usage is down. He has replaced a lot of those fastballs with a new sinker in an attempt to differ his fastball shapes and keep hitters on their toes. What this new pitch does not explain however is the absence of Armstrong’s slider in 2022.</p>
<p id="ddvoAK">The slider that Armstrong throws <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/2021/11/15/22776370/have-the-rays-been-targeting-a-specific-slider-shape">grades out very well on paper</a>. It gets great movement and is thrown very hard. He used it a fair amount of the time last year, but it’s been almost non-existent this season. Danny asked him why that is:</p>
<blockquote><p id="aQNGK7">Really just trying to get the slider more consistent now in order to pair it off of the cutter. My four-seam and my cutter are good and we know that, that’s the scouting report on me all over the big leagues. So, being able to throw something with less vertical and more horizontal and match that with my other pitches should be a way to get my K’s per nine up. I do want to get my slider percentage up because it is an outlier pitch as well as far as the spin rate and break go. The wOBA and the swing-and-miss is there, but the consistency in the zone has to be there as well. </p></blockquote>
<p id="GwDWH3">Armstrong provides some very detailed insight here, speaking candidly about how he knows he has a great pitch at his disposal, but is struggling to find consistency with it at the moment. This explains why he’s only thrown 10 total sliders across 15 innings with the Rays this year, and you can see that the locations of those sliders have been all over the place so far:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gh2NsPqTfSmhImiUY1MovafM1U0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23757332/Armstrong_Slider_Location_2022.jpg">
<figcaption>Armstrong Slider Locations (2022 with Rays)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="eETdTO">Armstrong also walked through a specific outing in which he was struggling with that slider consistency. The outing that he broke down occurred on July 3rd, when he was called upon to face the heart of Toronto’s order. Here’s how he described it:</p>
<blockquote><p id="689DQw">I got a swinging strike three from Springer (on the slider) the other night, and then I threw the same pitch to Bichette and it didn’t move and he hit it for a single. Honestly, with the vast majority of hitters in the big leagues, that pitch I threw to Bichette would probably be put out of the ballpark. </p></blockquote>
<p id="SPQMbV">Let’s take a look into the sequence that Armstrong references here. First, here’s the <a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/8965ed72-5a5b-4fa0-87e3-75bab877089a.mp4">swinging strike to Springer</a>:</p>
<div id="f9v8aJ">
<div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsporty-clips.mlb.com%2F8965ed72-5a5b-4fa0-87e3-75bab877089a.mp4&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media *;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="bzV4Oz">And now the <a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/3b01ae26-e484-40da-b2fa-123763b3a4f4.mp4">single given up to Bo Bichette</a>:</p>
<div id="AuA6FP">
<div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsporty-clips.mlb.com%2F3b01ae26-e484-40da-b2fa-123763b3a4f4.mp4&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media *;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="JVzvlJ">Armstrong is exactly right. One pitch is extremely well executed, and the other is not. These two pitches do a great job in encapsulating what Armstrong has been struggling with this season. </p>
<p id="v5F8uZ">Hopefully Armstrong is able to find consistency with this pitch, as he now looks like a pitcher with a very diverse arsenal if he can control it. The hard fourseam gives him a put-away weapon at the top of the zone, the cutter and sinker give him two distinct pitches that can get in on the hands of lefties and righties respectively, and his wipeout slider will work against anybody if he can harness it. </p>
<p id="NS3dNH">That’s a pitcher with a very intriguing pitch mix, and keep in mind, Armstrong has already had plenty of success this season even while dealing with these growing pains. It’s clear why the Rays traded for him last year and then stepped in again when he was available in 2022. Armstrong’s arsenal has the potential to be a nightmare for hitters, hopefully he is able to tap into that potential during his time with the Rays.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/7/11/23195926/tampa-bay-rays-reliever-shawn-armstrong-is-enhancing-his-pitch-mixCole Mitchem2022-07-09T17:05:14-04:002022-07-09T17:05:14-04:00Rays acquire C/1B Christian Bethancourt
<figure>
<img alt="Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mqPA9MJtdGiOGUA1V6oHaaKj6-c=/0x0:4170x2780/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71090997/1406296568.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In exchange for prospects Cal Stevenson and Christian Fernandez</p> <p id="0j6dIT">The Rays made one of the first splashes of the trade season this weekend acquiring Christian Bethancourt from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for prospects Cal Stevenson and Christian Fernandez.</p>
<p id="TQLUaZ">Kicking things off with Bethancourt, he’s a 30-year old veteran with a plethora of baseball experience. His first season in professional baseball was all the way back in 2008, and he made his big league debut in 2013 with Atlanta. </p>
<p id="MiNgKy">He was strictly a catcher in his early years, but then found himself playing all over the diamond as his career progressed. Bethancourt played 2B, LF, and RF once he was traded to San Diego in 2016. The Padres even experimented with Bethancourt as a pitcher in 2017! He threw 41.2 innings in AAA that season, but was not effective. </p>
<p id="2QOOPe">In 2019, Bethancourt found himself playing in the KBO where he posted a .712 OPS in 53 games. After this long windy road of position and league changes, he finally was able to break though in MLB again this season with the Oakland Athletics.</p>
<p id="ZoZSJy">On the surface, Christian’s 2022 season looks more average than good. He’s slashing .249/.298/.385 (99 wRC+) with four homeruns in 182 plate appearances this year. Digging under the hood a bit is where things get interesting though. </p>
<p id="JdsYtm">Bethancourt has not actualized much power so far this year, but he has been hitting the ball very hard. His barrel rate, max exit velocity, and average exit velocity are all in the 90th percentile or above this season. He also fares very well in almost every Statcast expected statistic, meaning he is hitting the ball awfully well.</p>
<p id="hIxexz">If you compare <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=asc">Bethancourt’s expected wOBA to his actual wOBA on the season, he has actually been the unluckiest qualified hitter</a> in baseball. This all goes to the say that he is very capable of crushing the ball, and has been doing just that in 2022, but the results just haven’t come to fruition yet.</p>
<p id="w9k0bW">All of this sounds great, and you may be asking yourself “So what’s the catch?” It is true that Bethancourt has some power in his bat, but he does have some flaws too. His walk rate and chase rate on the season are at below average marks, and so is his contact rate. This is a hitter who isn’t all that polished around the strike zone, but when he gets it boy does it fly. Here are a couple of barreled balls from him this season:</p>
<div id="GcwDul">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Christian Bethancourt could be a sneaky good bench bat/backup C & 1B deadline addition. It’s his first year back in MLB since 2017 and he is crushing the ball. 90th+ percentile in Barrel rate, Max EV & avg EV. Rays are second to last in team barrel rate this year <a href="https://t.co/St7kHOsNpP">pic.twitter.com/St7kHOsNpP</a></p>— Rays Metrics (@RaysMetrics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RaysMetrics/status/1545479132145926146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2022</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="SuNhz4">As for the defensive side of things, Bethancourt has played 31 games at first base, 14 games at catcher, and 9 games at DH so far this year.<a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1545833323251073024?s=20&t=tawL8dM9Q7P4-D3B7eewrQ"> The Rays will likely use him all over the field</a> just like Oakland did. </p>
<p id="rp6p8Y">It’s tough to know just how much of an impact he’ll be able to make defensively, as defensive metrics take a while to stabilize and this is Bethancourt’s first season back in MLB since 2017. Statcast’s framing metric has pegged Christian as below average so far this year, but again it has only been 14 games back there for him, so take this with a grain of salt.</p>
<p id="eRZizO">Overall, Bethancourt will likely play a versatile role on this Rays team where he sees time at catcher, first base, DH, and who knows, maybe even left field. He’ll also likely start in a fair share of games against left-handed starters, and also be deployed as a pinch hitter at times where Kevin Cash is looking for an extra base hit off the bench.</p>
<p id="1077hm">It’s also worth noting that the 30-year old Bethancourt has zero minor league options left and has three more years of control remaining after this season. If he plays well down the stretch, he could factor into the catching conversation for next year’s Rays team. <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2022/07/01/rays-jeffrey-springs-misses-start-javy-guerra-phoenix-sanders-added-to-bullpen/?utm_content=%40TBTimes_Sports&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialFlow">Mike Zunino is still multiple weeks away from returning this season</a> and will be a free agent at the end of the year.</p>
<p id="uNKxcH">To land Bethancourt the Rays parted with 25-year old outfielder Cal Stevenson and 22-year old right-hander Christian Fernandez. Stevenson was acquired for Austin Pruitt a few years ago and is enjoying a solid year in AAA. He has posted a .376 OBP (albeit without much power) so far this season and plays above average outfield defense. </p>
<p id="MR9n3r">Fernandez too has had a successful 2022, he’s thrown to a 2.79 ERA and 36.1 K% in 58 innings at Low-A Charelston. Both players are not ranked inside the Rays top 30 prospects at any national outlet, and are also both eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of this season. </p>
<p id="Uf1utd">Overall, this is a small scale move in which the Rays are trading two players who don’t have clear paths to contributing to the big league team in exchange for a versatile hitter with big power skills. </p>
<p id="eEMlXp">It will be very interesting to watch how the ever so creative Rays deploy Bethancourt as the team pushes for a playoff spot down the stretch. </p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/7/9/23201957/rays-acquire-c-1b-christian-bethancourtCole Mitchem2022-06-15T15:54:09-04:002022-06-15T15:54:09-04:00Harold Ramirez flyballs carry farther than expected
<figure>
<img alt="Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rQP7_x4fdpO1L2AdDLZWQm3F2Fc=/0x0:7950x5300/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70980342/1399510695.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whether that’s a good thing remains to be seen.</p> <p id="oTqvQq">In late March the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/2022/3/26/22997437/tampa-bay-rays-acquire-harold-ramirez-from-cubs">Rays struck a deal with the Chicago Cubs</a> to bring 27-year old Harold Ramirez down south to Tampa Bay.</p>
<p id="yfjf6R">Harold has been a fun pick-up for the Rays up to this point, he’s slashing .294/.335/.385 (114 wRC+) across 155 plate appearances, and is the team’s nominee at DH for the All-Star Ballot. </p>
<p id="u4s4KE">You could say his skills as a player fall on the extreme ends of the spectrum, which is evident in his <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/harold-ramirez-623912?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">percentile sliders on his Baseball Savant page</a>. His exit velocity and contact metrics look awesome! His plate discipline and defensive value on the other hand, not so much. His .343 xBA is the best in baseball! His chase rate among the worst.</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U31Fcu7BC9xy63qrmVM4XsxjJLs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23630980/image__9_.png">
<figcaption>Baseball Savant | June 15, 2022</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="jGD3yN">Beyond the obvious ups and downs of Harold Ramirez’s profile, there is something else going on under the hood here, and it has to do with the specific way that the ball comes off of his bat. </p>
<h3 id="5c5H1j"><strong>Introducing the concept of batted ball spin</strong></h3>
<p id="8wjytX">When thinking about how pitches are measured in the modern game, metrics such as velocity, spin rate, movement, and approach angles are all brought up often. The same can be said for batted balls. Think exit velocity, launch angle, or distance. One area that hasn’t garnered much attention (yet) in the public sphere, however, is the spin characteristics of a batted ball. While spin rate and spin axis data for thrown pitches is public and available, the same is not true for batted balls.</p>
<p id="GjmOW0">There is likely a world of research to be done on truly how important batted ball spin is and whether or not a hitter can control or change their tendencies. Over at FanGraphs, <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-fun-with-batted-ball-spin-data/">writer Justin Choi has begun to dig into this concept</a> using private data from last year’s college baseball season (he highlights talented Rays prospect Kyle Manzardo in this piece too). In the article Choi states, “It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what combination of spin type and amount maximizes results;” however, he does show evidence that batted balls with more backspin do outperform their expected distances. </p>
<p id="6GxG9U">In support of this concept, <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F3318648%2F2022%2F05%2F18%2Fgiants-extend-a-streak-vs-rockies-and-tommy-la-stella-hit-a-homer-464-feet%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.draysbay.com%2F2022%2F6%2F15%2F23167429%2Fharold-ramirez-flyballs-carry-farther-than-expected" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic also recently wrote a piece</a> with quotes from San Francisco Giants players on how they believe backspin creates more distance on flyballs.</p>
<p id="VXi5TZ">This is exactly where Harold Ramirez comes into play, and we can use a few batted ball examples of his to illustrate it. Take a look at this <a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/5c002c51-5f2b-49cd-9708-4e04b7207f9f.mp4">flyout of his back on June 5th</a> against the Chicago White Sox:</p>
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<div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsporty-clips.mlb.com%2F5c002c51-5f2b-49cd-9708-4e04b7207f9f.mp4&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media *;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="OszdXM">While this may look like a very typical flyball, the batted ball metrics paint a much more interesting picture. This specific ball was hit at an 84.5 mph exit velocity, 24 degree launch angle, and traveled 305 feet per Statcast. Using these values we can search for other similar batted balls and compare their respective distances to the 305 feet that Harold was able to produce here.</p>
<p id="IWeU3k"><em>One important side note here is that batted balls are affected by more factors than exit velocity and launch angle. Wind, temperature, and humidity are examples of how the stadium’s location and time of year can play a big role in all of this. Luckily for us Rays fans, Tropicana Field is a domed stadium and all home games are played at a balmy 72 degrees.</em></p>
<p id="k2VJ1l">In order to find the most similar batted balls to Harold’s flyout above, this search was limited only to balls hit in Tropicana field. Another factor that needed to be neutralized during this search is the spray angle that the ball is hit at which can affect the sidespin (which creates hook or fade) of the baseball. So, this search was also limited to balls hit to the batter’s pull side, just like Harold’s was. </p>
<p id="ZLimZO">Alas, the two most similar batted balls in 2022 to the Ramirez flyout above were:</p>
<ul>
<li id="CJXE7w">Elvis Andrus double on 4/13: 83.8 mph exit velocity, 25 degree launch angle</li>
<li id="wYObnW">Luis Arraez single on 4/30: 83.4 mph exit velocity, 23 degree launch angle</li>
</ul>
<p id="oPQfeR">As you can see, these balls were hit at strikingly similar exit velocities and launch angles in comparison to Harold’s, were hit to the batter’s pull side, and were also hit in games played at Tropicana field. Now, given all of the similarities, wouldn’t you think these baseballs would fly at awfully similar distances?</p>
<p id="ExKVtO">This is where it gets interesting. Elvis Andrus’ double only traveled 283 feet, 22 feet shorter than the Ramirez flyball, and Luis Arraez’s single only traveled 244 feet, a whopping 61 feet shy. Here are the clips of those two batted balls, if you’re interested. <a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/978963f5-3159-4124-9dcc-4611eb8e31c3.mp4">The Andrus double</a>:</p>
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<div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsporty-clips.mlb.com%2F978963f5-3159-4124-9dcc-4611eb8e31c3.mp4&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media *;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="7voQef"><a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/8610c0ca-dbf4-4d32-adb1-81ec595ed650.mp4">The Arraez single</a>:</p>
<div id="HdqnHF">
<div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsporty-clips.mlb.com%2F8610c0ca-dbf4-4d32-adb1-81ec595ed650.mp4&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media *;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="QUyKDk">The difference in distances between these batted balls is drastic, and the culprit could be batted ball spin. In the Arraez clip, you can see how much topspin that ball has as it takes a sharp downward turn towards the outfield turf. Now go watch the Ramirez flyball again and observe just how much more carry it gets than the Arraez hit, which is almost surely due to the much greater backspin on that baseball.</p>
<p id="7T952b">To illustrate this point further, I expanded the search to include batted balls that were hit outside of Tropicana field as well. Sure enough, that <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=Pull%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=api_h_launch_angle&metric_1_gt=23&metric_1_lt=24&metric_2=api_h_launch_speed&metric_2_gt=82&metric_2_lt=86&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=bbdist&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_stats_bbdist=on#results">Ramirez flyball flew further than any of the other 22 similar batted balls did this season</a>. </p>
<p id="LcjEpk">Now, this is simply just one batted ball for Ramirez, so, what if he got lucky and happened to induce some unusual backspin on this particular hit? </p>
<p id="u6Hg9R">To test this, I built a simple linear regression model, which takes exit velocity, launch angle, and spray angle and predicts an expected distance based on these three factors. I also only included data from 2022 (to ensure that only this season’s baseball is used) and from Tropicana field (to ensure that the environmental elements are all constant) in an attempt to provide the most accurate results possible.</p>
<p id="TeBPRa">Then, I took each of Ramirez’s flyballs (launch angles between 15 and 30 degrees, exit velocities above 80 mph) at Tropicana field this season and was able to run this regression model to come up with an expected distance for all of those flyballs. On the plot below you will see each of those expected distances plotted against the actual distances that the batted balls traveled:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Yw2u7yTjPyaN9b2rwakZh2yY6L8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23631169/Harold_Ramirez_BBE_Distances_v2.jpg">
<figcaption>Harold Ramirez expected vs actual distance on flyballs in 2022 (Tropicana Field only)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="shVdyN">The majority of Ramirez’s fly balls travel further than they are expected to based on their exit velocity, launch angle, and spray angle. In fact, only two of the nine batted balls shown above landed shorter than their expected distance. (Batted ball number 6 on this plot is the example flyout from earlier in this piece.)</p>
<p id="KTLA1d">It’s still early in the season, but it is starting to look like Harold Ramirez has a skill of generating an above average amount of backspin on his flyballs and line drives, thus leading to more carry. </p>
<h3 id="o0HylQ"><strong>Is this extra distance a good thing?</strong></h3>
<p id="OdOTy1">At first, you may think of course this is good, the more distance you can get the better. However, what about a hitter like Harold Ramirez, who hits a ton of balls at lower launch angles? What if this extra added distance is actually turning some of his low line drives into outs because they aren’t dropping in front of outfielders? </p>
<p id="eG6lYU">Take this<a href="https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/2e365fe7-cf1c-456d-888c-da8f34578c74.mp4"> lineout of his</a> as an example:</p>
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<div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsporty-clips.mlb.com%2F2e365fe7-cf1c-456d-888c-da8f34578c74.mp4&key=9ef4a209439e42bc59783ba959d50197" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media *;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="fJslvE">Would most other big league hitters have seen this ball off their bat drop in for a hit? It’s certainly possible, and there’s actually some evidence that Harold Ramirez has been hurt by this exact concept. </p>
<p id="gN0xrB">Despite his strong start to the year, Ramirez is one of the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=7&sortDir=desc">largest underperformers in both batting average and overall production (wOBA)</a> in baseball so far this season. Maybe that has to do with the great backspin that he generates, and how his batted balls end up hanging and finding outfielder gloves more often than most hitters experience.</p>
<p id="oAdnWp">When Ramirez was first acquired, one of the first takes circulating around the Rays internet world was “Wow this guy hits the ball really hard, he should probably hit some more flyballs.” And while that basic level of analysis is valid and still stands true today, it’s possible that <em>another </em>reason why he should lift the ball more lies in his batted ball spin tendencies. </p>
<p id="DA5fTn">Instead of having his line drives and flares land in the mitts of outfielders so much, maybe more flyballs would allow his strong back-spinning shots to create extra base hits falling over the heads of the fielders.</p>
<p id="MtTmTS">All of this is to say that hitting is complex and batted ball spin is a whole new can of worms that has barely been cracked open. </p>
<p id="DNipWG">Without the hard data, there aren’t a ton of conclusions that can be drawn from this, but comparing actual versus expected distances is an interesting proxy to use. If the data ever does become public, I’d bet that Harold Ramirez turns up as a guy who generates strong backspin in comparison to the rest of the league’s hitters.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/6/15/23167429/harold-ramirez-flyballs-carry-farther-than-expectedCole Mitchem2022-05-24T09:00:00-04:002022-05-24T09:00:00-04:00Isaac Paredes has a new approach in Tampa Bay
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<img alt="MLB: Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4ayWq5y1KtjgNOHRCXoEC3sbJp4=/62x0:3923x2574/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70904116/usa_today_18295925.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>And so far it is certainly working</p> <p id="skM5WN">Just three days before Major League Baseball’s 2022 opening day the Rays went out and made a substantial roster move: Austin Meadows was traded to the Detroit Tigers.</p>
<p id="FMXgZY">While the move had several different roster implications, it seemed like getting 23-year old infielder Isaac Paredes in return was a big reason why the Rays opted to pull the trigger. He made his presence known this past week as <a href="https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/video/isaac-paredes-two-homer-game?t=home-runs">he blasted two 400+ foot homers against his former club</a>.</p>
<p id="oMC4ku">When players are traded to the Rays, we often see internet takes such as “What are they going to unlock with this guy?” And while it doesn’t always work out that way, it is interesting to monitor player trends after they settle in with new teams. It’s only been a couple of weeks so far for Paredes, but there are already signs of change in some of his approach metrics. Time for some digging in.</p>
<p id="Rx8SB4">First off, it’s important to understand the type of hitter that Isaac has been in the past. Paredes has a great hitting track record in the minor leagues. He’s a career minor league .271/.361/.427 (125 wRC+) batter despite almost always being very young for his level. He also owns a career 10.6 BB% and a 13.4 K% in the minors, both of which are very strong figures.</p>
<p id="84bSGL">Paredes also has amassed over 2,200 career plater appearances in the minors, which provides reliability to the great plate discipline and contact skills he has shown. These <a href="https://twitter.com/RaysMetrics/status/1527069111582441473?s=20&t=WIMBCwSWLQ7YFDMi5mzFbA">tendencies have shown up during his time in the big leagues</a> as well. In other words, these two skills of his are legit.</p>
<p id="KLIVOo">Impacting the baseball is where Paredes has fallen short though, as he’s often posted below average slugging percentages and isolated power figures throughout his career. Many advanced Statcast metrics such as <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb">average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and maximum exit velocity</a> also point to Paredes being below average in the power department, but again his big league career is still very young.</p>
<p id="xh8fqc">To bring it all together, Paredes does a few things extremely well (plate discipline and contact) while other skills of his lag behind (power metrics). While you could argue that maybe he doesn’t need to change a thing, and that his strengths were and are good enough for him to be a productive big league hitter right now, it looks like Paredes is indeed making some adjustments to try tap into more power.</p>
<p id="ZlXcLD">The first major difference for Paredes in 2022 has been the direction in which he’s hit the ball. Isaac is pulling the ball much more often with the Rays. In the past, Paredes has usually been one to use the whole field, and that is reflected in high opposite field percentages throughout his minor league career.</p>
<p id="G12TWD">This year however, Paredes has pulled 59.3% of his batted balls in the major leagues, which is significantly higher than the 46.0 pull% that he posted across 2020 and 2021. Below is a rolling graph to break this down to a game-by-game level, via FanGraphs:</p>
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<p id="RXKxxn">This suggests that Paredes is making a conscious effort to pull the ball more often, as he’s gone from below to now above the league average pull rate of about 47%.</p>
<p id="grC0n2">This trend is also apparent in his time with the Rays AAA affiliate. He has pulled 57% of his batted balls in Durham too, which is something he hasn’t done in the minors since 2018. Because of this shift in approach, he’s already hit 16 extra base hits in 147 plate appearances across both MLB and AAA this year.</p>
<p id="vvz103">Now, pulling the ball isn’t everything when it comes to hitting for power, you do also have to hit the ball in the air in order to rack up those extra base hits. Paredes is lifting the ball more in 2022 too. His fly ball rate is 55.6% in MLB this year, which is way up from his 36.7% mark across 2020 and 2021. Again, his MLB sample size is very small so far this year, but we’re seeing a similar trend in AAA for him too, where his flyball rate is up over 9% higher than where it was in AAA last year.</p>
<p id="MmYwPx">We can also pair these two trends and see that he’s already pulled 5 flyballs this year in the big leagues (which includes his 3 homeruns), that matches the total that he accumulated over his first two years in Detroit (around six times as many plate appearances as he has this year).</p>
<p id="ly9Zd0">The upshot: Paredes is actively trying to do damage on more pitches than he used to. His previous approach seemed geared toward slapping grounders and liners up the middle and the other way, and now it appears as if he has a different mindset at the plate.</p>
<p id="BCUbL1">We can see evidence of this in his swing tendencies too. While Paredes’ overall swing rate hasn’t changed much, he is targeting different pitches to swing at. Per Baseball Savant, Paredes has swung at <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=foul%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%5C.%5C.no%5C.%5C.out%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%5C.%5C.score%7Cpitchout%5C.%5C.hit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%5C.%5C.score%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&hfZ=1%7C2%7C3%7C4%7C5%7C6%7C&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup[]=670623&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_zones=on#results">73.8% of the pitches that he’s seen in the upper two thirds</a> of the strike zone this season. That mark is way up from his <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=foul%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%5C.%5C.no%5C.%5C.out%7Chit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%5C.%5C.score%7Cpitchout%5C.%5C.hit%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.play%5C.%5C.score%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&hfZ=1%7C2%7C3%7C4%7C5%7C6%7C&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup[]=670623&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_zones=on#results">58.2% swing rate on those same pitches from his days in Detroit</a>. </p>
<p id="B5kshL">This means that Paredes is swinging at pitches that result in flyballs (and ultimately extra base hits) more often than he ever has in MLB. To pull up an example of this, let’s go back to his first homerun in last Wednesday’s game against Detroit. Not only did Paredes take an aggressive swing on the pitch that resulted in the homerun, but he took multiple rips during that at-bat looking to do damage. </p>
<p id="7s4y9I">The first pitch of the at-bat was a curveball that missed down-and-in, Ball 1. The next pitch was an up-and-in fastball that Paredes was not going to let sneak by:</p>
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<p id="yZxDbm">An aggressive hack for Isaac but he was a bit out in front on it, 1-1 count now. Both of the next two pitches were secondary offerings that missed out of the zone. On the 3-1 count Garcia came back into the zone with another fastball, and again Paredes was looking to drive a pitch up and out over the plate:</p>
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<p id="aie9z8">Just missed it again. This set up the 3-2 pitch which was another fastball by Garcia which missed badly over the heart of the plate, and Paredes with that same aggressive approach was finally able to barrel it:</p>
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<p id="AmxQL0">This sequence of pitches encapsulates the new Paredes we have seen in a Tampa Bay uniform. He is swinging at pitches that give him a good opportunity to drive the ball. In previous years, Paredes may have let one or two of those fastballs go by, or instead may have been looking to slap something the other way. This is a new man on a new power mission.</p>
<p id="ybJlcS">What is exciting for Paredes is that he hasn’t yet sacrificed any contact or plate discipline ability while trying to add power. He is still striking out at a sub-20% clip in both MLB and AAA, just as he almost always has. </p>
<p id="uFQliF">The walks haven’t translated for him yet in MLB this year, but his chase rate is still sitting at a well above average mark, which bodes well for his future walk rate. His walks in AAA this year (11.5%) are also in line with his career norms, which is just another reason why he is likely to carry that skill to MLB this year.</p>
<p id="QKCvho">To summarize, the early returns on Paredes’ new attack plan look quite strong, and there are all kinds of interesting metrics under the hood that serve as evidence. Now, there is of course a chance that Paredes takes this new pull-happy, flyball-heavy approach too far and actually hurts his overall production because of it. Up to this point though, there haven’t been any signs of that happening. </p>
<p id="l95qxy">What does seem to be happening is a young hitter adjusting his approach to enhance his profile while also preserving the very good skills that are already in his toolbox. Let’s hope it continues.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2022/5/24/23137830/isaac-paredes-has-a-new-approach-in-tampa-bayCole Mitchem