DRaysBay: All Posts by Preet PatelA Tampa Bay Rays Blog: Ball on a Budgethttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48753/drb-logo-fv.png2013-04-09T13:00:13-04:00https://www.draysbay.com/authors/preet-patel/rss2013-04-09T13:00:13-04:002013-04-09T13:00:13-04:00Rays Roundtable: The Bold Prediction Edition
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<figcaption>Al Messerschmidt</figcaption>
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<p>In this edition of the Rays Roundtable, the staff writers all share their "bold" predictions for the season!</p> <p>Sometimes the bold predictions are the most fun. Even if they're the least likely to come true, and often based more on emotion than reason, when they do come to fruition, the vindication is unmatched. In this edition, the D<a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a>Bay staff shares our "bold" predictions for the season.</p>
<p><b>Preet: </b>Although I'm tempted to make my bold prediction be that Longoria actually manages to avoid the DL for a season, I'm going to have to go with a tremendous offensive upsurge from <span>Desmond Jennings</span>. In particular, an on-base percentage above .350.</p>
<p><b>Steve S.</b>: My bold prediction is that <span>Alex Cobb</span> will step into the gap left by <span>James Shields</span> and become the <span class="il">Rays</span> next underrated change-up stud. I'm hoping for an Earned Run Average below four from him, and four Wins Above Replacement. He's going into his age 25 season, so in other words, I'm looking for him to approximate Shields' age-25 season.</p>
<p><b>Michael</b>: My bold prediction is that <span>Matt Moore</span> and <span>David Price</span> will combine for over ten Wins Above Replacement, with both strong candidates (but neither a winner) for the Cy Young award. David Price will maintain an edge in Innings Pitched, but Moore will surpass him in quality, posting a lower Earned Run Average/Fielding Independent Pitching measures. <span class="il">Rays</span> fans will be left wondering how amazing a Price and Moore duo at the front of the rotation for a couple of more years could have looked after Price is shipped out next off-season for prospects.</p>
<p><b>Stephanie</b>: My bold prediction is a record of 91-71. I think that this is the last year that we will see David Price in a <span class="il">Rays</span> uniform and he will have another 20 win season and get the Cy Young again. I also see this as being a breakout year for Alex Cobb with him earning 15 wins.</p>
<p><b>Steve K.</b>: Desmond Jennings will steal over 50 bases in 2013 and score over 100 runs.</p>
<p><b>Ian</b>: No starters will get traded this year, and all of our "sixth" starters (Niemann, Fausto, Archer, Odorizzi) will get playing time (4+ starts).</p>
<p><b>Jonathan</b>: My bold prediction is that Matt Moore not only develops into a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter, but that he is worth at least six Wins Above Replacement, and wins the American League Cy Young Award.</p>
<p><b>Heath</b>: <span>Cole Figueroa</span> will play himself into the majors and not look back.</p>
<p><b>Daniel</b>: <span>Jeremy Hellickson</span> will continue to defy the baseball gods with an outrageously low Earned Run Average, despite a 4.40 Fielding Independent Pitching Average. He will quickly step into the role left behind by James Shields as the <span class="il">Rays</span> workhorse.</p>
<div>Pumping his fastball more this season, Hellickson's four-seamer will average a tick higher at 93 miles per hour, and will develop into a decent outpitch. Hellboy will finish the season with twelve complete games, one of those coming in the playoffs against the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Tigers</a>.</div>
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<b>Allie</b>: Price, Cobb, and Hellickson will each get 10+ wins, with each member of the rotation (be it the current five or anyone added in later on) having a complete game. Price will continue to dominate and be a Cy Young contender, Cobb will fill the workhorse role left vacant by Shields, and all starters will post an Earned Run Average below four.</div>
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<b>Scott</b>: My bold prediction is that the organization will make a trade to improve the roster on or just before the trade deadline. For a consistently competitive team, the <span class="il">Rays</span> have hardly made an effort to do so in recent years, but this will be the year they use their minor league depth to give the team a boost for the stretch run. A number of non-contending teams have first basemen set to become free agents, so if the <span class="il">Rays</span> decide they can do better than <span>James Loney</span> or <span>Luke Scott</span>, that could be an area to target.</div>
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<b>Yossi</b>: My prediction is that the <span class="il">Rays</span> will win the AL East.
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<div>I believe that the pitching can be at least close to as great as it was in 2012, the offense won't regress (assuming that they won't have to deal with so many injuries this season), and the defense will definitely be better. I also think that <span>Wil Myers's</span> contributions in the second half of the season will be the difference between a Wild Card spot and a division title for the <span class="il">Rays</span>.</div>
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<b>Robbie</b>: I'll say that Jeremy Hellickson has a huge season that even sabermetricians can agree is good, going over 200 Innings and getting his K/9 up to 7.0, his BB/9 down to 2.8, and his HR/9 to 0.9 as his Earned Run Average comes in at 2.98, leading to several Cy Young votes. The key will be his curveball, which showed flashes as his third pitch at the end of last season.</div>
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<div>Other than that, I'll predict that <span>Brandon Guyer</span>, finally healthy, breaks into the big leagues for his first extended stretch and plays well enough that he begins taking away starts from <span>Matt Joyce</span> and <span>Kelly Johnson</span> and allows the <span class="il">Rays</span> to keep Wil Myers in the minors until July.</div>
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<b>Gareth</b>: <span>Evan Longoria</span> will avoid significant DL time this season and hit 40 home runs and drive in 110+. For his efforts the <span class="il">Rays</span> will win the AL East and Longo will receive MVP votes. Meanwhile, Matt Moore will make significant strides, but the real breakout pitcher will be Alex Cobb, who takes Shields's workhorse innings eater role, accumulating 200 IP. BOOJ IT!</div>
https://www.draysbay.com/2013/4/9/4203386/rays-roundtable-the-bold-prediction-editionPreet Patel2012-11-16T11:01:03-05:002012-11-16T11:01:03-05:00Rays Roundtable: Lower Minor League Sleepers
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<img alt="Matt Moore once used to be just a sleeper prospect in the lower minors" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qUqcJC4EFwGz5KUEpkZGWk5uwU0=/0x310:4000x2977/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/3342167/153058867.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Matt Moore once used to be just a sleeper prospect in the lower minors | David Banks</figcaption>
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<p>In this edition of the Rays Roundtable, we look at the staff's picks for sleepers in the lower minor leagues (below AA)</p> <p>Picking sleepers in the minor leagues is obviously an inherently subjective process. It's not a science, but an art. As we all know, a far greater number of prospects flame out than achieve even modest success in the major leagues, especially at the lower levels, where projecting performance is notoriously hard. If you pick a lower minor league prospect, he will, without a doubt, be more likely to fail than be a star. Still, by looking at the whole staff's conclusions, we can take note of a few names to follow closely the next few years.</p>
<p><b>Preet</b>: My pick is Drew Vettleson. Vettleson's numbers this year weren't the most inspiring (.275/.340/.432, 117 wRC+) but they weren't bad either. In his first year in full season ball, he put up an across the board season, slightly above average in literally every facet of the game, but exceptional in none. He's still very young though, and there's a pretty good chance he starts mashing the ball next season, as his swing still looks beautiful.</p>
<p><b>Michael</b>: My favorite breakout/sleeper prospect is Josh Sale. This year, Sale showed glimpses of his power but was unable to maintain a strong performance throughout the entire year. With the ability to absolutely launch a ball (I saw him hit a home run to dead center on Milb.TV that went well beyond the wall) and an idea of the strike zone, Sale has the raw potential to be a middle of the order bat. Swing mechanics and the mental side of hitting are apparently giving him some issues, so he is not a prospect without significant risk. The Florida State League will try to contain his power this year, so Josh Sale will have to make noticeable strides to increase his prospect stock.</p>
<p><b>Ian</b>: I'm on the Sale boat, too.</p>
<p><b>Jason</b>: Jacob Partridge - love that he's in the family.</p>
<p><b>Daniel</b>: Jake Hager. Given the linear depth of quality short stops in the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> system, the line is <span>Tim Beckham</span> at AAA, <span>Hak-Ju Lee</span> at AA, and Hager at A. This year is his opportunity to establish himself as a quality SS of the future, and to give the Rays confidence in his ability. Zobrist is capable of holding down SS, and the time his contract expires would be when Hager should arrive at the majors. If his talent becomes trustworthy, the Rays will be able to spend their resources elsewhere and give him the star role. If not, the Rays need to start planning now around HJL. Can the front office trust Hager? This is his chance to shine, and I think he will.</p>
<p><b>Steve K.</b>: I like Lenny Linsky to be a breakout candidate. I thought he'd be a quick flyer up through the Rays system but he was slowed by injury. I believe his stock is quite depressed to a point that not much will be expected of him but as long as he's healthy and his ball has some bite to it he'll make tremendous strides in 2013.</p>
<p><b>Kevin</b>: Jesse Hahn: He won't pass Taylor Guerrieri on prospect lists but he's going to work his way into the top 10 with a big year at Bowling Green. He was great last year with Hudson Valley and should be completely recovered from his Tommy John surgery for 2013.</p>
<p><b>Scott</b>: I'll go with Andrew Toles. He didn't end the 2012 season with Princeton very well, but overall the 3rd round pick had no problem transitioning to wood bats in professional baseball. He hit seven home runs in 51 games with the P-Rays to finish second on the team behind Brandon Martin, a player I considered writing about here. At 5'10 and 185 pounds, he doesn't have the size that lends itself to hitting for power, but he is able to drive the ball with authority. He's a tremendous athlete that can steal bases and play a really good center field. He's a bit of an aggressive swinger at the plate, but even though his walk rate is a bit low, he doesn't strike out much either. He'll be 21 years old for most of 2013 and should be ready for Bowling Green.</p>
<p><i>Do you have a sleeper pick from the lower half of our minors? Now's your chance to make it known in the comments for bragging rights down the road!</i></p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/11/16/3651546/rays-roundtable-lower-minor-league-sleepersPreet Patel2012-11-02T13:00:55-04:002012-11-02T13:00:55-04:00Rays Roundtable: Starting Pitching Surplus, Pt. 2
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<figcaption>J. Meric</figcaption>
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<p>In this edition of the Rays Roundtable, the staff looks at the Rays' starting pitching surplus, and how Andrew Friedman may reallocate it</p> <p><b>Michael Valancius:</b></p>
<p>I believe that by the end of the off season, the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> rotation will be as follows: Price, Moore, Hellickson, Cobb, and Niemann.</p>
<p>While Shields is a very important part of the rotation and replacing his innings will be an issue, his stock is high and it is hard to see a scenario in which the Rays decide to keep him. The only one I can really fathom is if we decide to move Price (or maybe Hellickson) instead.</p>
<p>It just does not seem likely that the Rays will move Price. Any asking price for him would have to be other-worldly, and the only two teams that really make sense are the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rangers</a> and the <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Royals</a>. However, trading Price is an option theRays should and undoubtedly will look into. His price is escalating and the Rays should be able to nab some elite prospects and/or a young affordable bat. Any reasonable offer would be tempting from the Rays standpoint.</p>
<p>Moore, Cobb, and Archer are all destined to return to the Rays. Archer, with an option remaining provides useful depth at AAA for when Niemann hits the disabled list. Improvements are expected from both Cobb and Moore.</p>
<p>The Rays, if they feel he is not worthy of a roster spot, could move Niemann. However, with his recent injuries, his stock is at an all-time low. It is a pity Niemann can't stay healthy, because he has developed into a strong starting pitcher when on the mound. A team needing pitching would be wise to see if they could pry Niemann away from the Rays for minimal return.</p>
<p>As far as the whole Davis fiasco goes, I am not sure of what to make of it. I truly believe he can be a competent 3/4 starter, assuming his stuff holds up in the rotation. The addition of the cutter gives him a third weapon, behind his fastball and curve. I am not sure of the point behind Friedman's comments when he stated: "it's a hard thing to go back and ask him to do it again being that his heart is in the rotation." I just cannot envision a likely scenario in which Davis could rejoin the rotation. If another team places considerable value in him, he could be traded. If not, a return to the bullpen would not be a bad situation.</p>
<p><b>Daniel Russell: </b></p>
<p><b></b>The price tag on <span>David Price</span> is an influencing factor. If arbitration gives him more than a 200% salary increase (~$9M) then Price's days may be numbered - however, I believe that won't be the case.</p>
<p>As others have pointed out, the likely outcome for Archer is serving as depth at AAA, with Niemann slotted as the fifth pitcher. The likely midsession injury to any pitcher - but especially The Big NyQuil - will bring Archer into the fold.</p>
<p>If any pitcher's future is certain, it is Moore's and Davis's, with Moore being (team friendly contract) in the rotation and Davis in the bullpen to keep his velocity up. The only reason to trade Davis would be his contract. He is owed $2.8/$4.8 the next two years, with options for $7/$8/$10 the next three years. There is no need to move him while his contract is still under three mil.</p>
<p>By that logic, we are left with Hellickson and Shields. Hell Boy has been playing with fire, beating his FIP with an incredibly low ERA despite questionable peripherals, and it is for these reasons Bryan Grosnick of SBN Tampa Bay and Beyond The Boxscore says <a href="http://tampabay.sbnation.com/2012/10/9/3473906/magic-jeremy-hellickson-tampa-bay-rays-2012-ERA-FIP">Hellickson is the best choice. </a>So the most important question to me is whether Hellickson is riding on luck or talent? If it's the former, we should flip Hellickson like he's <span>Scott Kazmir</span> pronto. Perhaps it is the Rays defense that has held his BABIP over the last three years to .267/.233/.261 and his Left on Base % to .800/.820/.827, but I'm afraid Hellickson is a ticking time bomb.</p>
<p>Shields is our war horse. I firmly believe the Rays will be in contention yet again next year, so trading a 5.0 WAR pitcher like Shields bothers me greatly. He's priced at $9/$12 over the next two seasons, so his value may never be higher than it is now. Do the Rays have the money to shell out for Shields and Price? Has Shields hit his ceiling in potential? It is here I say in Friedman we trust. If a team like the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cardinals</a> wants to throw <span>Matt Carpenter</span> our way, how could the Rays say no? I've narrowed it down to Shields and Hellickson. The rest is on the market to decide.</p>
<p><b>Ian Malinowski:</b></p>
<p><b></b>We're trying to win the World Series, not the service time championship, the WAR/$ trophy, or any other hallowed but secondary award. With that in mind, I think there are two types of scarcity a GM must work against. Of course there's scarcity of money, which some say could force the Rays to trade David Price or <span>James Shields</span>, but there's also scarcity of dependably 4+ WAR pitchers, or any type of 4+ WAR player. There are just not that many truly excellent players in the world, and it's that scarcity that creates some semblance of parity in a capless league.</p>
<p>Now in theory, Andrew Friedman should be able to trade for equal value, but it's not quite that simple. Top players with relatively low risk are the type of piece that teams build around, not trade away, and teams usually overvalue their own studs (with good reason, as far as the rooting fan is concerned). If the equal value is made up of prospects, that's trading low risk value for high risk value, and might mean punting the season. The window is too good right now to do that. This is a long way of saying I expect both Shields and Price to be back next year.</p>
<p>Now let's move on to our "depth."</p>
<p><span>Matt Moore</span> has a team friendly contact and the potential to become the best pitcher in baseball. He's not going anywhere.</p>
<p><span>Jeremy Hellickson</span> is either overrated or underrated, depending on who you ask. Its my opinion that he's both skillful and lucky, with plenty of room to grow that will improve his peripherals. He could become a true top pitcher, rather than a flashpoint for debate. That being said, as has been noted by others, Hellickson appears unlikely to sign an extension, and the fact that there is room for variation in how teams value him makes him more likely to be traded. If AF believes a I do, though, that Helly hasn't yet unlocked his potential, the Rays will not sell low.</p>
<p><span>Jeff Niemann</span> is an interesting case. Long considered an innings eater who doesn't eat innings, he's showed flashes recently of being much more than that. Unfortunately, a freak injury derailed his season before he reached a large enough sample to establish a mid-3 SIERA as his new level of play. If the breakout was real, trading now would be selling low.</p>
<p>I love <span>Chris Archer</span> as much as the next guy. I love his slider. I love his fastball. I love his rookie season. I love that he seems like a thinker. What I don't love is the fact that he put up better strikeout and walk numbers in the pros than he did at AAA. That's not supposed to happen, and yes, I know that top prospects can improve as they age, regardless of level. But it's a major red flag. We should be happy to have Archer. We should not expect him to sustain that type MLB level of performance over a full season.</p>
<p><span>Alex Cobb</span> is great as a mid-rotation arm. He pounds the zone with his three pitches, and he's put up a large enough track record of success that his poor fastball no longer worries me. What his fastball does do, though, is make him unsexy as trade bait. The Rays will pitch him, and do so happily, but I very much doubt he'd bring back the type of value that would make him worth trading.</p>
<p>Lastly, there's Wade Davis. He has a fantastic contract for a starting pitcher, and an acceptable contract for a bullpen ace. He became said bullpen ace this past year, but I'm not buying that he should be moved back into the rotation. Any sentence that starts "If he can maintain his stuff as a starter . . ." is wishful thinking. Stuff markedly and measureable improves when someone only has to throw one or two innings. The cutter may be new and may travel, but the fastball velocity won't. If another team thinks Davis can be an above average starter, let them trade for him, but if the Rays move him back into the rotation, it's not a World Series play.</p>
<p>So where does that leave the Rays? Two studs who I think will be back next year (Price and Shields), one young pitcher brimming with potential who will definitely be back (Moore). One very good young pitcher who probably can't be traded for fair value (Cobb), and one very good young pitcher who might be tradeable above his value (Hellickson). If any of them are traded, that leaves our depth as a promising rookie with control problems that we shouldn't believe have just disappeared (Archer), and one veteran in the bullpen that we shouldn't believe can magically transition back into a better starter than he's been before (Davis). Yes, our rotation is a position of strength, but a trade here, an injury there, a few very possible struggles, and it can become an area of weakness. That's why I wouldn't be at all surprised to have every single one of the Tampa Bay starting pitchers back next season.</p>
<p><i>Do you see another potential resolution to the (good) problem we always seem to have? If so, please share it in the comments!</i></p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/11/2/3589848/rays-roundtable-the-starting-pitching-surplus-pt-2Preet Patel2012-11-02T10:00:05-04:002012-11-02T10:00:05-04:00Rays Roundtable: Starting Pitching Surplus, Pt. 1
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>In this edition of the Rays Roundtable, the staff looks at the Rays' starting pitching surplus, and how Andrew Friedman may reallocate it</p> <p>It's no secret that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> find themselves yet again with an abundance of starting pitching. As of now, all five of the Rays' primary starting pitchers from 2012 (Shields, Price, Moore, Hellickson, and Cobb) are returning, with many familiar names following. <span>Jeff Niemann</span> is expected to be healthy at the start of 2013. <span>Chris Archer</span> appears to be more or less ready for the major leagues, although he isn't quite banging on the door like Moore, Hellickson, and Davis were one, two, and three off-seasons ago respectively. <span>Wade Davis</span> is emerging from a return to dominance in the bullpen, but could find himself in the rotation again if need be. Between all of these names, the Rays have eight capable starting pitchers available.</p>
<p>This is not to say, however, that they have three extra starting pitchers that need to be reallocated. In all likelihood, Wade Davis will remain in the bullpen for another season, given his relative ineffectiveness as a starter in 2011. Chris Archer could easily be kept in AAA to start 2013, at least; in addition to his having an option and this allowing longer cost control, his pitching control also needs work, as last year in AAA he walked nearly a batter every other inning. Although it improved down the stretch, it's not clear how sustainable this improvement may be.</p>
<p>This leaves the Rays effectively with six starting pitchers that can't be reasonably "stashed" elsewhere in the organization. One could make the case that the Rays could keep all of them and start with a six man rotation. This would not only allow greater effectiveness, but also leave an invaluable injury buffer, as an injury to any of our starting pitchers (and particularly the injury-prone Jeff Niemann) would barely impact the existing rotation. This seems an inefficient allocation of resources, however, given that the Rays could acquire much needed offensive talent by trading a starting pitcher, and given that Davis and Archer provide a similar (albeit slightly less reliable) injury buffer. As a result, the most likely outcome seems to be a trade.</p>
<p>Any of the starters (with the exception of <span>Matt Moore</span>) could find themselves realistically traded. Given the number of people looking for starting pitching at any given time and the varying packages that Price, Shields, Hellickson, Cobb, and Niemann would fetch in return, a ridiculous number of possible trade scenarios exist. Ultimately, the trade market is always fickle and a partner must be found, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays start with a six man rotation and hope for a climb in value or demand as the season progresses.</p>
<p>Here's what the rest of the staff has to say:</p>
<p><b>Bradley Woodrum</b>: I personally think Davis is no longer a rotation candidate. He has a 4.22 ERA and 4.55 FIP as a starter, and unless he can develop a legitimate third pitch, the <span class="il">Rays</span> -- and many other teams -- will be leaving Davis in the bullpen, where he is successful now. It would be great if the <span class="il">Rays</span> could find a trade for Niemann, that would be gravy. His injury concerns, well, concern me. Plus, I think the new TV money means the <span class="il">Rays</span> could hold onto Shields a little longer than originally expected. That being said, Big James is the most likely to see the door. Can the <span class="il">Rays</span> get a Matt Garza-type haul? I think, given Shields' Beuhrle-like durability, they should be able to meet or best the Garza trade.</p>
<p>But, with the pitching market rich with free agent talent, I would not be surprised to see the <span class="il">Rays</span> go until mid season before unloading any pitchers. They will not sell for a bad deal, so they may choose to gamble on their own staff's health and wait for injuries/ineffectiveness across the league before again testing the market.</p>
<p>Also, a potential package about which I'd be pleased: Shields to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a> for Conger, Bourjos, and C.J. Cron. That is similar to the trade <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/rays-angels-have-discussed-james-shields-trade.html" target="_blank">discussed near the deadline</a>, except in Ervin Santana's place is top Angels hitting prospect C.J. Cron. That price for Shields is way steeper, yes, but at the time this trade was initially discussed, Shield's had a 3.99 ERA -- and a 4.04 ERA on the precipice of the actual deadline -- and the Angels ended up getting <span>Zack Greinke</span> anyway.</p>
<p>Greinke's a free agent now, Haren and Wilson are full of red flags, and Santana's $13m team option would probably be better spent on Shields and something else. I could see the Angels making a push for a relatively cost-controlled Shields, though they may not be willing to part with Cron or the like until after a month or two into the season where <span>Jerome Williams</span> is starting and Haren or Wilson are struggling.</p>
<p><b>Jonathan Mitchell: </b>I agree with Brad, for the most part, but do think the <span class="il">Rays</span> will leverage at least one arm to improve the offense. Niemann cannot stay healthy and is making too much through arbitration. I think the <span class="il">Rays</span> would like to move him, but if they cannot, I would like to see him in the pen. I also think Hellickson is the one they trade. Hellickson, thanks to Boras being his agent, is not going to sign an extension. No longterm discount here. And due to his low ERA marks and winning the ROY he is likely to fetch a good payday next off season in arbitration but also fetch a good return via trade. I would not be shocked if Helly is the lone arm dealt.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><b>Steve Kinsella: </b>I disagree with Jon and Woody both. Wade Davis will be in a starting rotation to begin 2013 but not with the <span class="il">Rays</span>. As a matter of fact, I am so confident that he will be in a rotation somewhere that I'll set the original percentage of 80/20 towards it. His 4.22 ERA and 4.55 FIIP in the meaty AL East will look awfully nice to many NL team. His team friendly extension pulls a lot of teams into the mix both AL and NL.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Now, shifting the argument back toward Davis in the bullpen; if the <span class="il">Rays</span> hold on to him over the winter, then I expect him to be in the bullpen in 2013. I'd place that at 80/20 as well. Davis will be traded as a starter (which I believe will happen) or kept as a reliever (which I don't believe will happen).</p>
<p dir="ltr"><b>Jason Collette: </b>Davis does have a legitimate third pitch -- his cutter. He's never going to throw an effective changeup but if he can maintain the velocity he worked with last season, I see no reason why he can't be an effective 3/4 with a FB/CV/CT. Haren, Floyd, Wilson are examples of pitchers that are effective without good changeups. The big question is whether he can work 93-95 in the rotation as he did in the pen or if 89-92 going to be his norm in the rotation. If the latter is it, then leave him in the pen and maximize his potential given who is on the roster now.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><b>Jonathan Mitchell's reply:</b> <img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/images/cleardot.gif" tabindex="0" role="button" id=":1gv" class="ajz" data-tooltip="Show details">I would not doubt that a team would try Davis out as a starter again but I do doubt that he will hold his velocity in the 93-95 range. He posted positive run values with his FB, SL, and CB last year but never before with the SL and only once before (his 36 inning rookie year) with the CB. If someone believes it will carry over to the rotation then they will get a bargain if they trade for him but I see less than a 20% chance he can maintain it three times through a lineup. I hope I am wrong, though, because I really like Wade Davis but I expect him to be a key part of the <span class="il">Rays</span>' bullpen next season.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><i>...</i><a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2012/11/2/3589848/rays-roundtable-the-starting-pitching-surplus-pt-2" target="_blank"><i>Continue to Part 2</i></a><i>...</i></p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/11/2/3560112/rays-roundtable-the-starting-pitching-surplusPreet Patel2012-10-19T11:00:07-04:002012-10-19T11:00:07-04:00Rays Roundtable: BJ Upton, The Free Agent
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UxBmzR16IF79jiKX5Xt__0LYtSk=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1566411/20121003_kdl_sv7_116.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this edition of the Rays Roundtable, we look at what it'll take to net BJ Upton's talents as a free agent this off-season</p> <p>As we all know, BJ Upton is an impending free agent. This means that the week after the World Series concludes, he will be free to negotiate and sign with any team of his choice, be it the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> or another team.</p>
<p>It seems highly unlikely that BJ will re-sign with the Rays. Not only is he one of the more desirable free agents (in an admittedly talented pool of center fielders), but the Rays are also capable of substituting his position with the returned <span>Sam Fuld</span>. Although Sam Fuld is obviously not going to replace BJ's production, he'll create a fair amount of value at a significantly lower cost (i.e. the Rays way).</p>
<p>BJ's contract is a matter of a fair amount of disagreement. The old saying "it only takes one crazy GM" applies as always, but in a market with as many impact centerfielders available as there are, it seems highly unlikely BJ breaks into nine figure territory as some have suggested. My prediction is that BJ ends up receiving a deal of roughly 5 years and $65 million total. Although this is more than similar players have received recently, BJ has a combination of youth and intriguing potential on his side, with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> and Nats being the frontrunners to obtain his services. I went to the rest of the DRaysBay staff and asked for their opinions, for this edition of the Rays Roundtable.</p>
<p><b>Scott Grauer</b>: I think Upton will be looking at a contract around $30 million over three years. I expect the AAV to be about $10 million a year give or take a couple million, but since he's going to be one of the younger free agents, he could always get a longer deal. It's hard to find comparisons on the free agent market to look at because centerfielders haven't really hit the market much in recent years. Last off-season, <span>Coco Crisp</span> received $14 million over two years. No significant center fielder signed the off-season before that, and in the off-season before that, <span>Mike Cameron</span> got $15.5 million over two seasons. With a lack of center fielders on the market in recent years, I think the best comparison I could find was Jimmy Rollins. Both players play good defense at premium defensive positions, hit for some power but don't hit for high averages or OBP's. Rollins got 38 million over three years. I think Upton will get less because Rollins is more known for those intangibles that a lot of teams value and he had a big market team ready to overpay to keep him. This is also an unusually deep free agent class in center field; Upton will be competing with <span>Josh Hamilton</span>, <span>Michael Bourn</span>, <span>Angel Pagan</span> and Shane Victorino (and for the perpetually disappointed among us, Grady<span style="line-height: 9px;"> Sizemore).</span></p>
<p>Philadelphia strikes me as the top Upton suitor. There have been reports for about two months that Upton could be the Phillies' biggest target in free agency to maintain a high level of defense in center field and add some power into the lineup. It seems like Washington has been in Upton trade rumors for years now, and signing Upton would allow them to move <span>Michael Morse</span> to first base, and keep <span>Jayson Werth</span> and <span>Bryce Harper</span> in corner outfield spots which would result in a pretty decent defensive upgrade for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a>. However, former first rounder Brian Goodwin could soon be knocking on the door for Washington, and that could make them reluctant to offer Upton the years he might be able to get elsewhere. One more NL East team, Atlanta, is another possibility. If they're unable to re-sign Michael Bourn, Upton could help shore up one of the league's less impressive offenses against left handed pitching.</p>
<p><b>Jason Collette</b>: I see Upton going to the Phillies or the Nats for 5/60-75.</p>
<p>Of the 3 CF free agents on the open market, he's the youngest. We know the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/4464_2.gif" target="_blank">aging curve</a> for the position is earlier than it is for other players so teams looking at Bourn (30) or Victorino (32) may be scared to commit those types of years/dollars to older players.</p>
<p><b>Ryan Glass:</b> I predict 6/80. You heard it here first.</p>
<p><b>Jonathan Mitchell: </b>I see 5/70, with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a>, Nationals, and Phillies being his top suitors.</p>
<p><b>Ian Malinowski: </b>I'm on the 5/60 train, and I think he exceeds the contract in terms of value. His strong arm will ease a transition to right field when the speed erodes, and I think he should have plenty more 4 WAR years in him. My guess is Texas. If he goes to NY, I'll cry.</p>
<p><b> Bradley Woodrum:</b> I'ma guess 6/90. I'm thinking the Rangers, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>, and Phillies all make a play for him. If either the Yankees or Rangers are not in it, then the price will come down. If a few other teams -- the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a>, or Nats -- push hard for him, I would not be surprised if his total contract value exceeded 6/100 or even 6/110. But at the same time, the market is deep. So I could see him going 4/48 if he doesn't sign until, say, January or late December.</p>
<p><b>Daniel Russell: </b>I'm expecting 5 years for about $60 mil, broken out as: 3 years for $30 mil, with options at $12m and $15m, and about $5m in bonus incentives.</p>
<p>If the market recognizes Upton for the talent he is, I'm fully expecting him to land with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a>, Phillies, or Braves, competing with Michael Bourn and Angel Pagan. If either of those players are re-signed by their current teams then the decision is easier, but both players project at least 1.0 WAR above Upton right now, so they will sign first and Upton will place third.</p>
<p>If the market loses Upton in the shuffle, he may follow the path of Shane Victorino, who I expect to sign with DC or the Rangers on a 1-2 year deal. As Scott wrote, the Nationals have a prospect in the wings, so a long term deal for them seems unreasonable, and Texas seems likely to wait with the CF options coming next year (namely <span>Jacoby Ellsbury</span>, Curtis Granderson, and <span>Adam Jones</span>). Either team could take Upton on a 1 year/$14M deal with an option.</p>
<p>Wild Card: Much of the Masthead seems worried about the Yankees making a play, but I think the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> (who are waiting on <span>Jorge Soler</span>) or the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> (Michael Saunders) could enter the fray.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p><b>Michael Valancius: </b>I believe that BJ Upton will receive a 3-4 year deal in 45-60 million dollar range. It is incredibly difficult to predict how much a free agent is going to make. With a player as unusual as Upton, the equation is only more difficult. It only takes one team to have an unusually high amount of interest in Upton to escalate his contract's value. However, I find it hard to believe any team is going to hand much more than 15 million dollars to a player who is as streaky as Upton or who has his contact issues.</p>
<p>As far as who will sign Upton, I have no idea. The Rays should give the idea a thought if Upton's interest levels from other teams is lower than expected. Texas may be interested in replacing Hamilton with Upton. Who knows.... if Boston moves Ellsbury, they could even be interested. Center fielders are like catchers in that manner. If there is a good one available on the market, most teams will be interested.</p>
<p>*******</p>
<p>The staff consensus seems to be in the neighborhood of BJ geting a 5/60 deal, with the Phillies being the most popular name thrown out. Still, with as many teams in search of a centerfielder as there are, there's no doubt significant potential for a surprise.</p>
<p><i>Where do you think BJ will end up? Share your opinion in the comments!</i></p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/10/19/3518412/rays-roundtable-bj-upton-the-free-agentPreet Patel2012-10-12T11:00:23-04:002012-10-12T11:00:23-04:00Rays Roundtable: BJ Upton Memories
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/arTlBSotqRD1W9C6HcL44-IxzZg=/1x0:3999x2665/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/1048307/20121003_kdl_sv7_104.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this edition of the Rays Roundtable, the DRaysBay staff looks back at its favorite B.J. Upton moments</p> <p><i>This is the first edition of a new feature known as the "<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> Roundtable." Every week, I'll look at a Rays-relevant topic, and each of the staff members will briefly share their opinion on it.</i></p>
<p>At this point in time, it seems fairly safe to say that the Rays longest tenured member (one Melvin Emanuel "B.J." Upton) will most likely not be returning to the Rays. Over the years since his MLB debut against Boston at the Trop in '04, we've all cultivated our own opinions and sentiments regarding BJ. No matter what your stance, it's impossible to deny that BJ has been a key cog in the Rays massive turn around from "worst to first," and in the Rays success since 2008.</p>
<p>Indeed, it's no coincidence that BJ's finest hours are also the franchise's. We all remember BJ hitting 7 home runs in the wild World Series run of '08, where he muscled the Rays over Sox White and Red, with 3 ALDS and 4 ALDS jacks. He also drove in the walk-off run in the most thrilling win of the postseason, Game 2 of the ALCS. And who could forget BJ tying the game in the Rays final hour, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3649509&c_id=mlb" target="_blank">manufacturing a run all by himself against all odds and inclement weather in the heartbreaking 5th game of the World Series?</a></p>
<p>More recently, BJ created a wave of memories as the most crucial part of the Rays' magical September in 2011. Amidst trade rumors swirling around the struggling Rays and Upton, it looked nearly certain that BJ would be on his way out, with Ken Rosenthal going so far as to guarantee that "</p>
<p><a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/video/MLB?vid=b01016b0-c3df-4937-ab53-85ac0a6df715">Upton will be traded, trust me on that</a>". Fortunately, this ended up not being the case, as what, at the time, looked like a missed opportunity to bring in new talent instead ended with a night that will live on forever in the hearts of Rays fan. BJ was the key to setting up the night, and his September numbers speak for themselves. The Rays went from 9 games behind Boston to overtaking them, and BJ put up a .333/.432/.606 triple slash for that stretch.</p>
<p><iframe src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=19749249&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" frameborder="0" height="224" width="400"></iframe></p>
<p>Now let's look at some other BJ moments over the years that have stood out.</p>
<hr>
<p><b>Jason Collette:</b></p>
<p>This play:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/j6P51EnKWnc" frameborder="0" height="315" width="420"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p><b>Bradley Woodrum:</b></p>
<p>I will always remember <span>B.J. Upton</span> hitting for the cycle off <span>CC Sabathia</span> in 2009. In that particular year, it felt like Upton hitting the cycle in a 14-3 thwomping of the 103-win <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> was a small sign that the Rays would be back and better in 2010. The 2009 season was a bitter letdown after it felt like the 2008 team was good enough to win the World Series, but Upton helped end it on a fresh note.</p>
<p><iframe src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=6970183&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" frameborder="0" height="224" width="400"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p><b>Kevin Gengler:</b></p>
<p>My favorite BJ memory was when he coined the (now iconic) phrase "ball on a budget" at the St. Petersburg Bowl.</p>
<hr>
<p><b>Michael Valancius:</b></p>
<p>I'm going to have to agree with Brad and say that of all the memorable moments from BJ Upton, his hitting for the cycle stands out. Back then, before I understood or knew advanced statistics, terms like the Triple Crown, no-hitter, and hitting for the cycle held a very special meaning. They are still cool achievements even now, but their importance is less significant than I used to believe.</p>
<p>Anyway, BJ had been struggling all year long coming off of the shoulder injury. I didn't understand why he wasn't hitting like his 2007-2008 days. When BJ finally hit for the cycle, I became excited, thinking he was returning to the awesome form that he'd tantalized us with before, especially in the 2008 playoffs. I really think this was the beginning of the BJ Upton up and down cycle, in which us fans would predict he finally figured things out each time he had a hot streak.</p>
<p>Near the end of 2012, I think we finally accepted Upton as who he was instead of hoping he would be someone else. It is really unfortunate that is wasn't till the end of his Rays career that we came to accept this, but the roller coaster ride he sent us on from 2009-2012 was still incredibly enjoyable. He shall be missed.</p>
<hr>
<p><b>Scott Grauer: </b></p>
<p>My favorite Upton moment wasn't really about a specific game, but it goes back to spring training in 2007. Two seasons earlier, he was coming off a 50 error season at shortstop in the minors, and his defense at shortstop and third base in 2006 wasn't any better. There were serious concerns about which position he would be able to play, and he started getting more time in center field since the infield wasn't working out for him. I caught a game at Al Lang Field that year with Upton in center, and it looked like the position switch was going to work out. His reactions were good and he obviously had the athleticism to cover enough ground. In the end he became an above average defender at one of the most demanding positions on the field.</p>
<hr>
<p><b>Ian Malinowski:</b></p>
<p>I've always been a huge Upton fan and defender, and it's frustrated me to no end to see a fantastic player like Upton get grief for not being a league MVP. But my favorite Upton memory comes from the time before those expectations were unreasonable. Remember, in 2007, Upton hit .300/.386/.508. The following year, with a bum shoulder, he lost over a hundred points of slugging but his on-base skill remained strong, and the HR outburst in the playoffs hinted that his power stroke was still there.</p>
<p>Off-season surgery prevented Upton from making the opener in Boston. By the time he was ready to return, it was the home opener against the Yankees, and the Rays were 3-3, needing an injection of energy. Joe Maddon slotted Upton into the leadoff spot. The result? Three walks and a beautiful bunt single laid down the third base line. Upton stole second and third against Wang, and he did <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4127011&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_4127011&v=3">this</a> in the field, tracking back from the starburst to the wall to make one of what would eventually be many over the shoulder catches.</p>
<p>We didn't know 2009 would be the worst offensive season of Upton's career, as he worked his way back from the surgery. We didn't know that <span>Pat Burrell</span> would flop (he <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4130395&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_4130395&v=3">hit his first home run </a>of the year that night<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4130395&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_4130395&v=3" target="_blank"></a>), and we didn't know that 2009 was the beginning of the end for <span>Scott Kazmir</span> (<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4135433&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_4135433&v=3">who struck out six and walked none</a>). For that innocent home opener, <span>Nick Swisher</span> was the only Yankees pitcher who could slow down the Rays (<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4135439&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_4135439&v=3">worth watching again</a>), and Upton was the best leadoff hitter in baseball.</p>
<p>From being the #2 draft pick in 2002 to his probably last at bat as a Ray last Wednesday, BJ Upton's career has been a series of ups and downs that, as the fans can attest to, have brought lots of joy and frustration. Still, there's no doubt that BJ will always be remembered for being one of the central Rays on the first teams to bring glory to the Bay Area, and that the fans will keep many fond memories of his finest hours.</p>
<p><i>Do you have a favorite BJ memory that wasn't included above? Share it in the comments!</i></p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/10/12/3479076/rays-roundtable-bj-upton-memoriesPreet Patel2012-06-06T00:00:02-04:002012-06-06T00:00:02-04:00Early Season Trends Worth Keeping Track Of, Part 2
<figure>
<img alt="ST. PETERSBURG - JUNE 01: David Price, featuring more ground ballsiness (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nR4yj_1o8oW9w0qKWRiIDc5lhl8=/0x35:943x664/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/photo_images/7215219/145561330.jpg" />
<figcaption>ST. PETERSBURG - JUNE 01: David Price, featuring more ground ballsiness (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images) | Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p> </p>
<div>The previous piece looked at some surprising early season developments that are perhaps indicative of meaningful changes in players, or perhaps not. Here are three more. </div>
<ul style="padding-top: 5px; padding-right: 5px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 5px;">
<li style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 15px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">The <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> Rotation's Improved Ground Ball Tendencies</span></li>
</ul>
<div>Traditionally, the Rays rotation has not induced many ground balls. They've hovered at 3rd and 4th lowest in the league the previous two seasons, which is very bad considering that ground balls rarely go for extra bases, and never for home runs. This season, the boys have upped their game in this sphere with a rise to 4th best, and it isn't just one pitcher doing all the work.</div>
<div>
<table cellspacing="3" border="1" style="cursor: default;" width="390" cellpadding="1">
<colgroup><col span="6" width="65"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr height="15">
<td height="15" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;" width="65"></td>
<td style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;" width="65">Hellickson</td>
<td style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;" width="65">Price</td>
<td style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;" width="65">Shields</td>
<td style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;" width="65">Niemann</td>
<td style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;" width="65">Rotation</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15">
<td align="right" height="15" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">2011</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">35</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">44.3</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">46.2</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">46</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">42.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15">
<td align="right" height="15" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">2012</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">38.7</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">52.6</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">59</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">50.5</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">48.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15">
<td height="15" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">Change</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">3.7</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">8.3</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">12.8</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">4.5</td>
<td align="right" style="color: #000000; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; cursor: text; margin: 8px;">6.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px;"><span>James Shields</span> has clearly made the biggest improvement (and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/james-shields-becoming-an-ace/" style="color: #c8181d !important; text-decoration: none !important; background-color: transparent;">people have been taking notice</a>), but <span>David Price</span> has also made a huge step forward in this regard, while Hellickson and Niemann's improvements have been more modest. Overall, we see a significant improvement of 6.3% (which, all else equal, would mean a drop of roughly .2 runs every 9 innings). Given that ground ball rate for pitchers is something that stabilizes rapidly, it seems safe to assume the rotation ends the year above 42.1%. Hopefully, it stays significantly above there.</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span>Matt Joyce</span> Breaks Out, LHP Included</span></li>
</ul>
<div>Coming into the year, it seemed as though Matt Joyce had roughly established his offensive talent level in the major leagues, with him putting together identical wRC+s of 129 for 2010, 2011, and his career. A closer look shows mild improvement in 2011, as he faced a career high portion of plate appearances against lefties. This season, Matt Joyce has seemingly improved in every facet, with him walking more, striking out less, getting more hits, and hitting for more power. As a result, he's been the fourth best hitter in the American League, cobbling together a 168 wRC+ via a .295/.409/.545 triple slash. With Evan Longoria and <span>Desmond Jennings</span> being out of commission, Matt Joyce has been a huge part of why the Rays sit atop the AL East.</div>
<div>The big knock on Joyce has always been that he's a "platoon player", only capable of hitting right-handed pitching. This season this hasn't been the case, as Joyce has hit left-handed pitching to the tune of a 133 wRC+ from a .277/.382/.426 triple slash. His strikeout rate has dropped a decent amount and he's hitting the ball with a little more power against southpaws, and notably has done this while facing LHPs much less discriminately than in past. Indeed, Joyce has been playing nearly every day against lefties, unlike in past, where he only faced lefties the Rays thought he would succeed against.</div>
<div>Projecting Joyce going forward is fairly difficult. Against LHP, it's almost certain he won't maintain his performance thus far, considering that an unsustainable .367 BABIP is buoying it, but he could be anywhere between his numbers thus far this year to his much improved career mark of an 84 wRC+ (still not bad). Overall, ZiPS projection of a wOBA of .359 going forward is oddly pessimistic, considering that Joyce's career wOBA is .364 (albeit with disproportionately favorable platoon splits). Joyce's offensive production (particularly against lefties) going forward will be interesting to see, no doubt.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"><span>Matt Moore's</span> Bounce Back</span></li>
</ul>
<div>Superficially, Matt Moore's April and May are not all that different. Moore sported an ERA of 4.68 in his four April starts, and followed that with a 4.83 ERA the next month. His peripherals, on the other hand, tell a different story.</div>
</div>
<div>
<table cellspacing="3" border="1" cellpadding="1" width="455">
<colgroup><col width="65" span="7"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr height="15">
<td height="15" width="65"></td>
<td width="65">K%</td>
<td width="65">BB%</td>
<td width="65">GB%</td>
<td width="65">HR/FB%</td>
<td width="65">LOB%</td>
<td width="65">BABIP</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15">
<td height="15">April</td>
<td align="right">15.7</td>
<td align="right">13</td>
<td align="right">35.1</td>
<td align="right">11.1</td>
<td align="right">74.9</td>
<td align="right">0.288</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15">
<td height="15">May</td>
<td align="right">28.9</td>
<td align="right">9.9</td>
<td align="right">39</td>
<td align="right">13.9</td>
<td align="right">62.5</td>
<td align="right">0.317</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div><br></div>
<p>Now that's interesting. Moore improved across the board in the three true outcomes, most notably nearly doubling his strikeout rate. His "luck" influenced peripherals, on the other hand, all moved negatively. The difference between the type of pitcher he was each month is simply staggering, with April resulting in an xFIP of 5.39, and May in one of 3.66. Given Moore's penchant for slow starts, his previous track record of performance and pedigree, and my unending optimism, I'm inclined to believe that Matt Moore's May is more indicative of his ability than his April. If the inputs keep coming in this well, given Tropicana Field and the Rays defense, the results are sure to follow.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/6/6/3062013/early-season-trends-worth-keeping-track-of-part-2Preet Patel2012-06-05T11:15:08-04:002012-06-05T11:15:08-04:00Early Season Trends Worth Keeping Track Of, Part 1
<figure>
<img alt="June 3, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays center fielder BJ Upton (2) hits a 2-RBI double against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Griffith-US PRESSWIRE" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sRJWiYoYqhQMS5tWf7ieVgfsTnc=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/photo_images/7249250/20120603_lbm_sx7_166.jpg" />
<figcaption>June 3, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays center fielder BJ Upton (2) hits a 2-RBI double against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Griffith-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the first month of the season, the refrain "Small Sample Size" is repeated until everyone is sick of hearing it. Meaningful conclusions are few and far between, and crazy things are guaranteed to happen. The baseball starved fan devours the information coming at him, but tends to intuitively know to take it with a grain of salt. With another month firmly in the rear view mirror, however, there is a tendency to take what a player has done as what he will do. Still, it's a tad premature to make decisive statements.</p>
<p>As a result, this article will look at a few developments from the season thus far that are worth keeping track of going forward.</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Minor League Honorable Mention: Josh Sale's breakout</span></li>
</ul>
<p>You're all most likely familiar with Josh Sale's story but here's a brief recap. After being the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> first round pick in 2010, Sale struggled mightily in 2011. His performance was awful and some scouts claimed his swing looked ugly. This season, Sale is absolutely annihilating the ball. He's getting on base half the time, is walking more than he's striking out, and has hit 7 home runs in 20 games, producing an eye-popping triple slash of .368/.500/.807 thus far. Yes it's only A-ball, and yes it's only been 76 PA, but Sale hasn't just been putting up <span>Joey Votto</span> caliber numbers, he's been putting up 01-04 <span>Barry Bonds</span> caliber numbers. He probably isn't actually this good, but it also seems safe to say he isn't as bad as last season. Only time will tell how good he actually is.</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span>B.J. Upton</span>'s BABIP Shift</span></li>
</ul>
<div>Among the numerous BJ Upton debates over the years, one aspect that appears to have gone largely ignored is his befuddling BABIP. A hitter's BABIP is roughly his rate of hits on balls in play, and it's widely accepted that although BABIP is acutely volatile, in the long-run, it is extremely stable, and a function of speed, batted ball profile, and how hard the hitter hits the ball. Generally speaking, a player's BABIP after thousands of plate appearances is static, barring decline with age/injury or opposing teams employing shifts (the main reason Pena's batting average has plummeted from his early career levels), and the recent exceptions to this can be counted on one hand.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>BJ Upton is among these exceptions. From 2004-2008, he put up a BABIP of .355 over 1500+ plate appearances. Although this is an extremely high level, BJ profiled as the type of player who could maintain a BABIP in this vicinity by virtue of his speed and high ground ball rate. He then followed this up with a head-scratching BABIP of .304 in 2009-2011, over an even larger sample size. Such a dramatic change in true talent level is unheard of. The only obvious underlying change is a drop in ground ball rate, but even when players change their approaches, their BABIPs generally don't shift so significantly.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>This season thus far, BJ has put together a BABIP of .343, closer to his career mark of .328 than either of the two extremes above. As a result he's offensively producing at his highest level since 2008. If BJ maintains this, and brings his walk rates back to his career mark, he has the potential to be an star center fielder this season. Sadly, I'm more inclined to believe his true talent BABIP is closer to the .304 of the last few seasons than his career mark, since I don't think his performance in 04 is indicative of his ability today. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span>Elliot Johnson's</span> Overall Lack of Offensive Suckitude</span></li>
</ul>
<p>Coming into this season, the general consensus on Elliot Johnson was that he was roughly a replacement level player, perhaps marginally better. With injuries forcing the Rays hand, EJ has been playing nearly every game in the last few weeks. In that time, he's opened many eyes. It's fair to say that no one was expecting a .255/.333/.364 triple slash (104 wRC+). Even more encouraging is a look at his offensive peripherals--his walk rate (9.5%), strikeout rate (24.6%), ISO (.109) and BABIP (.329) all appear to be slightly better than what we expected. Better yet, none of them seem ridiculously unsustainable, although his walk rate will almost certainly decrease.</p>
<p>ZiPS ROS projects EJ to regress across the board (other than power) and put up a .288 wOBA going forward. Even this would leave him a useful bench player at shortstop, albeit not an every day player. Still, considering that walk and strikeout rates gain significance rapidly, it also seems as though there's a very decent chance he performs above this mark going forward. It's worth taking note of, certainly.</p>
<p>In the follow up installment: The Rays starting staff has learned a new trick, and we look at recent developments for the team's Matts.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/6/5/3035466/five-early-season-trends-worth-keeping-track-ofPreet Patel2012-04-12T17:02:00-04:002012-04-12T17:02:00-04:00Rays Drop Rubber Match Against Tigers as Offense Proves Insufficient
<figure>
<img alt="April 12, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (34) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eIMihp27xpSrCoh9g3X4jkoFaWc=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/photo_images/6449848/20120412_jel_aa1_490.jpg" />
<figcaption>April 12, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (34) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was a fairly disappointing loss. The <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> were facing off against <span>Drew Smyly</span>, in his major league debut, sending <span>Jeff Niemann</span> to the mound in his season debut. In the end, the offense's inability to drive in runs and the relief pitching's inability to keep the game close led to the Rays scoring fewer runs than their opposition, resulting in a loss and knocking them down to 4-2 on the season.<br><br>Both starting pitchers were fairly effective through 4 innings. Jeff Niemann was flat out dominant during this stretch. He struck out 4 hitters (including <span>Miguel Cabrera</span> twice) and had a 50% ground ball rate, allowing just a pair of base runners on weak hits and stifling the Tiger offense. The Rays continually mounted threats, including a bases loaded no out situation in the first, and runners in scoring position in the 3rd and 4th, but couldn't GTMI, with the only run coming off of another home run from <span>Carlos Pena</span>.</p>
<p>The fifth inning would prove to be the Rays and Niemann's undoing. Despite notching a pair of strikeouts, Niemann surrendered two walks and two hits, which led to three <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Tigers</a> runs scoring, giving them a lead they would not surrender. That would be it for Niemann, because although he still appeared to be effective in this inning, by its end he reached 102 pitches.</p>
<p>The Rays again mounted a threat against the Tigers bullpen in the seventh inning, as a Longoria RBI single led to two men on with nobody out, and the Rays within 1 run. <span>Jeff Keppinger</span> lined into a double play in what resulted in a turning point in the game. After this, the Rays were never even close.</p>
<p>The Rays bullpen pitched rather poorly as well. JP Howell pitched a 1-2-3 6th inning, certainly a positive sign. This would be followed by the tandem of <span>Wade Davis</span> and <span>Jake McGee</span> surrendering two runs (Davis allowing the base runners and McGee allowing them to score), and <span>Joel Peralta</span> surrendering a pair of runs on a single, triple, and wild pitch. Obviously this is not what Rays fans want to see.</p>
<p>The Rays will head to Boston tomorrow to kick off a four game series. Although losing the series in Detroit is not what anyone had in mind, the win yesterday against Verlander allows the Rays to save some face and maintain their standing at the top of the scoreboard. Hopefully the boys bring their A-game in the series in Fenway.</p>
<p>Notes:</p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">JP Howell owes his perfect inning to <span>Matt Joyce</span>, who, as Brian Anderson would put it, made a "right on the money" throw to nab <span>Delmon Young</span> trying to convert his hit into a double.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Carlos Pena took a pitch to the wrist area in the 5th inning. Although he appeared to be fine, I'd rather he never take a pitch there again, particularly with him on such a hot streak (which he extended today, going 4-5 with a home run).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px;">Overall, today the Rays appeared to be victims of bad luck as much as anything else. They only scored 1 of their 12 base runners (that too on a home run), with untimely strikeouts and a line out into a double play. The pitching kept the ball out of the stands, recorded 8 punchouts, and only surrendered a pair of walks.</span></li>
</ul>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/4/12/2944426/rays-drop-rubber-match-against-tigers-as-offense-proves-insufficientPreet Patel2012-04-07T10:00:19-04:002012-04-07T10:00:19-04:002012 Season Preview: The Ides of April
<figure>
<img alt="David Price-Smiling because he doesn't realize he's doooooomed.
Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YctynvB9fbq0WyWvNggoTmN4pz0=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/photo_images/6116967/20120321_jel_ah6_219.jpg" />
<figcaption>David Price-Smiling because he doesn't realize he's doooooomed.
Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although the season preview series has looked at all members of the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> active roster, there's one other thing that should be considered when looking forward to the start of the year. As the title to this article suggests, the Rays schedule in the first month could well serve as a knife to the back. Take a look at the series lying ahead:</p>
<p>4/6-4/8 vs NYY</p>
<p>4/10-4/12 @ DET</p>
<p>4/13-4/16 @ BOS</p>
<p>4/17-4/19 @ TOR</p>
<p>4/20-4/22 vs MIN</p>
<p>4/24-4/26 vs LAA</p>
<p>4/27-4/29 vs TEX</p>
<p> </p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px;">For those of you too lazy to do the math, this comes to 19 out of the 22 games being against the basically indisputable top six teams in the league. The Rays will have a total of two rest days during this span. Their opposition, according to PECOTA, is aggregately projected to be on the level of an 86 win ball club, or, if you prefer Cool Standings, an 87 win ball club. That's pretty staggering.</p>
<p>In addition to being just plain good, these teams also have juggernaut offenses. Last season, <span>Paul Konerko</span> and <span>Alex Gordon</span> were the only two hitters in the AL who weren't on one of the above teams or the Rays to break the .350 wOBA mark. There were 29 other hitters who pulled off the feat, all of whom can be found on one of said teams. Don't expect the Rays pitching+defense combination to be limiting the opposition to a couple runs with regularity.</p>
<p>David Price is particularly screwed over by this sequence. His schedule out of the gates? New York, Boston, Toronto, LA, and Texas. Last year, these teams averaged a whopping 4.94 runs per game, compared to the MLB average of 4.28. Note that this is before the addition of the best hitter in baseball.</p>
<p>In summary, any Rays fans would do well to follow Douglas Adams's immortal advice: "Don't Panic". If the Rays end the stretch 9-13, it's nothing to be concerned about. If <span>David Price's</span> ERA (and even his FIP) is in the neighborhood of 4.5, rest assured it'll come down when he's pitted against the bat-less lineups in the northwest. And above all else, make sure you enjoy the month; even if the Rays don't end every game like <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_04_06_nyamlb_tbamlb_1&mode=gameday&c_id=tb">Friday's</a> thriller, it sure as hell beats the off-season.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2012/4/7/2931436/2012-season-preview-the-ides-of-aprilPreet Patel